TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13037418
Played Aug 29Finished
Vitalii Mukhin
Home
1.30
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 6
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
6111171141012111
Oleh Ponomarenko
Away
3.40
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:20 and never touched — 78.6% is still 78.6%
Graded at full timeVitalii Mukhin to win
78.6%
78.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVitalii Mukhin above · Oleh Ponomarenko below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 11-1
Point 84 set 5, 11-1 — our read held Vitalii Mukhin at 78.6%
84 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Mukhin 17–5 Oleh Ponomarenko Oleh Ponomarenko has won 5 of their 22 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:20What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Mukhin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-5 in 22
Mukhin
Correct
gap of 12 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mukhin 1183 vs Ponomarenko 1067
Mukhin
Correct
both rated, 116 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mukhin 0% vs Ponomarenko 20%
Ponomarenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mukhin 20% vs Ponomarenko 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mukhin -5 · Ponomarenko -2
Mukhin
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Mukhin)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mukhin form (0%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMukhin 1.30 / Ponomarenko 3.40
Signal prob.79% / 21%
Edge (Mukhin)+6.3pp
Setka Cup · #13037418
Mukhin1.30
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite63% won 87 of 139
Up 2–0, closes it96% 48 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it77% 64 of 83
Ponomarenko3.40
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 49 of 147
Down 0–1, comes back17% 14 of 83
Down 0–2, comes back9% 5 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMukhin9wins
AwayPonomarenko1wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMukhin leads 9–1, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMukhin85.7%6 of 7
AwayPonomarenko0%0 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mukhin7Ponomarenko3n = 10Mukhin took 7 of 10
S2Mukhin6Ponomarenko4n = 10Mukhin took 6 of 10
S3Mukhin5Ponomarenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Mukhin8Ponomarenko0n = 8Mukhin took 8 of 8
S5Mukhin3Ponomarenko1n = 4Mukhin took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMukhinPonomarenkoM − PBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match43.636.8+6.8per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMukhinPonomarenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime139 / 280 vs 305 / 65149.6%46.9%139 / 280 vs 305 / 651Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.435.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MukhinMukhin 1.30/Ponomarenko 3.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
78.6%
Mukhin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Mukhin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 2 · 08:50V. Mukhin—11915123O. Ponomarenko—51113101
WJul 31 · 12:00V. Mukhin—1313911113O. Ponomarenko—151111982
WJul 11 · 10:30V. Mukhin—11119123O. Ponomarenko—6611101
WJul 5 · 11:50V. Mukhin—761111113O. Ponomarenko—11117772
WJul 4 · 11:05V. Mukhin—11116113O. Ponomarenko—991181
WJun 30 · 10:30V. Mukhin—13119113O. Ponomarenko—1151131
WJun 24 · 13:40V. Mukhin—1111113O. Ponomarenko—9960
LMar 23 · 05:30V. Mukhin—115111182O. Ponomarenko—711135113
WMar 19 · 11:40V. Mukhin—1311113O. Ponomarenko—11940
WMar 18 · 08:30V. Mukhin—941111113O. Ponomarenko—11118252
V. Mukhin10
WSep 5 · 11:05V. Mukhin1.361111113V. Stukalov3.009850WSep 5 · 09:35V. Mukhin1.201111113O. Stopin4.339760WSep 5 · 08:05V. Mukhin1.571112113V. Kucheriavyi2.2561020WSep 5 · 06:35V. Mukhin1.44911118113V. Varchenko2.6311641152LSep 5 · 05:05V. Mukhin1.4411126762S. Semenets2.639101111113LSep 4 · 18:00V. Mukhin2.6311119342Y. Korotin1.44981111113LSep 4 · 16:30V. Mukhin2.6386100S. Yakimenko1.441111123WSep 4 · 15:00V. Mukhin1.401111912133S. Semenets2.75671114112WSep 4 · 13:30V. Mukhin2.3811147113M. Khalenko1.535121151WSep 4 · 12:00V. Mukhin1.9151111113D. Khavanskyi1.80117591
O. Ponomarenko10
LAug 30 · 11:05V. Mukhin1.221112113O. Ponomarenko4.0011050WAug 30 · 10:05O. Ponomarenko1.50591111113M. Tkalich2.5011114562LAug 30 · 09:05O. Ponomarenko2.758370D. Khavanskyi1.401111113LAug 30 · 07:35O. Ponomarenko1.919490S. Osipov1.801111113LAug 30 · 05:35O. Ponomarenko2.6310330S. Semenets1.441211113WAug 29 · 12:20V. Stukalov1.441111116102O. Ponomarenko2.63913611123LAug 29 · 11:20D. Khavanskyi1.33111158113O. Ponomarenko3.2579111172LAug 29 · 09:50O. Stopin1.281111113O. Ponomarenko3.506830LAug 29 · 07:50S. Semenets1.408101111113O. Ponomarenko2.7511122882LAug 26 · 11:30O. Ponomarenko2.385550S. Semenets1.531111113
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