TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079000
Played Sep 5Finished
Vitalii Mukhin
Home
1.36
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119118115––––
Vladyslav Stukalov
Away
3.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:48 and never touched — 70.4% is still 70.4%
Graded at full timeVitalii Mukhin to win
70.4%
70.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVitalii Mukhin above · Vladyslav Stukalov below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 55 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Vitalii Mukhin at 70.4%
55 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Mukhin 23–8 Vladyslav Stukalov Vladyslav Stukalov has won 8 of their 31 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:48What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Mukhin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-8 in 31
Mukhin
Correct
gap of 15 in 31, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mukhin 1276 vs Stukalov 1250
Mukhin
Correct
both rated, 26 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mukhin 60% vs Stukalov 20%
Mukhin
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mukhin 70% vs Stukalov 50%
Mukhin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mukhin +3 · Stukalov -1
Mukhin
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Mukhin) · live re-read · sealed at 70% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stukalov form (20%) is below what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMukhin 1.36 / Stukalov 3.00
Signal prob.71% / 29%
Edge (Mukhin)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13079000
Mukhin1.36
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 94 of 149
Up 2–0, closes it96% 53 of 55
Up 1–0, closes it79% 70 of 89
Stukalov3.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog46% won 102 of 220
Down 0–1, comes back21% 25 of 119
Down 0–2, comes back10% 7 of 70
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMukhin8wins
AwayStukalov2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMukhin leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMukhin87.5%7 of 8
AwayStukalovn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mukhin8Stukalov2n = 10Mukhin took 8 of 10
S2Mukhin7Stukalov3n = 10Mukhin took 7 of 10
S3Mukhin7Stukalov3n = 10Mukhin took 7 of 10
S4Mukhin4Stukalov3n = 7Mukhin took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMukhinStukalovM − SBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match38.228.7+9.5per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMukhinStukalovBasisWin rate · lifetime152 / 299 vs 409 / 81150.8%50.4%152 / 299 vs 409 / 811Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.536.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MukhinMukhin 1.36/Stukalov 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
71.2%
Mukhin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Mukhin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 18 · 09:00V. Mukhin—71211113V. Stukalov—1110821
LAug 5 · 12:00V. Mukhin—381171V. Stukalov—11112113
WJul 20 · 09:00V. Mukhin—11611113V. Stukalov—711691
WJul 19 · 10:40V. Mukhin—1111113V. Stukalov—7960
WJul 13 · 09:00V. Mukhin—12117113V. Stukalov—1051141
WJun 22 · 09:35V. Mukhin—1111113V. Stukalov—4190
WJun 14 · 09:35V. Mukhin—11511113V. Stukalov—311181
WJun 10 · 10:30V. Mukhin—1111113V. Stukalov—2570
LJun 8 · 09:00V. Mukhin—111161052V. Stukalov—571112113
WJun 6 · 09:35V. Mukhin—1111127113V. Stukalov—35141162
V. Mukhin10
WSep 5 · 09:35V. Mukhin1.201111113O. Stopin4.339760WSep 5 · 08:05V. Mukhin1.571112113V. Kucheriavyi2.2561020WSep 5 · 06:35V. Mukhin1.44911118113V. Varchenko2.6311641152LSep 5 · 05:05V. Mukhin1.4411126762S. Semenets2.639101111113LSep 4 · 18:00V. Mukhin2.6311119342Y. Korotin1.44981111113LSep 4 · 16:30V. Mukhin2.6386100S. Yakimenko1.441111123WSep 4 · 15:00V. Mukhin1.401111912133S. Semenets2.75671114112WSep 4 · 13:30V. Mukhin2.3811147113M. Khalenko1.535121151WSep 4 · 12:00V. Mukhin1.9151111113D. Khavanskyi1.80117591WAug 30 · 11:05V. Mukhin1.221112113O. Ponomarenko4.0011050
V. Stukalov10
WSep 7 · 06:20V. Stukalov1.831111113S. Semenets1.835930LSep 5 · 10:05V. Stukalov1.8312711692V. Kucheriavyi1.831011511113WSep 5 · 09:05V. Stukalov1.831511153S. Semenets1.83137130LSep 5 · 07:35V. Stukalov1.53117991O. Stopin2.3841111113LSep 5 · 05:35V. Stukalov2.001012471V. Varchenko1.73121011113LSep 3 · 11:35V. Stukalov2.0011911492M. Khalenko1.73111911113LSep 3 · 09:35D. Khavanskyi1.611111113V. Stukalov2.206740WSep 3 · 08:35V. Stukalov1.8311512113S. Semenets1.839111061WSep 3 · 07:35V. Korniichuk1.3671111882V. Stukalov3.00119611113WSep 3 · 06:05V. Stukalov1.2011911113S. Osipov4.33611561
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