TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067697
Played Sep 3Finished
Vladyslav Stukalov
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1195111210116––
Serhii Semenets
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:39 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSerhii Semenets to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingVladyslav Stukalov above · Serhii Semenets below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 75 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Serhii Semenets at 54.0%
75 points played in total.
H2H Vladyslav Stukalov 31–39 Serhii Semenets Vladyslav Stukalov has won 31 of their 70 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:39What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Semenets
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
31-39 in 70
Semenets
Wrong
gap of 8 in 70, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stukalov 1295 vs Semenets 1250
Stukalov
Correct
both rated, 45 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stukalov 80% vs Semenets 40%
Stukalov
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stukalov 70% vs Semenets 40%
Stukalov
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stukalov +4 · Semenets -2
Stukalov
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Semenets)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Semenets form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStukalov 1.83 / Semenets 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Semenets)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13067697
Stukalov1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Semenets1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStukalov6wins
AwaySemenets4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderStukalov leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStukalov100%5 of 5
AwaySemenets80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stukalov5Semenets5n = 10split evenly
S2Stukalov5Semenets5n = 10split evenly
S3Stukalov7Semenets3n = 10Stukalov took 7 of 10
S4Stukalov5Semenets2n = 7Stukalov took 5 of 7
S5Stukalov2Semenets2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricStukalovSemenetsStukalov − SemenetsBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.238.3+1.9per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStukalovSemenetsBasisWin rate · lifetime411 / 813 vs 417 / 82850.6%50.4%411 / 813 vs 417 / 828Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.537.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SemenetsStukalov 1.83/Semenets 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Semenets · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Stukalov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 29 · 06:50V. Stukalov—311541S. Semenets—11711113
LAug 26 · 08:00V. Stukalov—6811141S. Semenets—11118163
WAug 24 · 05:35V. Stukalov—12811113S. Semenets—1011931
WAug 22 · 08:30V. Stukalov—511411113S. Semenets—11511952
LAug 18 · 05:30V. Stukalov—89121182S. Semenets—1111109113
WAug 8 · 05:30V. Stukalov—1113123S. Semenets—611100
LAug 5 · 17:30V. Stukalov—951715102S. Semenets—11111513123
WJul 28 · 08:00V. Stukalov—1111113S. Semenets—8670
WMay 19 · 07:35V. Stukalov—116911113S. Semenets—51111672
WMay 18 · 08:00V. Stukalov—1111133S. Semenets—46110
V. Stukalov10
WSep 7 · 06:20V. Stukalov1.831111113S. Semenets1.835930LSep 5 · 11:05V. Mukhin1.361111113V. Stukalov3.009850LSep 5 · 10:05V. Stukalov1.8312711692V. Kucheriavyi1.831011511113WSep 5 · 09:05V. Stukalov1.831511153S. Semenets1.83137130LSep 5 · 07:35V. Stukalov1.53117991O. Stopin2.3841111113LSep 5 · 05:35V. Stukalov2.001012471V. Varchenko1.73121011113LSep 3 · 11:35V. Stukalov2.0011911492M. Khalenko1.73111911113LSep 3 · 09:35D. Khavanskyi1.611111113V. Stukalov2.206740WSep 3 · 07:35V. Korniichuk1.3671111882V. Stukalov3.00119611113WSep 3 · 06:05V. Stukalov1.2011911113S. Osipov4.33611561
S. Semenets10
LSep 7 · 07:20V. Korniichuk1.53111011113S. Semenets2.38912471LSep 7 · 06:20V. Stukalov1.831111113S. Semenets1.835930LSep 5 · 11:35O. Stopin1.915111011133S. Semenets1.80115126112WSep 5 · 10:35V. Varchenko2.6310119121S. Semenets1.4412811143LSep 5 · 09:05V. Stukalov1.831511153S. Semenets1.83137130WSep 5 · 07:05V. Kucheriavyi1.831111361S. Semenets1.8313811113WSep 5 · 05:05V. Mukhin1.4411126762S. Semenets2.639101111113LSep 4 · 19:00S. Semenets2.25811891M. Khalenko1.5711511113WSep 4 · 17:00Y. Korotin1.91100S. Semenets1.80121LSep 4 · 15:00V. Mukhin1.401111912133S. Semenets2.75671114112
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