TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13043787
Played Aug 30Finished
Sergey Osipov
Home
1.22
At publish
Won last 8Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 8
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1311117115––––
Maksym Tkalich
Away
4.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:29 and never touched — 74.7% is still 74.7%
Graded at full timeSergey Osipov to win
74.7%
74.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSergey Osipov above · Maksym Tkalich below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 58 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Sergey Osipov at 74.7%
58 points played in total.
H2H Sergey Osipov 11–3 Maksym Tkalich Maksym Tkalich has won 3 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:29What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.22 (77%)
Osipov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-3 in 14
Osipov
Correct
gap of 8 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Osipov 1170 vs Tkalich 915
Osipov
Correct
both rated, 255 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Osipov 100% vs Tkalich 60%
Osipov
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Osipov 90% vs Tkalich 30%
Osipov
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Osipov +5 · Tkalich -2
Osipov
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 78% — Strong (leans Osipov) · live re-read · sealed at 75% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkalich form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (25%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOsipov 1.22 / Tkalich 4.00
Signal prob.78% / 22%
Edge (Osipov)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13043787
Osipov1.22
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 8
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite75% won 36 of 48
Up 2–0, closes it100% 23 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it91% 30 of 33
Tkalich4.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog36% won 33 of 91
Down 0–1, comes back19% 9 of 47
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOsipov8wins
AwayTkalich2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderOsipov leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOsipov100%6 of 6
AwayTkalich50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Osipov6Tkalich4n = 10Osipov took 6 of 10
S2Osipov8Tkalich2n = 10Osipov took 8 of 10
S3Osipov8Tkalich2n = 10Osipov took 8 of 10
S4Osipov5Tkalich0n = 5Osipov took 5 of 5
S5Osipov1Tkalich2n = 3Tkalich took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricOsipovTkalichO − TBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.431.7+6.7per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOsipovTkalichBasisWin rate · lifetime138 / 284 vs 114 / 25648.6%44.5%138 / 284 vs 114 / 256Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.136.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OsipovOsipov 1.22/Tkalich 4.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
78.2%
Osipov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Osipov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 30 · 06:05S. Osipov—1311113M. Tkalich—11750
WJul 19 · 07:05S. Osipov—11911113M. Tkalich—411491
WJul 12 · 12:40S. Osipov—1911113M. Tkalich—17490
LMay 24 · 12:05S. Osipov—61371272M. Tkalich—11111110113
LMay 9 · 19:00S. Osipov—44111132M. Tkalich—111176113
WMay 3 · 13:40S. Osipov—1111113M. Tkalich—6880
WMay 2 · 11:30S. Osipov—101111113M. Tkalich—122971
WApr 25 · 06:30S. Osipov—1111113M. Tkalich—8990
WApr 18 · 07:05S. Osipov—711611113M. Tkalich—11611672
WJan 3 · 12:00S. Osipov—1111113M. Tkalich—7640
S. Osipov10
LSep 3 · 12:05S. Osipov2.258780S. Semenets1.571111113LSep 3 · 10:05V. Korniichuk1.20111011113S. Osipov4.33712541WSep 3 · 08:05D. Khavanskyi1.25126531S. Osipov3.75101111113LSep 3 · 07:05S. Osipov2.7511811842M. Khalenko1.40811811113LSep 3 · 06:05V. Stukalov1.2011911113S. Osipov4.33611561LAug 30 · 11:35S. Osipov2.639640D. Khavanskyi1.441111113WAug 30 · 09:35V. Mukhin1.445780S. Osipov2.631111113LAug 30 · 08:35S. Osipov2.50611121182S. Semenets1.50119147113WAug 30 · 07:35O. Ponomarenko1.919490S. Osipov1.801111113WAug 28 · 18:00O. Efimov3.25311361S. Osipov1.3311911113
M. Tkalich10
WSep 6 · 12:05K. Tsoi3.501110871M. Tkalich1.2861211113LSep 6 · 10:35M. Tkalich1.4065111182S. Kuzko2.75111157113LSep 6 · 08:35V. Mykhalchenko1.361351611113M. Tkalich3.00111118782LSep 6 · 06:35D. Kunchurov1.671191011113M. Tkalich2.1081112982WSep 6 · 05:35M. Zaiats1.678750M. Tkalich2.101111113LSep 5 · 11:30V. Mykhalchenko1.4461111113M. Tkalich2.63115551LSep 5 · 10:00M. Tkalich1.833150D. Kunchurov1.831111113WSep 5 · 08:00M. Mykhailenko5.00711651M. Tkalich1.1411911113LSep 5 · 05:00K. Vernudin1.9171111113M. Tkalich1.80116961LAug 30 · 12:05M. Tkalich3.402370S. Semenets1.301111113
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