TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13088739
Played Sep 7Finished
Oleksandr Leonenko
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
118119511511115
Andrii Martyniuk
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:15 and never touched — 57.2% is still 57.2%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Leonenko to win
57.2%
57.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Leonenko above · Andrii Martyniuk below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 87 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Oleksandr Leonenko at 57.2%
87 points played in total.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:15What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Martyniuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Leonenko 1457 vs Martyniuk 1498
Martyniuk
Wrong
both rated, 41 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Leonenko 40% vs Martyniuk 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Leonenko 70% vs Martyniuk 50%
Leonenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Leonenko -2 · Martyniuk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Martyniuk) · live re-read · sealed at 43% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Martyniuk form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLeonenko 1.91 / Martyniuk 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Martyniuk)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13088739
Leonenko1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 75 of 173
Down 0–1, comes back22% 20 of 93
Down 0–2, comes back10% 6 of 60
Martyniuk1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 53 of 87
Up 2–0, closes it91% 31 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it68% 38 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricLeonenkoMartyniukBasisWin rate · lifetime434 / 838 vs 165 / 32051.8%51.6%434 / 838 vs 165 / 320Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MartyniukLeonenko 1.91/Martyniuk 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Martyniuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Leonenko won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
O. Leonenko10
LSep 6 · 18:30O. Leonenko1.9139111192S. Baranskyi1.80111164113LSep 6 · 16:30V. Smyk2.631112113O. Leonenko1.4481080WSep 6 · 15:30O. Leonenko1.5011119113O. Ovsiienko2.50891171LSep 6 · 14:30B. Zaika1.4411112O. Leonenko2.63560WSep 6 · 13:00O. Leonenko1.611111613103K. Klymenko2.2047111552WSep 3 · 12:20O. Leonenko1.509111110113O. Ovsiienko2.5011971212WSep 3 · 10:20M. Stetsenko1.809117101O. Leonenko1.9111811123WSep 3 · 09:20O. Leonenko1.831111143A. Kovalenko1.8387120WSep 3 · 08:20K. Klymenko2.20118111132O. Leonenko1.61711413113WSep 3 · 06:50O. Leonenko2.631111113O. Mytsyk1.449680
A. Martyniuk10
WSep 7 · 06:35K. Klymenko2.639780A. Martyniuk1.441111113LAug 31 · 12:05A. Martyniuk1.73913912112S. Solomko2.0011111110133WAug 31 · 10:05S. Skhabitskiy3.2512311762A. Martyniuk1.331011911113LAug 31 · 08:05V. Kolesnykov1.67101111113A. Martyniuk2.10127861WAug 31 · 07:05A. Martyniuk1.361111812113E. Populovskyi3.0066111472LAug 31 · 06:05A. Kovalenko2.63611612113A. Martyniuk1.44117111052WAug 29 · 18:30A. Martyniuk1.2531111113O. Osadchyi3.75117881LAug 29 · 16:30S. Solomko2.1081611123A. Martyniuk1.6711149101LAug 29 · 15:30A. Martyniuk1.53991151O. Tymofeev2.3811119113WAug 29 · 14:30F. Voinarovskyi3.006113111A. Martyniuk1.3611711133
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