TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13049326
Played Aug 31Finished
Andrii Martyniuk
Home
1.36
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1161168111214117
Eduard Populovskyi
Away
3.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:51 and never touched — 72.8% is still 72.8%
Graded at full timeAndrii Martyniuk to win
72.8%
72.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAndrii Martyniuk above · Eduard Populovskyi below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 12-14
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 97 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Andrii Martyniuk at 72.8%
97 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Martyniuk 13–6 Eduard Populovskyi Eduard Populovskyi has won 6 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:51What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Martyniuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-6 in 19
Martyniuk
Correct
gap of 7 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Martyniuk 1498 vs Populovskyi 1426
Martyniuk
Correct
both rated, 72 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Martyniuk 40% vs Populovskyi 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Martyniuk 40% vs Populovskyi 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Martyniuk -1 · Populovskyi +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Martyniuk) · live re-read · sealed at 73% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Martyniuk form (40%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMartyniuk 1.36 / Populovskyi 3.00
Signal prob.72% / 28%
Edge (Martyniuk)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13049326
Martyniuk1.36
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 58 of 95
Up 2–0, closes it92% 34 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it68% 42 of 62
Populovskyi3.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog33% won 51 of 155
Down 0–1, comes back19% 18 of 97
Down 0–2, comes back7% 5 of 68
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMartyniuk8wins
AwayPopulovskyi2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMartyniuk leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMartyniuk77.8%7 of 9
AwayPopulovskyin = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Martyniuk9Populovskyi1n = 10Martyniuk took 9 of 10
S2Martyniuk7Populovskyi3n = 10Martyniuk took 7 of 10
S3Martyniuk5Populovskyi5n = 10split evenly
S4Martyniuk3Populovskyi4n = 7Populovskyi took 4 of 7
S5Martyniuk3Populovskyi1n = 4Martyniuk took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMartyniukPopulovskyiM − PBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match42.037.3+4.7per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMartyniukPopulovskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime165 / 320 vs 337 / 68551.6%49.2%165 / 320 vs 337 / 685Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.536.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MartyniukMartyniuk 1.36/Populovskyi 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
71.6%
Martyniuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Martyniuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 31 · 07:05A. Martyniuk—1111812113E. Populovskyi—66111472
WAug 29 · 13:00A. Martyniuk—1116113E. Populovskyi—51430
WAug 22 · 13:30A. Martyniuk—1211113E. Populovskyi—10990
WJul 23 · 10:35A. Martyniuk—11115113E. Populovskyi—591191
LJul 22 · 09:35A. Martyniuk—11131091E. Populovskyi—61512113
WJun 21 · 20:50A. Martyniuk—91211113E. Populovskyi—1110881
WMar 19 · 12:00A. Martyniuk—1111113E. Populovskyi—6760
LFeb 15 · 13:20A. Martyniuk—12791182E. Populovskyi—1011119113
WFeb 14 · 20:50A. Martyniuk—117115123E. Populovskyi—811811102
WJan 31 · 21:20A. Martyniuk—111139113E. Populovskyi—69111182
A. Martyniuk10
WSep 7 · 08:35O. Lipeiko2.638770A. Martyniuk1.441111113WSep 7 · 06:35K. Klymenko2.639780A. Martyniuk1.441111113LSep 7 · 05:35O. Leonenko1.91111155113A. Martyniuk1.8089111152LAug 31 · 12:05A. Martyniuk1.73913912112S. Solomko2.0011111110133WAug 31 · 10:05S. Skhabitskiy3.2512311762A. Martyniuk1.331011911113LAug 31 · 08:05V. Kolesnykov1.67101111113A. Martyniuk2.10127861LAug 31 · 06:05A. Kovalenko2.63611612113A. Martyniuk1.44117111052WAug 29 · 18:30A. Martyniuk1.2531111113O. Osadchyi3.75117881LAug 29 · 16:30S. Solomko2.1081611123A. Martyniuk1.6711149101LAug 29 · 15:30A. Martyniuk1.53991151O. Tymofeev2.3811119113
E. Populovskyi10
LSep 6 · 11:50D. Patalakha1.501111113E. Populovskyi2.508570WSep 6 · 10:50E. Populovskyi1.91811411143A. Kovalenko1.80114119122WSep 6 · 09:50E. Populovskyi1.301111113M. Stetsenko3.406890LSep 6 · 08:20E. Populovskyi2.202390O. Lipeiko1.611111113LSep 6 · 06:20E. Populovskyi3.25117971S. Solomko1.3381111113WSep 4 · 11:35V. Melnykov1.914660E. Populovskyi1.801111113WSep 4 · 10:35O. Mytsyk1.91119881E. Populovskyi1.8091111113WSep 4 · 09:05K. Klymenko3.4059100E. Populovskyi1.301111123LSep 4 · 07:05A. Kovalenko1.8391111113E. Populovskyi1.83117771WSep 4 · 05:05M. Stetsenko3.406116111E. Populovskyi1.3011911133
Upcoming Matches
A. Martyniuk
E. Populovskyi
Nothing scheduled
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