TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13049342
Played Aug 31Finished
Sergii Skhabitskiy
Home
3.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1210311119711611
Andrii Martyniuk
Away
1.33
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:48 and never touched — 69.5% is still 69.5%
Graded at full timeAndrii Martyniuk to win
69.5%
69.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSergii Skhabitskiy above · Andrii Martyniuk below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 91 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Andrii Martyniuk at 69.5%
91 points played in total.
H2H Sergii Skhabitskiy 10–16 Andrii Martyniuk Sergii Skhabitskiy has won 10 of their 26 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:48What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Martyniuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-16 in 26
Martyniuk
Correct
gap of 6 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skhabitskiy 1439 vs Martyniuk 1499
Martyniuk
Correct
both rated, 61 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skhabitskiy 40% vs Martyniuk 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skhabitskiy 30% vs Martyniuk 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skhabitskiy -1 · Martyniuk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Martyniuk) · live re-read · sealed at 70% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Martyniuk form (40%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkhabitskiy 3.25 / Martyniuk 1.33
Signal prob.28% / 72%
Edge (Martyniuk)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13049342
Skhabitskiy3.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 111 of 275
Down 0–1, comes back23% 33 of 142
Down 0–2, comes back6% 5 of 84
Martyniuk1.33
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 56 of 91
Up 2–0, closes it92% 33 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it68% 41 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkhabitskiy5wins
AwayMartyniuk5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkhabitskiy66.7%4 of 6
AwayMartyniuk75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skhabitskiy6Martyniuk4n = 10Skhabitskiy took 6 of 10
S2Skhabitskiy5Martyniuk5n = 10split evenly
S3Skhabitskiy4Martyniuk6n = 10Martyniuk took 6 of 10
S4Skhabitskiy2Martyniuk5n = 7Martyniuk took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkhabitskiyMartyniukS − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match35.238.5−3.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkhabitskiyMartyniukBasisWin rate · lifetime488 / 1100 vs 164 / 31844.4%51.6%488 / 1100 vs 164 / 318Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.838.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MartyniukSkhabitskiy 3.25/Martyniuk 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.1%
Martyniuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Martyniuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJun 23 · 21:40S. Skhabitskiy—4470A. Martyniuk—1111113
WJun 21 · 17:20S. Skhabitskiy—51114113A. Martyniuk—1141291
LMar 8 · 12:20S. Skhabitskiy—411721A. Martyniuk—11911113
LFeb 24 · 07:00S. Skhabitskiy—1151041A. Martyniuk—81112113
LFeb 21 · 17:50S. Skhabitskiy—128781A. Martyniuk—101111113
WFeb 14 · 17:50S. Skhabitskiy—111197113A. Martyniuk—66111132
WFeb 3 · 10:00S. Skhabitskiy—1113113A. Martyniuk—91190
WJan 27 · 09:00S. Skhabitskiy—1612911113A. Martyniuk—141411672
WJan 19 · 09:05S. Skhabitskiy—1213143A. Martyniuk—1011120
LDec 14 · 13:20S. Skhabitskiy—261161A. Martyniuk—11115113
S. Skhabitskiy10
WAug 31 · 11:05V. Kolesnykov1.57107111142S. Skhabitskiy2.25121188113LAug 31 · 09:05S. Skhabitskiy2.5099130E. Populovskyi1.501111153WAug 31 · 07:35S. Skhabitskiy2.7511411113A. Kovalenko1.40511391WAug 31 · 05:35S. Skhabitskiy2.2513117123S. Solomko1.5711611101LAug 30 · 18:30O. Leonenko2.001111113S. Skhabitskiy1.737470LAug 30 · 17:30M. Stetsenko1.8371111113S. Skhabitskiy1.83119831LAug 30 · 16:00B. Zaika1.441011811113S. Skhabitskiy2.6312511782WAug 30 · 14:00O. Ovsiienko2.633990S. Skhabitskiy1.441111113LAug 30 · 12:00A. Kurtenko1.441111113S. Skhabitskiy2.637960LAug 28 · 12:05O. Mytsyk1.6191S. Skhabitskiy2.2030
A. Martyniuk10
WSep 7 · 06:35K. Klymenko2.639780A. Martyniuk1.441111113LSep 7 · 05:35O. Leonenko1.91111155113A. Martyniuk1.8089111152LAug 31 · 12:05A. Martyniuk1.73913912112S. Solomko2.0011111110133LAug 31 · 08:05V. Kolesnykov1.67101111113A. Martyniuk2.10127861WAug 31 · 07:05A. Martyniuk1.361111812113E. Populovskyi3.0066111472LAug 31 · 06:05A. Kovalenko2.63611612113A. Martyniuk1.44117111052WAug 29 · 18:30A. Martyniuk1.2531111113O. Osadchyi3.75117881LAug 29 · 16:30S. Solomko2.1081611123A. Martyniuk1.6711149101LAug 29 · 15:30A. Martyniuk1.53991151O. Tymofeev2.3811119113WAug 29 · 14:30F. Voinarovskyi3.006113111A. Martyniuk1.3611711133
Upcoming Matches
S. Skhabitskiy
Nothing scheduled
A. Martyniuk
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