TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13049121
Played Aug 31Finished
Sergii Skhabitskiy
Home
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
115411113119––
Anatolii Kovalenko
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:54 and never touched — 67.9% is still 67.9%
Graded at full timeAnatolii Kovalenko to win
67.9%
67.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingSergii Skhabitskiy above · Anatolii Kovalenko below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 65 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Anatolii Kovalenko at 67.9%
65 points played in total.
H2H Sergii Skhabitskiy 7–17 Anatolii Kovalenko Sergii Skhabitskiy has won 7 of their 24 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:54What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Kovalenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-17 in 24
Kovalenko
Wrong
gap of 10 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skhabitskiy 1444 vs Kovalenko 1393
Skhabitskiy
Correct
both rated, 51 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skhabitskiy 40% vs Kovalenko 60%
Kovalenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skhabitskiy 40% vs Kovalenko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skhabitskiy +1 · Kovalenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Kovalenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalenko form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkhabitskiy 2.75 / Kovalenko 1.40
Signal prob.33% / 68%
Edge (Kovalenko)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13049121
Skhabitskiy2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 113 of 277
Down 0–1, comes back23% 32 of 140
Down 0–2, comes back6% 5 of 83
Kovalenko1.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite51% won 70 of 137
Up 2–0, closes it94% 30 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it67% 45 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkhabitskiy5wins
AwayKovalenko5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkhabitskiy75%3 of 4
AwayKovalenko66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skhabitskiy4Kovalenko6n = 10Kovalenko took 6 of 10
S2Skhabitskiy4Kovalenko6n = 10Kovalenko took 6 of 10
S3Skhabitskiy6Kovalenko4n = 10Skhabitskiy took 6 of 10
S4Skhabitskiy7Kovalenko0n = 7Skhabitskiy took 7 of 7
S5Skhabitskiy0Kovalenko3n = 3Kovalenko took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkhabitskiyKovalenkoS − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.034.6+0.4per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkhabitskiyKovalenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime484 / 1095 vs 265 / 49644.2%53.4%484 / 1095 vs 265 / 496Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.837.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalenkoSkhabitskiy 2.75/Kovalenko 1.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.5%
Kovalenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Skhabitskiy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 31 · 07:35S. Skhabitskiy—11411113A. Kovalenko—511391
LAug 10 · 08:20S. Skhabitskiy—10780A. Kovalenko—1211113
LAug 7 · 08:30S. Skhabitskiy—4550A. Kovalenko—1111113
WAug 6 · 11:50S. Skhabitskiy—61111113A. Kovalenko—114951
WJul 31 · 11:30S. Skhabitskiy—1111113A. Kovalenko—7440
LJul 26 · 13:30S. Skhabitskiy—11561262A. Kovalenko—711111073
LJul 23 · 10:20S. Skhabitskiy—69111272A. Kovalenko—1111710113
LJul 13 · 10:20S. Skhabitskiy—91141142A. Kovalenko—118117113
WJul 8 · 08:05S. Skhabitskiy—11311113A. Kovalenko—511651
WJul 1 · 15:30S. Skhabitskiy—81211113A. Kovalenko—1110871
S. Skhabitskiy10
WAug 31 · 11:05V. Kolesnykov1.57107111142S. Skhabitskiy2.25121188113LAug 31 · 10:05S. Skhabitskiy3.2512311762A. Martyniuk1.331011911113LAug 31 · 09:05S. Skhabitskiy2.5099130E. Populovskyi1.501111153WAug 31 · 05:35S. Skhabitskiy2.2513117123S. Solomko1.5711611101LAug 30 · 18:30O. Leonenko2.001111113S. Skhabitskiy1.737470LAug 30 · 17:30M. Stetsenko1.8371111113S. Skhabitskiy1.83119831LAug 30 · 16:00B. Zaika1.441011811113S. Skhabitskiy2.6312511782WAug 30 · 14:00O. Ovsiienko2.633990S. Skhabitskiy1.441111113LAug 30 · 12:00A. Kurtenko1.441111113S. Skhabitskiy2.637960LAug 28 · 12:05O. Mytsyk1.6191S. Skhabitskiy2.2030
A. Kovalenko10
LSep 6 · 12:50A. Kovalenko1.83381111S. Solomko1.831111393LSep 6 · 10:50E. Populovskyi1.91811411143A. Kovalenko1.80114119122LSep 6 · 08:50D. Patalakha2.0011137113A. Kovalenko1.734111171WSep 6 · 07:50A. Kovalenko1.4012711113M. Stetsenko2.751011791WSep 6 · 06:50O. Lipeiko1.83109100A. Kovalenko1.831211123WSep 4 · 12:05A. Kovalenko1.5711611113O. Mytsyk2.25511541LSep 4 · 10:05K. Klymenko1.73881111113A. Kovalenko2.0011118722WSep 4 · 08:05M. Stetsenko2.631111171A. Kovalenko1.4411813113WSep 4 · 07:05A. Kovalenko1.8391111113E. Populovskyi1.83117771WSep 4 · 06:05V. Melnykov2.10961111102A. Kovalenko1.67111129123
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