TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13048834
Played Aug 31Finished
Sergii Skhabitskiy
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
9119111315––––
Eduard Populovskyi
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:34 and never touched — 63.7% is still 63.7%
Graded at full timeEduard Populovskyi to win
63.7%
63.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSergii Skhabitskiy above · Eduard Populovskyi below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 13-15
Point 68 set 3, 13-15 — our read held Eduard Populovskyi at 63.7%
68 points played in total.
H2H Sergii Skhabitskiy 24–49 Eduard Populovskyi Sergii Skhabitskiy has won 24 of their 73 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:34What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Populovskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-49 in 73
Populovskyi
Correct
gap of 25 in 73, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skhabitskiy 1439 vs Populovskyi 1438
Skhabitskiy
Wrong
both rated, 1 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skhabitskiy 40% vs Populovskyi 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skhabitskiy 40% vs Populovskyi 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skhabitskiy +2 · Populovskyi -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Populovskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Populovskyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkhabitskiy 2.50 / Populovskyi 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Populovskyi)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13048834
Skhabitskiy2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 111 of 275
Down 0–1, comes back23% 33 of 142
Down 0–2, comes back6% 5 of 84
Populovskyi1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite54% won 100 of 184
Up 2–0, closes it95% 53 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it84% 75 of 89
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkhabitskiy1wins
AwayPopulovskyi9wins
1 of 10 to a deciderPopulovskyi leads 9–1, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkhabitskiy20%1 of 5
AwayPopulovskyi100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skhabitskiy5Populovskyi5n = 10split evenly
S2Skhabitskiy2Populovskyi8n = 10Populovskyi took 8 of 10
S3Skhabitskiy2Populovskyi8n = 10Populovskyi took 8 of 10
S4Skhabitskiy1Populovskyi6n = 7Populovskyi took 6 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkhabitskiyPopulovskyiS − PBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match32.839.6−6.8per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkhabitskiyPopulovskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime488 / 1100 vs 337 / 68444.4%49.3%488 / 1100 vs 337 / 684Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.836.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PopulovskyiSkhabitskiy 2.50/Populovskyi 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.7%
Populovskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Populovskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 10 · 06:20S. Skhabitskiy—119971E. Populovskyi—81111113
LAug 7 · 10:00S. Skhabitskiy—681151E. Populovskyi—11119113
LAug 6 · 08:50S. Skhabitskiy—1119461E. Populovskyi—72111113
LJul 31 · 07:30S. Skhabitskiy—111060E. Populovskyi—1312113
LJul 12 · 13:30S. Skhabitskiy—115791E. Populovskyi—91111113
LJul 9 · 11:50S. Skhabitskiy—8850E. Populovskyi—1111113
LJun 22 · 05:50S. Skhabitskiy—6580E. Populovskyi—1111113
LJun 21 · 19:20S. Skhabitskiy—121110672E. Populovskyi—1071211113
WMay 23 · 15:20S. Skhabitskiy—11117113E. Populovskyi—761131
LMay 20 · 16:20S. Skhabitskiy—1281161E. Populovskyi—14115113
S. Skhabitskiy10
WAug 31 · 11:05V. Kolesnykov1.57107111142S. Skhabitskiy2.25121188113LAug 31 · 10:05S. Skhabitskiy3.2512311762A. Martyniuk1.331011911113WAug 31 · 07:35S. Skhabitskiy2.7511411113A. Kovalenko1.40511391WAug 31 · 05:35S. Skhabitskiy2.2513117123S. Solomko1.5711611101LAug 30 · 18:30O. Leonenko2.001111113S. Skhabitskiy1.737470LAug 30 · 17:30M. Stetsenko1.8371111113S. Skhabitskiy1.83119831LAug 30 · 16:00B. Zaika1.441011811113S. Skhabitskiy2.6312511782WAug 30 · 14:00O. Ovsiienko2.633990S. Skhabitskiy1.441111113LAug 30 · 12:00A. Kurtenko1.441111113S. Skhabitskiy2.637960LAug 28 · 12:05O. Mytsyk1.6191S. Skhabitskiy2.2030
E. Populovskyi10
LSep 6 · 11:50D. Patalakha1.501111113E. Populovskyi2.508570WSep 6 · 10:50E. Populovskyi1.91811411143A. Kovalenko1.80114119122WSep 6 · 09:50E. Populovskyi1.301111113M. Stetsenko3.406890LSep 6 · 08:20E. Populovskyi2.202390O. Lipeiko1.611111113LSep 6 · 06:20E. Populovskyi3.25117971S. Solomko1.3381111113WSep 4 · 11:35V. Melnykov1.914660E. Populovskyi1.801111113WSep 4 · 10:35O. Mytsyk1.91119881E. Populovskyi1.8091111113WSep 4 · 09:05K. Klymenko3.4059100E. Populovskyi1.301111123LSep 4 · 07:05A. Kovalenko1.8391111113E. Populovskyi1.83117771WSep 4 · 05:05M. Stetsenko3.406116111E. Populovskyi1.3011911133
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