TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13043966
Played Aug 30Finished
Oleksandr Leonenko
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117114117––––
Sergii Skhabitskiy
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:46 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeSergii Skhabitskiy to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOleksandr Leonenko above · Sergii Skhabitskiy below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 51 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Sergii Skhabitskiy at 54.5%
51 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Leonenko 22–29 Sergii Skhabitskiy Oleksandr Leonenko has won 22 of their 51 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:46What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Skhabitskiy
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
22-29 in 51
Skhabitskiy
Wrong
gap of 7 in 51, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Leonenko 1406 vs Skhabitskiy 1443
Skhabitskiy
Wrong
both rated, 37 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Leonenko 20% vs Skhabitskiy 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Leonenko 50% vs Skhabitskiy 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Leonenko -3 · Skhabitskiy -2
Leonenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Skhabitskiy)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skhabitskiy form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLeonenko 2.00 / Skhabitskiy 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 55%
Edge (Skhabitskiy)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13043966
Leonenko2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 76 of 174
Down 0–1, comes back23% 22 of 95
Down 0–2, comes back10% 6 of 60
Skhabitskiy1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite53% won 111 of 211
Up 2–0, closes it92% 58 of 63
Up 1–0, closes it73% 82 of 112
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLeonenko4wins
AwaySkhabitskiy6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSkhabitskiy leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLeonenkon = 2, below the 3 needed
AwaySkhabitskiy75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Leonenko2Skhabitskiy8n = 10Skhabitskiy took 8 of 10
S2Leonenko4Skhabitskiy6n = 10Skhabitskiy took 6 of 10
S3Leonenko4Skhabitskiy6n = 10Skhabitskiy took 6 of 10
S4Leonenko4Skhabitskiy4n = 8split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricLeonenkoSkhabitskiyL − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match37.439.4−2.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLeonenkoSkhabitskiyBasisWin rate · lifetime432 / 837 vs 489 / 109951.6%44.5%432 / 837 vs 489 / 1099Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.936.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkhabitskiyLeonenko 2.00/Skhabitskiy 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.5%
Skhabitskiy · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Leonenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 23 · 11:40O. Leonenko—991161S. Skhabitskiy—11118113
WAug 20 · 11:50O. Leonenko—61111113S. Skhabitskiy—118591
WAug 17 · 09:20O. Leonenko—122811123S. Skhabitskiy—1011119102
WAug 16 · 19:00O. Leonenko—121511113S. Skhabitskiy—1017931
LAug 14 · 08:00O. Leonenko—711981S. Skhabitskiy—11711113
LAug 12 · 11:05O. Leonenko—911100S. Skhabitskiy—1113123
LAug 9 · 19:00O. Leonenko—811451S. Skhabitskiy—11111113
LJul 29 · 05:30O. Leonenko—911761S. Skhabitskiy—11911113
LJul 3 · 10:30O. Leonenko—127100S. Skhabitskiy—1411113
WJun 28 · 14:30O. Leonenko—791113113S. Skhabitskiy—111161132
O. Leonenko10
WSep 7 · 09:05O. Leonenko1.50791111113O. Ovsiienko2.5011119772LSep 7 · 07:35O. Leonenko3.751011651O. Lipeiko1.2512511113WSep 7 · 05:35O. Leonenko1.91111155113A. Martyniuk1.8089111152LSep 6 · 18:30O. Leonenko1.9139111192S. Baranskyi1.80111164113LSep 6 · 16:30V. Smyk2.631112113O. Leonenko1.4481080WSep 6 · 15:30O. Leonenko1.5011119113O. Ovsiienko2.50891171LSep 6 · 14:30B. Zaika1.4411112O. Leonenko2.63560WSep 6 · 13:00O. Leonenko1.611111613103K. Klymenko2.2047111552WSep 3 · 12:20O. Leonenko1.509111110113O. Ovsiienko2.5011971212WSep 3 · 10:20M. Stetsenko1.809117101O. Leonenko1.9111811123
S. Skhabitskiy10
WAug 31 · 11:05V. Kolesnykov1.57107111142S. Skhabitskiy2.25121188113LAug 31 · 10:05S. Skhabitskiy3.2512311762A. Martyniuk1.331011911113LAug 31 · 09:05S. Skhabitskiy2.5099130E. Populovskyi1.501111153WAug 31 · 07:35S. Skhabitskiy2.7511411113A. Kovalenko1.40511391WAug 31 · 05:35S. Skhabitskiy2.2513117123S. Solomko1.5711611101LAug 30 · 17:30M. Stetsenko1.8371111113S. Skhabitskiy1.83119831LAug 30 · 16:00B. Zaika1.441011811113S. Skhabitskiy2.6312511782WAug 30 · 14:00O. Ovsiienko2.633990S. Skhabitskiy1.441111113LAug 30 · 12:00A. Kurtenko1.441111113S. Skhabitskiy2.637960LAug 28 · 12:05O. Mytsyk1.6191S. Skhabitskiy2.2030
Upcoming Matches
O. Leonenko
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