TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13088688
Played Sep 7Finished
Oleksandr Leonenko
Home
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
711911119117117
Oleksandr Ovsiienko
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:13 and never touched — 68.8% is still 68.8%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Leonenko to win
68.8%
68.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Leonenko above · Oleksandr Ovsiienko below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 94 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Oleksandr Leonenko at 68.8%
94 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Leonenko 23–5 Oleksandr Ovsiienko Oleksandr Ovsiienko has won 5 of their 28 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:13What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Leonenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-5 in 28
Leonenko
Correct
gap of 18 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Leonenko 1454 vs Ovsiienko 1399
Leonenko
Correct
both rated, 55 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Leonenko 40% vs Ovsiienko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Leonenko 60% vs Ovsiienko 30%
Leonenko
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Leonenko -1 · Ovsiienko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Leonenko) · live re-read · sealed at 69% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Leonenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLeonenko 1.50 / Ovsiienko 2.50
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Leonenko)+4.3pp
Setka Cup · #13088688
Leonenko1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 111 of 181
Up 2–0, closes it93% 41 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it79% 62 of 79
Ovsiienko2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog37% won 79 of 212
Down 0–1, comes back14% 16 of 115
Down 0–2, comes back6% 5 of 78
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLeonenko8wins
AwayOvsiienko2wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLeonenko leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLeonenko83.3%5 of 6
AwayOvsiienko25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Leonenko6Ovsiienko4n = 10Leonenko took 6 of 10
S2Leonenko9Ovsiienko1n = 10Leonenko took 9 of 10
S3Leonenko5Ovsiienko5n = 10split evenly
S4Leonenko3Ovsiienko6n = 9Ovsiienko took 6 of 9
S5Leonenko4Ovsiienko1n = 5Leonenko took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricLeonenkoOvsiienkoL − OBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match45.140.4+4.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLeonenkoOvsiienkoBasisWin rate · lifetime435 / 840 vs 444 / 85351.8%52.1%435 / 840 vs 444 / 853Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.936.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LeonenkoLeonenko 1.50/Ovsiienko 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.8%
Leonenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Leonenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 15:30O. Leonenko—11119113O. Ovsiienko—891171
WSep 3 · 12:20O. Leonenko—9111110113O. Ovsiienko—11971212
WAug 30 · 13:00O. Leonenko—11149113O. Ovsiienko—8121161
WAug 23 · 17:10O. Leonenko—1311133O. Ovsiienko—116110
LAug 20 · 10:50O. Leonenko—1211671O. Ovsiienko—14811113
WAug 17 · 12:20O. Leonenko—111198113O. Ovsiienko—98111142
WAug 16 · 13:00O. Leonenko—31211993O. Ovsiienko—111061132
WAug 13 · 06:50O. Leonenko—121314113O. Ovsiienko—10111681
LAug 12 · 09:05O. Leonenko—124117142O. Ovsiienko—1011411163
WAug 10 · 10:30O. Leonenko—611118113O. Ovsiienko—11761142
O. Leonenko10
WSep 7 · 10:05O. Leonenko2.381111133O. Shyshman1.5343110LSep 7 · 07:35O. Leonenko3.751011651O. Lipeiko1.2512511113WSep 7 · 05:35O. Leonenko1.91111155113A. Martyniuk1.8089111152LSep 6 · 18:30O. Leonenko1.9139111192S. Baranskyi1.80111164113LSep 6 · 16:30V. Smyk2.631112113O. Leonenko1.4481080WSep 6 · 15:30O. Leonenko1.5011119113O. Ovsiienko2.50891171LSep 6 · 14:30B. Zaika1.4411112O. Leonenko2.63560WSep 6 · 13:00O. Leonenko1.611111613103K. Klymenko2.2047111552WSep 3 · 12:20O. Leonenko1.509111110113O. Ovsiienko2.5011971212WSep 3 · 10:20M. Stetsenko1.809117101O. Leonenko1.9111811123
O. Ovsiienko10
WSep 7 · 07:05O. Shyshman1.507860O. Ovsiienko2.501111113LSep 7 · 05:05K. Klymenko2.6311139113O. Ovsiienko1.443111191WSep 6 · 19:00K. Klymenko2.638101181O. Ovsiienko1.4411128113LSep 6 · 17:30O. Ovsiienko1.918640S. Baranskyi1.801111113LSep 6 · 15:30O. Leonenko1.5011119113O. Ovsiienko2.50891171LSep 6 · 13:30V. Smyk1.617111173O. Ovsiienko2.20116621LSep 6 · 12:30B. Zaika1.3611311113O. Ovsiienko3.00811651LSep 3 · 12:20O. Leonenko1.509111110113O. Ovsiienko2.5011971212LSep 3 · 11:20A. Kovalenko1.611111123O. Ovsiienko2.2049100WSep 3 · 09:50K. Klymenko3.0011812562O. Ovsiienko1.369111011113
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