TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084866
Played Sep 6Finished
Oleksandr Leonenko
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
311911116114911
Serhii Baranskyi
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:18 and never touched — 55.3% is still 55.3%
Graded at full timeSerhii Baranskyi to win
55.3%
55.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Leonenko above · Serhii Baranskyi below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 86 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Serhii Baranskyi at 55.3%
86 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Leonenko 3–5 Serhii Baranskyi Oleksandr Leonenko has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:18What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Baranskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-5 in 8
Baranskyi
Correct
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Leonenko 1457 vs Baranskyi 1323
Leonenko
Wrong
both rated, 134 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Leonenko 60% vs Baranskyi 40%
Leonenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Leonenko 80% vs Baranskyi 60%
Leonenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Leonenko -1 · Baranskyi +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Leonenko) · live re-read · sealed at 45% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baranskyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLeonenko 1.91 / Baranskyi 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Leonenko)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13084866
Leonenko1.91
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 75 of 172
Down 0–1, comes back22% 20 of 92
Down 0–2, comes back10% 6 of 59
Baranskyi1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 23 of 42
Up 2–0, closes it92% 11 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it69% 18 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeLeonenko3wins
AwayBaranskyi5wins
4 of 8 to a deciderBaranskyi leads 5–3, and 4 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLeonenko75%3 of 4
AwayBaranskyi100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Leonenko4Baranskyi4n = 8split evenly
S2Leonenko0Baranskyi8n = 8Baranskyi took 8 of 8
S3Leonenko4Baranskyi4n = 8split evenly
S4Leonenko4Baranskyi2n = 6Leonenko took 4 of 6
S5Leonenko2Baranskyi2n = 4split evenly
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away225%
These 8 meetings
MetricLeonenkoBaranskyiL − BBasisWins35−2in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match37.541.5−4.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLeonenkoBaranskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime434 / 838 vs 105 / 20051.8%52.5%434 / 838 vs 105 / 200Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.936.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LeonenkoLeonenko 1.91/Baranskyi 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Leonenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Baranskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 6 · 18:30O. Leonenko—39111192S. Baranskyi—111164113
LJul 5 · 14:10O. Leonenko—31180S. Baranskyi—1113113
LJul 19 · 08:05O. Leonenko—561171S. Baranskyi—11119113
WJul 4 · 19:50O. Leonenko—11411113S. Baranskyi—511991
WJun 13 · 15:50O. Leonenko—114611113S. Baranskyi—91111992
WApr 26 · 08:05O. Leonenko—1191111113S. Baranskyi—61113932
LApr 18 · 19:20O. Leonenko—12711982S. Baranskyi—1011711113
LMar 20 · 09:20O. Leonenko—13580S. Baranskyi—1511113
O. Leonenko10
WSep 7 · 05:35O. Leonenko1.91111155113A. Martyniuk1.8089111152LSep 6 · 16:30V. Smyk2.631112113O. Leonenko1.4481080WSep 6 · 15:30O. Leonenko1.5011119113O. Ovsiienko2.50891171LSep 6 · 14:30B. Zaika1.4411112O. Leonenko2.63560WSep 6 · 13:00O. Leonenko1.611111613103K. Klymenko2.2047111552WSep 3 · 12:20O. Leonenko1.509111110113O. Ovsiienko2.5011971212WSep 3 · 10:20M. Stetsenko1.809117101O. Leonenko1.9111811123WSep 3 · 09:20O. Leonenko1.831111143A. Kovalenko1.8387120WSep 3 · 08:20K. Klymenko2.20118111132O. Leonenko1.61711413113WSep 3 · 06:50O. Leonenko2.631111113O. Mytsyk1.449680
S. Baranskyi10
WSep 6 · 17:30O. Ovsiienko1.918640S. Baranskyi1.801111113LSep 6 · 16:00B. Zaika1.7311811113S. Baranskyi2.00611391LSep 6 · 14:00K. Klymenko1.57714146103S. Baranskyi2.251112121172LSep 6 · 12:00V. Smyk1.5711911113S. Baranskyi2.25911361WAug 30 · 17:40M. Khalenko1.8310990S. Baranskyi1.831211113WAug 30 · 16:10S. Baranskyi2.5091111133K. Klymenko1.501189111WAug 30 · 12:10Y. Korotin2.251110111242S. Baranskyi1.57712314113WAug 30 · 11:10V. Stukalov2.00119261S. Baranskyi1.7381111113WAug 23 · 11:35V. Varchenko1.73491191S. Baranskyi2.0011116113LAug 23 · 10:35S. Semenets1.73111194113S. Baranskyi2.0097111172
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