TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13044618
Played Aug 30Finished
Vladyslav Stukalov
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
118911211611––
Serhii Baranskyi
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:46 and never touched — 56.9% is still 56.9%
Graded at full timeSerhii Baranskyi to win
56.9%
56.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVladyslav Stukalov above · Serhii Baranskyi below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 2-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 69 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Serhii Baranskyi at 56.9%
69 points played in total.
H2H Vladyslav Stukalov 19–26 Serhii Baranskyi Vladyslav Stukalov has won 19 of their 45 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:46What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Baranskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-26 in 45
Baranskyi
Correct
gap of 7 in 45, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stukalov 1241 vs Baranskyi 1318
Baranskyi
Correct
both rated, 78 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stukalov 20% vs Baranskyi 80%
Baranskyi
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stukalov 40% vs Baranskyi 60%
Baranskyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stukalov -2 · Baranskyi +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Baranskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baranskyi form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStukalov 2.00 / Baranskyi 1.73
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Baranskyi)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13044618
Stukalov2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog47% won 100 of 212
Down 0–1, comes back22% 25 of 114
Down 0–2, comes back10% 7 of 67
Baranskyi1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite53% won 21 of 40
Up 2–0, closes it92% 11 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it69% 18 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStukalov4wins
AwayBaranskyi6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderBaranskyi leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStukalov75%3 of 4
AwayBaranskyi83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stukalov4Baranskyi6n = 10Baranskyi took 6 of 10
S2Stukalov6Baranskyi4n = 10Stukalov took 6 of 10
S3Stukalov6Baranskyi4n = 10Stukalov took 6 of 10
S4Stukalov0Baranskyi6n = 6Baranskyi took 6 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStukalovBaranskyiS − BBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.234.7+1.5per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStukalovBaranskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime405 / 805 vs 103 / 19550.3%52.8%405 / 805 vs 103 / 195Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.536.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BaranskyiStukalov 2.00/Baranskyi 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.9%
Baranskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Baranskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 11:10V. Stukalov—119261S. Baranskyi—81111113
WAug 22 · 10:30V. Stukalov—1119113S. Baranskyi—21740
LAug 8 · 09:00V. Stukalov—1211981S. Baranskyi—14711113
LAug 1 · 05:00V. Stukalov—101490S. Baranskyi—1216113
LJul 19 · 16:10V. Stukalov—291161S. Baranskyi—11117113
LJul 5 · 11:10V. Stukalov—7151271S. Baranskyi—111710113
WJun 14 · 11:35V. Stukalov—4111110113S. Baranskyi—11571282
WJun 7 · 12:10V. Stukalov—1111113S. Baranskyi—6630
WJun 6 · 06:05V. Stukalov—1111113S. Baranskyi—6640
LMay 10 · 15:40V. Stukalov—1011981S. Baranskyi—12411113
V. Stukalov10
WSep 7 · 06:20V. Stukalov1.831111113S. Semenets1.835930LSep 5 · 11:05V. Mukhin1.361111113V. Stukalov3.009850LSep 5 · 10:05V. Stukalov1.8312711692V. Kucheriavyi1.831011511113WSep 5 · 09:05V. Stukalov1.831511153S. Semenets1.83137130LSep 5 · 07:35V. Stukalov1.53117991O. Stopin2.3841111113LSep 5 · 05:35V. Stukalov2.001012471V. Varchenko1.73121011113LSep 3 · 11:35V. Stukalov2.0011911492M. Khalenko1.73111911113LSep 3 · 09:35D. Khavanskyi1.611111113V. Stukalov2.206740WSep 3 · 08:35V. Stukalov1.8311512113S. Semenets1.839111061WSep 3 · 07:35V. Korniichuk1.3671111882V. Stukalov3.00119611113
S. Baranskyi10
WSep 6 · 18:30O. Leonenko1.9139111192S. Baranskyi1.80111164113WSep 6 · 17:30O. Ovsiienko1.918640S. Baranskyi1.801111113LSep 6 · 16:00B. Zaika1.7311811113S. Baranskyi2.00611391LSep 6 · 14:00K. Klymenko1.57714146103S. Baranskyi2.251112121172LSep 6 · 12:00V. Smyk1.5711911113S. Baranskyi2.25911361WAug 30 · 17:40M. Khalenko1.8310990S. Baranskyi1.831211113WAug 30 · 16:10S. Baranskyi2.5091111133K. Klymenko1.501189111WAug 30 · 12:10Y. Korotin2.251110111242S. Baranskyi1.57712314113WAug 23 · 11:35V. Varchenko1.73491191S. Baranskyi2.0011116113LAug 23 · 10:35S. Semenets1.73111194113S. Baranskyi2.0097111172
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