TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084184
Played Sep 6Finished
Bohdan Zaika
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 0
Set by set
115116––––––
Oleksandr Leonenko
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:20 and never touched — 62.1% is still 62.1%
Graded at full timeBohdan Zaika to win
62.1%
62.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingBohdan Zaika above · Oleksandr Leonenko below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-6
Point 33 set 2, 11-6 — our read held Bohdan Zaika at 62.1%
33 points played in total.
H2H Bohdan Zaika 3–2 Oleksandr Leonenko Oleksandr Leonenko has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:20What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Zaika
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zaika 1454 vs Leonenko 1481
Leonenko
Wrong
both rated, 28 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zaika 60% vs Leonenko 100%
Leonenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zaika 50% vs Leonenko 70%
Leonenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zaika +3 · Leonenko +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Zaika) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Leonenko form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZaika 1.44 / Leonenko 2.63
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Zaika)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13084184
Zaika1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 63 of 112
Up 2–0, closes it97% 29 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it70% 47 of 67
Leonenko2.63
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 7
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 75 of 172
Down 0–1, comes back22% 20 of 92
Down 0–2, comes back10% 6 of 59
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeZaika3wins
AwayLeonenko2wins
2 of 5 to a deciderZaika leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZaika66.7%2 of 3
AwayLeonenkon = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zaika3Leonenko2n = 5Zaika took 3 of 5
S2Zaika3Leonenko2n = 5Zaika took 3 of 5
S3Zaika4Leonenko1n = 5Zaika took 4 of 5
S4Zaika1Leonenko3n = 4Leonenko took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricZaikaLeonenkoZ − LBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match37.838.0−0.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZaikaLeonenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime276 / 555 vs 433 / 83449.7%51.9%276 / 555 vs 433 / 834Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZaikaZaika 1.44/Leonenko 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.7%
Zaika · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–0
Zaika won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WAug 30 · 14:30B. Zaika—111176113O. Leonenko—88111162
LDec 23 · 13:10B. Zaika—451191O. Leonenko—11115103
LDec 16 · 06:30B. Zaika—11611842O. Leonenko—811711113
WDec 9 · 12:10B. Zaika—1111113O. Leonenko—7870
WDec 5 · 08:00B. Zaika—61113113O. Leonenko—1191181
B. Zaika10
WSep 6 · 18:00V. Smyk3.259470B. Zaika1.331111113WSep 6 · 17:00B. Zaika1.6111113113K. Klymenko2.20831191WSep 6 · 16:00B. Zaika1.7311811113S. Baranskyi2.00611391WSep 6 · 12:30B. Zaika1.3611311113O. Ovsiienko3.00811651WSep 2 · 18:30B. Zaika1.571111113O. Ovsiienko2.257380WSep 2 · 16:30O. Mytsyk2.25861181B. Zaika1.5711116113LSep 2 · 15:30B. Zaika1.6111681192M. Stetsenko2.20611116113LSep 2 · 14:30V. Smyk3.5011137123B. Zaika1.2851111101LSep 2 · 13:00B. Zaika1.5791111552K. Klymenko2.25115811113LAug 30 · 18:00A. Kurtenko2.50111213153B. Zaika1.5041015131
O. Leonenko10
WSep 7 · 05:35O. Leonenko1.91111155113A. Martyniuk1.8089111152LSep 6 · 18:30O. Leonenko1.9139111192S. Baranskyi1.80111164113LSep 6 · 16:30V. Smyk2.631112113O. Leonenko1.4481080WSep 6 · 15:30O. Leonenko1.5011119113O. Ovsiienko2.50891171WSep 6 · 13:00O. Leonenko1.611111613103K. Klymenko2.2047111552WSep 3 · 12:20O. Leonenko1.509111110113O. Ovsiienko2.5011971212WSep 3 · 10:20M. Stetsenko1.809117101O. Leonenko1.9111811123WSep 3 · 09:20O. Leonenko1.831111143A. Kovalenko1.8387120WSep 3 · 08:20K. Klymenko2.20118111132O. Leonenko1.61711413113WSep 3 · 06:50O. Leonenko2.631111113O. Mytsyk1.449680
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