TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067382
Played Sep 3Finished
Oleksandr Leonenko
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1181171412––––
Anatolii Kovalenko
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:39 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Leonenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Leonenko above · Anatolii Kovalenko below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 14-12
Point 63 set 3, 14-12 — our read held Oleksandr Leonenko at 54.0%
63 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Leonenko 4–3 Anatolii Kovalenko Anatolii Kovalenko has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:39What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Kovalenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Leonenko 1452 vs Kovalenko 1359
Leonenko
Correct
both rated, 93 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Leonenko 60% vs Kovalenko 0%
Leonenko
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Leonenko 60% vs Kovalenko 20%
Leonenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Leonenko +3 · Kovalenko -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Leonenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalenko form (0%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLeonenko 1.83 / Kovalenko 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Leonenko)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13067382
Leonenko1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Kovalenko1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeLeonenko4wins
AwayKovalenko3wins
3 of 7 to a deciderLeonenko leads 4–3, and 3 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLeonenko100%3 of 3
AwayKovalenko75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Leonenko3Kovalenko4n = 7Kovalenko took 4 of 7
S2Leonenko4Kovalenko3n = 7Leonenko took 4 of 7
S3Leonenko1Kovalenko6n = 7Kovalenko took 6 of 7
S4Leonenko2Kovalenko2n = 4split evenly
S5Leonenko3Kovalenko0n = 3Leonenko took 3 of 3
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home343%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away229%
These 7 meetings
MetricLeonenkoKovalenkoL − KBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match36.137.3−1.2per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLeonenkoKovalenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime432 / 836 vs 265 / 49951.7%53.1%432 / 836 vs 265 / 499Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LeonenkoLeonenko 1.83/Kovalenko 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Leonenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Leonenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WJul 2 · 11:50O. Leonenko—1111113A. Kovalenko—6540
WJan 8 · 16:10O. Leonenko—4111011113A. Kovalenko—11812952
LJan 7 · 10:00O. Leonenko—91070A. Kovalenko—1112113
LDec 29 · 10:20O. Leonenko—9640A. Kovalenko—1111113
WDec 15 · 07:50O. Leonenko—1210511113A. Kovalenko—101211882
LDec 14 · 16:50O. Leonenko—2111051A. Kovalenko—1181293
WNov 30 · 19:20O. Leonenko—1111810113A. Kovalenko—87111272
O. Leonenko10
LSep 7 · 07:35O. Leonenko3.751011651O. Lipeiko1.2512511113WSep 7 · 05:35O. Leonenko1.91111155113A. Martyniuk1.8089111152LSep 6 · 18:30O. Leonenko1.9139111192S. Baranskyi1.80111164113LSep 6 · 16:30V. Smyk2.631112113O. Leonenko1.4481080WSep 6 · 15:30O. Leonenko1.5011119113O. Ovsiienko2.50891171LSep 6 · 14:30B. Zaika1.4411112O. Leonenko2.63560WSep 6 · 13:00O. Leonenko1.611111613103K. Klymenko2.2047111552WSep 3 · 12:20O. Leonenko1.509111110113O. Ovsiienko2.5011971212WSep 3 · 10:20M. Stetsenko1.809117101O. Leonenko1.9111811123WSep 3 · 08:20K. Klymenko2.20118111132O. Leonenko1.61711413113
A. Kovalenko10
LSep 6 · 12:50A. Kovalenko1.83381111S. Solomko1.831111393LSep 6 · 10:50E. Populovskyi1.91811411143A. Kovalenko1.80114119122LSep 6 · 08:50D. Patalakha2.0011137113A. Kovalenko1.734111171WSep 6 · 07:50A. Kovalenko1.4012711113M. Stetsenko2.751011791WSep 6 · 06:50O. Lipeiko1.83109100A. Kovalenko1.831211123WSep 4 · 12:05A. Kovalenko1.5711611113O. Mytsyk2.25511541LSep 4 · 10:05K. Klymenko1.73881111113A. Kovalenko2.0011118722WSep 4 · 08:05M. Stetsenko2.631111171A. Kovalenko1.4411813113WSep 4 · 07:05A. Kovalenko1.8391111113E. Populovskyi1.83117771WSep 4 · 06:05V. Melnykov2.10961111102A. Kovalenko1.67111129123
Upcoming Matches
O. Leonenko
A. Kovalenko
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