TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067578
Played Sep 3Finished
Oleksandr Leonenko
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119116118––––
Oleksandr Mytsyk
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:21 and never touched — 62.9% is still 62.9%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Mytsyk to win
62.9%
62.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOleksandr Leonenko above · Oleksandr Mytsyk below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 56 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Oleksandr Mytsyk at 62.9%
56 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Leonenko 9–18 Oleksandr Mytsyk Oleksandr Leonenko has won 9 of their 27 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:21What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Mytsyk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-18 in 27
Mytsyk
Wrong
gap of 9 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Leonenko 1472 vs Mytsyk 1310
Leonenko
Correct
both rated, 162 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Leonenko 40% vs Mytsyk 20%
Leonenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Leonenko 50% vs Mytsyk 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Leonenko +1 · Mytsyk -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Mytsyk) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mytsyk form (20%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLeonenko 2.63 / Mytsyk 1.44
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Mytsyk)-3.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13067578
Leonenko2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 76 of 175
Down 0–1, comes back21% 20 of 94
Down 0–2, comes back10% 6 of 61
Mytsyk1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite53% won 168 of 315
Up 2–0, closes it87% 83 of 95
Up 1–0, closes it77% 127 of 165
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLeonenko4wins
AwayMytsyk6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderMytsyk leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLeonenko60%3 of 5
AwayMytsyk80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Leonenko5Mytsyk5n = 10split evenly
S2Leonenko5Mytsyk5n = 10split evenly
S3Leonenko2Mytsyk8n = 10Mytsyk took 8 of 10
S4Leonenko3Mytsyk4n = 7Mytsyk took 4 of 7
S5Leonenko3Mytsyk2n = 5Leonenko took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricLeonenkoMytsykL − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.941.2−4.3per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLeonenkoMytsykBasisWin rate · lifetime432 / 833 vs 532 / 107351.9%49.6%432 / 833 vs 532 / 1073Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MytsykLeonenko 2.63/Mytsyk 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.3%
Mytsyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Leonenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 3 · 06:50O. Leonenko—1111113O. Mytsyk—9680
LAug 23 · 13:10O. Leonenko—116681O. Mytsyk—71111113
LAug 20 · 08:20O. Leonenko—8950O. Mytsyk—1111113
LAug 17 · 06:50O. Leonenko—411881O. Mytsyk—11711113
WAug 16 · 15:00O. Leonenko—111111783O. Mytsyk—13981152
LAug 14 · 05:30O. Leonenko—111071282O. Mytsyk—9121110113
WAug 12 · 10:05O. Leonenko—1110511113O. Mytsyk—81211952
LAug 10 · 09:30O. Leonenko—911411102O. Mytsyk—118118123
LAug 9 · 13:30O. Leonenko—3780O. Mytsyk—1111113
WAug 6 · 08:30O. Leonenko—111157113O. Mytsyk—99111192
O. Leonenko10
WSep 7 · 05:35O. Leonenko1.91111155113A. Martyniuk1.8089111152LSep 6 · 18:30O. Leonenko1.9139111192S. Baranskyi1.80111164113LSep 6 · 16:30V. Smyk2.631112113O. Leonenko1.4481080WSep 6 · 15:30O. Leonenko1.5011119113O. Ovsiienko2.50891171LSep 6 · 14:30B. Zaika1.4411112O. Leonenko2.63560WSep 6 · 13:00O. Leonenko1.611111613103K. Klymenko2.2047111552WSep 3 · 12:20O. Leonenko1.509111110113O. Ovsiienko2.5011971212WSep 3 · 10:20M. Stetsenko1.809117101O. Leonenko1.9111811123WSep 3 · 09:20O. Leonenko1.831111143A. Kovalenko1.8387120WSep 3 · 08:20K. Klymenko2.20118111132O. Leonenko1.61711413113
O. Mytsyk10
WSep 7 · 06:50O. Mytsyk1.67212713123V. Melnykov2.1011101111102LSep 4 · 12:05A. Kovalenko1.5711611113O. Mytsyk2.25511541LSep 4 · 10:35O. Mytsyk1.91119881E. Populovskyi1.8091111113WSep 4 · 08:35V. Melnykov2.25111410482O. Mytsyk1.579121211113LSep 4 · 06:35M. Stetsenko1.4411714113O. Mytsyk2.636111241LSep 4 · 05:35K. Klymenko1.611111113O. Mytsyk2.209870WSep 3 · 12:50O. Mytsyk2.251111913113A. Kovalenko1.57136111192LSep 3 · 10:50K. Klymenko1.6751117113O. Mytsyk2.101121581LSep 3 · 08:50M. Stetsenko1.5011119113O. Mytsyk2.50951151WSep 3 · 07:50O. Mytsyk2.001011811113O. Ovsiienko1.7312711262
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