Vasiliy Smyk vs Fedir Voinarovskyi 3-1

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka CupMatch #13079172

Played Sep 5Finished

Vasiliy Smyk

Home

1.83

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Lost last 1

Final

3 – 1

Set by set

117117511112––

Fedir Voinarovskyi

Away

1.83

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Won last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:20 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%

Graded at full time

Vasiliy Smyk to win

54.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

no pick shipped

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.

How it is goingVasiliy Smyk above · Fedir Voinarovskyi below

Set 1 · 11-7

Set 2 · 11-7

Set 3 · 5-11

Set 4 · 11-2

Point 65 set 4, 11-2 — our read held Vasiliy Smyk at 54.0%

65 points played in total.

H2H Vasiliy Smyk 4–2 Fedir Voinarovskyi Fedir Voinarovskyi has won 2 of their 6 meetings.

Last 6 · 4–2Same sideHead to head

The pickNo pick published

Sealed 20:20

What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.83 (50%)

Voinarovskyi

Wrong

no bar to clear — a priced side always votes

H2H

4-2 in 6

Smyk

Correct

gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Smyk 1411 vs Voinarovskyi 1470

Voinarovskyi

Wrong

both rated, 59 points apart — no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Smyk 60% vs Voinarovskyi 40%

Smyk

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Smyk 40% vs Voinarovskyi 40%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Smyk -1 · Voinarovskyi +1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Smyk)

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Voinarovskyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsSmyk 1.83 / Voinarovskyi 1.83

Signal prob.54% / 46%

Edge (Smyk)+4.0pp

Setka Cup · #13079172

Smyk1.83

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

30%takes the first set · 3 of 10

Voinarovskyi1.83

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 6 meetings

HomeSmyk4wins

AwayVoinarovskyi2wins

2 of 6 to a deciderSmyk leads 4–2, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeSmyk80%4 of 5

AwayVoinarovskyin = 1, below the 3 needed

Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Smyk5Voinarovskyi1n = 6Smyk took 5 of 6

S2Smyk3Voinarovskyi3n = 6split evenly

S3Smyk3Voinarovskyi3n = 6split evenly

S4Smyk5Voinarovskyi0n = 5Smyk took 5 of 5

Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home117%

3–1Four sets, home350%

3–2Decider, home00%

2–3Decider, away233%

1–3Four sets, away00%

0–3Straight, away00%

These 6 meetings

MetricSmykVoinarovskyiS − VBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set51+4of 6Avg pointsper match43.839.0+4.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricSmykVoinarovskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime273 / 641 vs 175 / 34442.6%50.9%273 / 641 vs 175 / 344Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.836.2per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Smyk

Smyk 1.83/Voinarovskyi 1.83

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

54%

Smyk · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–1

Smyk won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record6

WSep 5 · 16:00V. Smyk—11115113F. Voinarovskyi—771121

LAug 13 · 16:00V. Smyk—129111472F. Voinarovskyi—10111312113

WAug 11 · 14:10V. Smyk—1112113F. Voinarovskyi—91090

WAug 4 · 14:40V. Smyk—11813163F. Voinarovskyi—81111141

WJun 23 · 17:10V. Smyk—14117113F. Voinarovskyi—1261131

LMay 18 · 09:50V. Smyk—107111182F. Voinarovskyi—121184113

V. Smyk10

LSep 6 · 18:00V. Smyk3.259470B. Zaika1.331111113 WSep 6 · 16:30V. Smyk2.631112113O. Leonenko1.4481080 LSep 6 · 15:00V. Smyk1.5711791192K. Klymenko2.25411113113 WSep 6 · 13:30V. Smyk1.617111173O. Ovsiienko2.20116621 WSep 6 · 12:00V. Smyk1.5711911113S. Baranskyi2.25911361 LSep 5 · 18:00A. Kurtenko1.8311119113V. Smyk1.83471141 WSep 5 · 17:00V. Smyk2.501111113O. Tymofeev1.506770 LSep 5 · 14:30V. Smyk2.388118111D. Patalakha1.5311711133 WSep 5 · 12:30V. Smyk2.501081112113S. Solomko1.50121161082 WSep 2 · 18:00O. Mytsyk1.83101112642V. Smyk1.831281011113

F. Voinarovskyi10

LSep 5 · 18:30D. Patalakha1.73121011113F. Voinarovskyi2.001012591 WSep 5 · 17:30S. Solomko1.919790F. Voinarovskyi1.801111113 WSep 5 · 12:00A. Kurtenko3.5011381272F. Voinarovskyi1.286111110113 LAug 29 · 18:00S. Solomko2.10111011113F. Voinarovskyi1.67612691 WAug 29 · 17:00F. Voinarovskyi1.831111123E. Populovskyi1.8353100 LAug 29 · 16:00F. Voinarovskyi2.00610100O. Osadchyi1.731112123 LAug 29 · 14:30F. Voinarovskyi3.006113111A. Martyniuk1.3611711133 LAug 29 · 12:30F. Voinarovskyi3.4091450O. Tymofeev1.30111683 WAug 27 · 12:50F. Voinarovskyi3.001311113E. Populovskyi1.3611370 LAug 27 · 10:50S. Skhabitskiy1.9111911123F. Voinarovskyi1.805116101

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