TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13022566
Played Aug 27Finished
Sergii Skhabitskiy
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1159111161210––
Fedir Voinarovskyi
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:51 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSergii Skhabitskiy to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSergii Skhabitskiy above · Fedir Voinarovskyi below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 75 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Sergii Skhabitskiy at 54.0%
75 points played in total.
H2H Sergii Skhabitskiy 6–2 Fedir Voinarovskyi Fedir Voinarovskyi has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:51What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Voinarovskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-2 in 8
Skhabitskiy
Correct
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skhabitskiy 1439 vs Voinarovskyi 1438
Skhabitskiy
Correct
both rated, 1 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skhabitskiy 60% vs Voinarovskyi 40%
Skhabitskiy
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skhabitskiy 60% vs Voinarovskyi 40%
Skhabitskiy
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skhabitskiy -2 · Voinarovskyi -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Voinarovskyi) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Voinarovskyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkhabitskiy 1.91 / Voinarovskyi 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Voinarovskyi)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13022566
Skhabitskiy1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 113 of 279
Down 0–1, comes back22% 32 of 143
Down 0–2, comes back6% 5 of 84
Voinarovskyi1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 42 of 68
Up 2–0, closes it89% 33 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it74% 36 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeSkhabitskiy6wins
AwayVoinarovskyi2wins
3 of 8 to a deciderSkhabitskiy leads 6–2, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkhabitskiy83.3%5 of 6
AwayVoinarovskyin = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skhabitskiy6Voinarovskyi2n = 8Skhabitskiy took 6 of 8
S2Skhabitskiy2Voinarovskyi6n = 8Voinarovskyi took 6 of 8
S3Skhabitskiy5Voinarovskyi3n = 8Skhabitskiy took 5 of 8
S4Skhabitskiy5Voinarovskyi2n = 7Skhabitskiy took 5 of 7
S5Skhabitskiy2Voinarovskyi1n = 3Skhabitskiy took 2 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home450%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricSkhabitskiyVoinarovskyiS − VBasisWins62+4in 8 meetingsFirst set62+4of 8Avg pointsper match40.036.5+3.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkhabitskiyVoinarovskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime491 / 1099 vs 171 / 33444.7%51.2%491 / 1099 vs 171 / 334Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.936.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VoinarovskyiSkhabitskiy 1.91/Voinarovskyi 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Voinarovskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Skhabitskiy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WAug 27 · 10:50S. Skhabitskiy—11911123F. Voinarovskyi—5116101
LJun 4 · 07:20S. Skhabitskiy—11811182F. Voinarovskyi—711115113
WMay 18 · 07:50S. Skhabitskiy—117117113F. Voinarovskyi—41141192
LApr 20 · 05:05S. Skhabitskiy—6490F. Voinarovskyi—1111113
WApr 16 · 10:00S. Skhabitskiy—11511113F. Voinarovskyi—411561
WMar 6 · 07:35S. Skhabitskiy—111288113F. Voinarovskyi—510111172
WFeb 12 · 13:10S. Skhabitskiy—121011123F. Voinarovskyi—10128101
WFeb 5 · 17:40S. Skhabitskiy—61111113F. Voinarovskyi—116881
S. Skhabitskiy10
WAug 31 · 11:05V. Kolesnykov1.57107111142S. Skhabitskiy2.25121188113LAug 31 · 10:05S. Skhabitskiy3.2512311762A. Martyniuk1.331011911113LAug 31 · 09:05S. Skhabitskiy2.5099130E. Populovskyi1.501111153WAug 31 · 07:35S. Skhabitskiy2.7511411113A. Kovalenko1.40511391WAug 31 · 05:35S. Skhabitskiy2.2513117123S. Solomko1.5711611101LAug 30 · 18:30O. Leonenko2.001111113S. Skhabitskiy1.737470LAug 30 · 17:30M. Stetsenko1.8371111113S. Skhabitskiy1.83119831LAug 30 · 16:00B. Zaika1.441011811113S. Skhabitskiy2.6312511782WAug 30 · 14:00O. Ovsiienko2.633990S. Skhabitskiy1.441111113LAug 30 · 12:00A. Kurtenko1.441111113S. Skhabitskiy2.637960
F. Voinarovskyi10
LSep 5 · 18:30D. Patalakha1.73121011113F. Voinarovskyi2.001012591WSep 5 · 17:30S. Solomko1.919790F. Voinarovskyi1.801111113LSep 5 · 16:00V. Smyk1.8311115113F. Voinarovskyi1.83771121WSep 5 · 12:00A. Kurtenko3.5011381272F. Voinarovskyi1.286111110113LAug 29 · 18:00S. Solomko2.10111011113F. Voinarovskyi1.67612691WAug 29 · 17:00F. Voinarovskyi1.831111123E. Populovskyi1.8353100LAug 29 · 16:00F. Voinarovskyi2.00610100O. Osadchyi1.731112123LAug 29 · 14:30F. Voinarovskyi3.006113111A. Martyniuk1.3611711133LAug 29 · 12:30F. Voinarovskyi3.4091450O. Tymofeev1.30111683WAug 27 · 12:50F. Voinarovskyi3.001311113E. Populovskyi1.3611370
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