TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13022563
Played Aug 27Finished
Oleksandr Ovsiienko
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
911116115116––
Vasily Kondratenko
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:55 and never touched — 62.9% is still 62.9%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Ovsiienko to win
62.9%
62.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Ovsiienko above · Vasily Kondratenko below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 70 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Oleksandr Ovsiienko at 62.9%
70 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Ovsiienko 19–8 Vasily Kondratenko Vasily Kondratenko has won 8 of their 27 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:55What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Ovsiienko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-8 in 27
Ovsiienko
Correct
gap of 11 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ovsiienko 1431 vs Kondratenko 1234
Ovsiienko
Correct
both rated, 197 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ovsiienko 20% vs Kondratenko 60%
Kondratenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ovsiienko 40% vs Kondratenko 60%
Kondratenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ovsiienko +1 · Kondratenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Ovsiienko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kondratenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOvsiienko 1.57 / Kondratenko 2.25
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Ovsiienko)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13022563
Ovsiienko1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite67% won 146 of 219
Up 2–0, closes it98% 91 of 93
Up 1–0, closes it86% 118 of 138
Kondratenko2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog28% won 32 of 115
Down 0–1, comes back14% 9 of 66
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOvsiienko8wins
AwayKondratenko2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderOvsiienko leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOvsiienko85.7%6 of 7
AwayKondratenko33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ovsiienko7Kondratenko3n = 10Ovsiienko took 7 of 10
S2Ovsiienko6Kondratenko4n = 10Ovsiienko took 6 of 10
S3Ovsiienko5Kondratenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Ovsiienko8Kondratenko1n = 9Ovsiienko took 8 of 9
S5Ovsiienko2Kondratenko2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricOvsiienkoKondratenkoO − KBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match43.938.6+5.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOvsiienkoKondratenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime439 / 846 vs 269 / 60051.9%44.8%439 / 846 vs 269 / 600Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.636.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OvsiienkoOvsiienko 1.57/Kondratenko 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.9%
Ovsiienko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Ovsiienko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 27 · 06:30O. Ovsiienko—91111113V. Kondratenko—116561
WAug 21 · 09:35O. Ovsiienko—61112123V. Kondratenko—11910101
WAug 13 · 12:50O. Ovsiienko—11116153V. Kondratenko—4311131
WAug 12 · 10:35O. Ovsiienko—1311113V. Kondratenko—11670
LAug 10 · 04:30O. Ovsiienko—11891162V. Kondratenko—611119113
WAug 9 · 18:30O. Ovsiienko—1171011113V. Kondratenko—91112862
WAug 8 · 08:30O. Ovsiienko—111110113V. Kondratenko—951251
LAug 3 · 10:00O. Ovsiienko—811139102V. Kondratenko—1181111123
WJul 30 · 10:35O. Ovsiienko—115514133V. Kondratenko—7111112112
WJul 27 · 10:00O. Ovsiienko—12711113V. Kondratenko—1011661
O. Ovsiienko10
WSep 7 · 07:05O. Shyshman1.507860O. Ovsiienko2.501111113LSep 7 · 05:05K. Klymenko2.6311139113O. Ovsiienko1.443111191WSep 6 · 19:00K. Klymenko2.638101181O. Ovsiienko1.4411128113LSep 6 · 17:30O. Ovsiienko1.918640S. Baranskyi1.801111113LSep 6 · 15:30O. Leonenko1.5011119113O. Ovsiienko2.50891171LSep 6 · 13:30V. Smyk1.617111173O. Ovsiienko2.20116621LSep 6 · 12:30B. Zaika1.3611311113O. Ovsiienko3.00811651LSep 3 · 12:20O. Leonenko1.509111110113O. Ovsiienko2.5011971212LSep 3 · 11:20A. Kovalenko1.611111123O. Ovsiienko2.2049100WSep 3 · 09:50K. Klymenko3.0011812562O. Ovsiienko1.369111011113
V. Kondratenko10
LAug 28 · 09:35K. Klymenko1.509101111113V. Kondratenko2.5011127482LAug 28 · 08:35V. Kondratenko2.00813100S. Skhabitskiy1.731115123LAug 28 · 07:35V. Stukalov2.2071111113V. Kondratenko1.61116481LAug 28 · 06:05V. Kondratenko2.20116691O. Mytsyk1.6181111113LAug 27 · 11:00O. Mytsyk1.67511119113V. Kondratenko2.1011261172WAug 27 · 10:00V. Melnykov1.911011311102V. Kondratenko1.80128119123LAug 27 · 08:30K. Klymenko1.5311119113V. Kondratenko2.38991181WAug 27 · 04:30V. Mukhin2.508115101V. Kondratenko1.5011711123LAug 24 · 11:35V. Kondratenko2.508121321M. Khalenko1.50111411113LAug 24 · 09:35V. Korniichuk2.001111113V. Kondratenko1.736470
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