TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12481766
Played Aug 24Finished
Vitalii Korniichuk
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116114117––––
Vasily Kondratenko
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:41 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVasily Kondratenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingVitalii Korniichuk above · Vasily Kondratenko below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 50 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Vasily Kondratenko at 54.0%
50 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Korniichuk 0–3 Vasily Kondratenko Vitalii Korniichuk has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:41What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kondratenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-3 in 3
Kondratenko
Wrong
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Korniichuk 1327 vs Kondratenko 1302
Korniichuk
Correct
both rated, 25 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Korniichuk 20% vs Kondratenko 80%
Kondratenko
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Korniichuk 30% vs Kondratenko 60%
Kondratenko
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Korniichuk -3 · Kondratenko +2
Korniichuk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kondratenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kondratenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKorniichuk 2.00 / Kondratenko 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kondratenko)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #12481766
Korniichuk2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog37% won 31 of 83
Down 0–1, comes back23% 11 of 47
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 27
Kondratenko1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 83 of 135
Up 2–0, closes it97% 37 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it83% 57 of 69
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeKorniichuk0wins
AwayKondratenko3wins
1 of 3 to a deciderKondratenko leads 3–0, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKorniichukn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayKondratenko100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Korniichuk0Kondratenko3n = 3Kondratenko took 3 of 3
S2Korniichuk2Kondratenko1n = 3Korniichuk took 2 of 3
S3Korniichuk0Kondratenko3n = 3Kondratenko took 3 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricKorniichukKondratenkoKorniichuk − KondratenkoBasisWins03−3in 3 meetingsFirst set03−3of 3Avg pointsper match36.040.3−4.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKorniichukKondratenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime269 / 487 vs 274 / 60255.2%45.5%269 / 487 vs 274 / 602Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KondratenkoKorniichuk 2.00/Kondratenko 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kondratenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Korniichuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LJun 18 · 07:20V. Korniichuk—911971V. Kondratenko—11311113
LJun 15 · 08:50V. Korniichuk—811111162V. Kondratenko—117136113
LMar 9 · 10:30V. Korniichuk—13840V. Kondratenko—1511113
V. Korniichuk10
WSep 7 · 07:20V. Korniichuk1.53111011113S. Semenets2.38912471LSep 7 · 05:50V. Korniichuk2.7511470M. Stetsenko1.401311113WSep 3 · 11:05D. Khavanskyi2.00871141V. Korniichuk1.7311114113WSep 3 · 10:05V. Korniichuk1.20111011113S. Osipov4.33712541WSep 3 · 09:05V. Korniichuk1.281111113M. Khalenko3.509970LSep 3 · 07:35V. Korniichuk1.3671111882V. Stukalov3.00119611113WSep 3 · 05:35V. Korniichuk1.611251011123S. Semenets2.201011123102LSep 1 · 11:35V. Korniichuk1.61111411682D. Khavanskyi2.20716911113WSep 1 · 09:35O. Miklukha2.63711111062V. Korniichuk1.44117912113LSep 1 · 08:35V. Korniichuk1.5311791182S. Semenets2.38911119113
V. Kondratenko10
LAug 28 · 09:35K. Klymenko1.509101111113V. Kondratenko2.5011127482LAug 28 · 08:35V. Kondratenko2.00813100S. Skhabitskiy1.731115123LAug 28 · 07:35V. Stukalov2.2071111113V. Kondratenko1.61116481LAug 28 · 06:05V. Kondratenko2.20116691O. Mytsyk1.6181111113LAug 27 · 11:00O. Mytsyk1.67511119113V. Kondratenko2.1011261172WAug 27 · 10:00V. Melnykov1.911011311102V. Kondratenko1.80128119123LAug 27 · 08:30K. Klymenko1.5311119113V. Kondratenko2.38991181LAug 27 · 06:30O. Ovsiienko1.5791111113V. Kondratenko2.25116561WAug 27 · 04:30V. Mukhin2.508115101V. Kondratenko1.5011711123LAug 24 · 11:35V. Kondratenko2.508121321M. Khalenko1.50111411113
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