TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13054605
Played Sep 1Finished
Vitalii Korniichuk
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119711911119811
Serhii Semenets
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:15 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeVitalii Korniichuk to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingVitalii Korniichuk above · Serhii Semenets below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 97 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Vitalii Korniichuk at 58.9%
97 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Korniichuk 4–2 Serhii Semenets Serhii Semenets has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:15What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Korniichuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Korniichuk
Wrong
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Korniichuk 1326 vs Semenets 1266
Korniichuk
Wrong
both rated, 60 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Korniichuk 40% vs Semenets 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Korniichuk 40% vs Semenets 60%
Semenets
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Korniichuk +1 · Semenets -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Korniichuk) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Korniichuk form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKorniichuk 1.53 / Semenets 2.38
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Korniichuk)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13054605
Korniichuk1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite69% won 68 of 99
Up 2–0, closes it98% 40 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it85% 51 of 60
Semenets2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog34% won 42 of 123
Down 0–1, comes back19% 13 of 67
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeKorniichuk4wins
AwaySemenets2wins
3 of 6 to a deciderKorniichuk leads 4–2, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKorniichuk100%3 of 3
AwaySemenets66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Korniichuk3Semenets3n = 6split evenly
S2Korniichuk2Semenets4n = 6Semenets took 4 of 6
S3Korniichuk5Semenets1n = 6Korniichuk took 5 of 6
S4Korniichuk1Semenets4n = 5Semenets took 4 of 5
S5Korniichuk3Semenets0n = 3Korniichuk took 3 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home350%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricKorniichukSemenetsK − SBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match40.240.20.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKorniichukSemenetsBasisWin rate · lifetime271 / 491 vs 415 / 82555.2%50.3%271 / 491 vs 415 / 825Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KorniichukKorniichuk 1.53/Semenets 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62%
Korniichuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Semenets won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LAug 24 · 06:35V. Korniichuk—691181S. Semenets—11118113
WMay 19 · 09:05V. Korniichuk—1111115113S. Semenets—91321192
WApr 27 · 11:05V. Korniichuk—1111113S. Semenets—9970
WApr 24 · 10:30V. Korniichuk—611119113S. Semenets—11561192
WApr 22 · 10:30V. Korniichuk—116712113S. Semenets—911111072
LApr 20 · 10:30V. Korniichuk—4101151S. Semenets—11127113
V. Korniichuk10
WSep 7 · 07:20V. Korniichuk1.53111011113S. Semenets2.38912471LSep 7 · 05:50V. Korniichuk2.7511470M. Stetsenko1.401311113WSep 3 · 11:05D. Khavanskyi2.00871141V. Korniichuk1.7311114113WSep 3 · 10:05V. Korniichuk1.20111011113S. Osipov4.33712541WSep 3 · 09:05V. Korniichuk1.281111113M. Khalenko3.509970LSep 3 · 07:35V. Korniichuk1.3671111882V. Stukalov3.00119611113WSep 3 · 05:35V. Korniichuk1.611251011123S. Semenets2.201011123102LSep 1 · 11:35V. Korniichuk1.61111411682D. Khavanskyi2.20716911113WSep 1 · 09:35O. Miklukha2.63711111062V. Korniichuk1.44117912113WSep 1 · 07:35V. Stukalov3.00661141V. Korniichuk1.3611118113
S. Semenets10
LSep 7 · 07:20V. Korniichuk1.53111011113S. Semenets2.38912471LSep 7 · 06:20V. Stukalov1.831111113S. Semenets1.835930LSep 5 · 11:35O. Stopin1.915111011133S. Semenets1.80115126112WSep 5 · 10:35V. Varchenko2.6310119121S. Semenets1.4412811143LSep 5 · 09:05V. Stukalov1.831511153S. Semenets1.83137130WSep 5 · 07:05V. Kucheriavyi1.831111361S. Semenets1.8313811113WSep 5 · 05:05V. Mukhin1.4411126762S. Semenets2.639101111113LSep 4 · 19:00S. Semenets2.25811891M. Khalenko1.5711511113WSep 4 · 17:00Y. Korotin1.91100S. Semenets1.80121LSep 3 · 05:35V. Korniichuk1.611251011123S. Semenets2.201011123102
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