TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084829
Played Sep 6Finished
Dmytro Patalakha
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
211911117116115
Oleksandr Lipeiko
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:09 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDmytro Patalakha to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDmytro Patalakha above · Oleksandr Lipeiko below
Set 1 · 2-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 84 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Dmytro Patalakha at 54.0%
84 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Patalakha 6–8 Oleksandr Lipeiko Dmytro Patalakha has won 6 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:09What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Patalakha
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-8 in 14
Lipeiko
Wrong
gap of 2 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Patalakha 1481 vs Lipeiko 1407
Patalakha
Correct
both rated, 74 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Patalakha 40% vs Lipeiko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Patalakha 70% vs Lipeiko 20%
Patalakha
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Patalakha +1 · Lipeiko +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Patalakha)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Patalakha form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPatalakha 1.73 / Lipeiko 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Patalakha)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13084829
Patalakha1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 31 of 53
Up 2–0, closes it89% 8 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it70% 14 of 20
Lipeiko2.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 54 of 130
Down 0–1, comes back27% 18 of 68
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePatalakha4wins
AwayLipeiko6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLipeiko leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePatalakha40%2 of 5
AwayLipeiko60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Patalakha5Lipeiko5n = 10split evenly
S2Patalakha5Lipeiko5n = 10split evenly
S3Patalakha5Lipeiko5n = 10split evenly
S4Patalakha5Lipeiko5n = 10split evenly
S5Patalakha1Lipeiko3n = 4Lipeiko took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPatalakhaLipeikoP − LBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.742.6+0.1per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPatalakhaLipeikoBasisWin rate · lifetime123 / 256 vs 244 / 50648.1%48.2%123 / 256 vs 244 / 506Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PatalakhaPatalakha 1.73/Lipeiko 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Patalakha · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Patalakha won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 25 · 12:00D. Patalakha—1271361O. Lipeiko—101115113
LMay 17 · 06:50D. Patalakha—129116102O. Lipeiko—1011711123
LMar 21 · 22:50D. Patalakha—111211882O. Lipeiko—914811113
LFeb 22 · 13:20D. Patalakha—1171151O. Lipeiko—1311683
LFeb 7 · 19:50D. Patalakha—8119101O. Lipeiko—11711123
WOct 25 · 20:50D. Patalakha—111511113O. Lipeiko—717821
WOct 19 · 09:20D. Patalakha—11119113O. Lipeiko—481181
LOct 4 · 21:50D. Patalakha—81171172O. Lipeiko—116117113
WSep 20 · 19:50D. Patalakha—61111113O. Lipeiko—118791
WSep 7 · 12:20D. Patalakha—413711113O. Lipeiko—111111982
D. Patalakha10
WSep 6 · 11:50D. Patalakha1.501111113E. Populovskyi2.508570WSep 6 · 08:50D. Patalakha2.0011137113A. Kovalenko1.734111171LSep 6 · 07:20D. Patalakha1.73119391S. Solomko2.0071111113LSep 6 · 05:50D. Patalakha1.61781171M. Stetsenko2.2011114113WSep 5 · 18:30D. Patalakha1.73121011113F. Voinarovskyi2.001012591LSep 5 · 16:30A. Kurtenko1.571171163D. Patalakha2.25911621WSep 5 · 15:30D. Patalakha1.8311112S. Solomko1.83690WSep 5 · 14:30V. Smyk2.388118111D. Patalakha1.5311711133WSep 5 · 13:00D. Patalakha3.50111149123O. Tymofeev1.28191111102WAug 13 · 18:35M. Skliar1.671188121D. Patalakha2.1091111143
O. Lipeiko10
LSep 7 · 06:05O. Lipeiko2.508460O. Shyshman1.501111113LSep 6 · 12:20O. Lipeiko1.571171091M. Stetsenko2.2511112113WSep 6 · 09:20O. Lipeiko1.91611611153S. Solomko1.80111118132WSep 6 · 08:20E. Populovskyi2.202390O. Lipeiko1.611111113LSep 6 · 06:50O. Lipeiko1.83109100A. Kovalenko1.831211123LSep 2 · 12:05O. Lipeiko1.83111011852S. Solomko1.83812711113LSep 2 · 10:05A. Kurtenko1.8091111113O. Lipeiko1.91119861LSep 2 · 08:05O. Osadchyi1.731111113O. Lipeiko2.003730LSep 2 · 07:05O. Lipeiko1.5315413372E. Populovskyi2.3813111111113LSep 2 · 06:05S. Hryhorenko1.531111113O. Lipeiko2.386690
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