TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13060614
Played Sep 2Finished
Oleksandr Lipeiko
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
15134111311311711
Eduard Populovskyi
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:56 and never touched — 61.2% is still 61.2%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Lipeiko to win
61.2%
61.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOleksandr Lipeiko above · Eduard Populovskyi below
Set 1 · 15-13
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 3-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 99 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Oleksandr Lipeiko at 61.2%
99 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Lipeiko 17–16 Eduard Populovskyi Eduard Populovskyi has won 16 of their 33 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:56What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Lipeiko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-16 in 33
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lipeiko 1390 vs Populovskyi 1421
Populovskyi
Correct
both rated, 32 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lipeiko 20% vs Populovskyi 40%
Populovskyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lipeiko 40% vs Populovskyi 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lipeiko -3 · Populovskyi -1
Lipeiko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Lipeiko) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lipeiko form (20%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLipeiko 1.53 / Populovskyi 2.38
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Lipeiko)-2.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13060614
Lipeiko1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite53% won 63 of 118
Up 2–0, closes it83% 39 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it74% 51 of 69
Populovskyi2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 54 of 163
Down 0–1, comes back19% 20 of 103
Down 0–2, comes back8% 6 of 72
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLipeiko6wins
AwayPopulovskyi4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLipeiko leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLipeiko75%6 of 8
AwayPopulovskyin = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lipeiko8Populovskyi2n = 10Lipeiko took 8 of 10
S2Lipeiko8Populovskyi2n = 10Lipeiko took 8 of 10
S3Lipeiko4Populovskyi6n = 10Populovskyi took 6 of 10
S4Lipeiko3Populovskyi3n = 6split evenly
S5Lipeiko1Populovskyi3n = 4Populovskyi took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricLipeikoPopulovskyiL − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match38.334.5+3.8per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLipeikoPopulovskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime242 / 503 vs 341 / 69548.1%49.1%242 / 503 vs 341 / 695Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.636.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LipeikoLipeiko 1.53/Populovskyi 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.4%
Lipeiko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Populovskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 2 · 07:05O. Lipeiko—15413372E. Populovskyi—13111111113
WAug 24 · 10:20O. Lipeiko—1111113E. Populovskyi—3980
LAug 17 · 12:05O. Lipeiko—111199102E. Populovskyi—591111123
WJul 23 · 11:35O. Lipeiko—111110113E. Populovskyi—481261
LMay 23 · 20:20O. Lipeiko—71131142E. Populovskyi—116115113
WMay 17 · 07:50O. Lipeiko—11129153E. Populovskyi—41011131
WApr 25 · 14:50O. Lipeiko—1111113E. Populovskyi—7450
LApr 24 · 11:35O. Lipeiko—65100E. Populovskyi—1111123
WApr 20 · 08:35O. Lipeiko—111175113E. Populovskyi—88111142
WApr 13 · 08:00O. Lipeiko—1111113E. Populovskyi—4750
O. Lipeiko10
LSep 7 · 06:05O. Lipeiko2.508460O. Shyshman1.501111113LSep 6 · 12:20O. Lipeiko1.571171091M. Stetsenko2.2511112113LSep 6 · 10:20D. Patalakha1.73291111113O. Lipeiko2.0011117652WSep 6 · 09:20O. Lipeiko1.91611611153S. Solomko1.80111118132WSep 6 · 08:20E. Populovskyi2.202390O. Lipeiko1.611111113LSep 6 · 06:50O. Lipeiko1.83109100A. Kovalenko1.831211123LSep 2 · 12:05O. Lipeiko1.83111011852S. Solomko1.83812711113LSep 2 · 10:05A. Kurtenko1.8091111113O. Lipeiko1.91119861LSep 2 · 08:05O. Osadchyi1.731111113O. Lipeiko2.003730LSep 2 · 06:05S. Hryhorenko1.531111113O. Lipeiko2.386690
E. Populovskyi10
LSep 6 · 11:50D. Patalakha1.501111113E. Populovskyi2.508570WSep 6 · 10:50E. Populovskyi1.91811411143A. Kovalenko1.80114119122WSep 6 · 09:50E. Populovskyi1.301111113M. Stetsenko3.406890LSep 6 · 08:20E. Populovskyi2.202390O. Lipeiko1.611111113LSep 6 · 06:20E. Populovskyi3.25117971S. Solomko1.3381111113WSep 4 · 11:35V. Melnykov1.914660E. Populovskyi1.801111113WSep 4 · 10:35O. Mytsyk1.91119881E. Populovskyi1.8091111113WSep 4 · 09:05K. Klymenko3.4059100E. Populovskyi1.301111123LSep 4 · 07:05A. Kovalenko1.8391111113E. Populovskyi1.83117771WSep 4 · 05:05M. Stetsenko3.406116111E. Populovskyi1.3011911133
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