TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067018
Played Sep 3Finished
Maksym Stetsenko
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
411711115119611
Oleksandr Ovsiienko
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:08 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeMaksym Stetsenko to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongpick shipped
How it is goingMaksym Stetsenko above · Oleksandr Ovsiienko below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 86 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Maksym Stetsenko at 56.2%
86 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Stetsenko 56–67 Oleksandr Ovsiienko Maksym Stetsenko has won 56 of their 123 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:08What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Stetsenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
56-67 in 123
Ovsiienko
Correct
gap of 11 in 123, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stetsenko 1391 vs Ovsiienko 1454
Ovsiienko
Correct
both rated, 63 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stetsenko 80% vs Ovsiienko 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stetsenko 60% vs Ovsiienko 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stetsenko +1 · Ovsiienko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Stetsenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ovsiienko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStetsenko 1.67 / Ovsiienko 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Stetsenko)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13067018
Stetsenko1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite68% won 129 of 189
Up 2–0, closes it99% 74 of 75
Up 1–0, closes it89% 100 of 112
Ovsiienko2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 81 of 213
Down 0–1, comes back15% 17 of 116
Down 0–2, comes back6% 5 of 78
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStetsenko8wins
AwayOvsiienko2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderStetsenko leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStetsenko100%6 of 6
AwayOvsiienko50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stetsenko6Ovsiienko4n = 10Stetsenko took 6 of 10
S2Stetsenko8Ovsiienko2n = 10Stetsenko took 8 of 10
S3Stetsenko7Ovsiienko3n = 10Stetsenko took 7 of 10
S4Stetsenko3Ovsiienko3n = 6split evenly
S5Stetsenko2Ovsiienko1n = 3Stetsenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStetsenkoOvsiienkoS − OBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.435.2+5.2per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStetsenkoOvsiienkoBasisWin rate · lifetime438 / 831 vs 440 / 84552.7%52.1%438 / 831 vs 440 / 845Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.236.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StetsenkoStetsenko 1.67/Ovsiienko 2.10
Miss
What we said
56.2%
Stetsenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Ovsiienko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 31 · 07:50M. Stetsenko—1111123O. Ovsiienko—86100
WAug 30 · 19:00M. Stetsenko—1111123O. Ovsiienko—54100
WAug 26 · 17:30M. Stetsenko—81111113O. Ovsiienko—116691
LAug 24 · 11:20M. Stetsenko—101030O. Ovsiienko—1212113
WAug 23 · 16:10M. Stetsenko—1413119123O. Ovsiienko—1611811102
WAug 20 · 07:50M. Stetsenko—1261110113O. Ovsiienko—101191282
LAug 19 · 19:00M. Stetsenko—111111762O. Ovsiienko—138411113
WAug 17 · 09:50M. Stetsenko—11136113O. Ovsiienko—9111171
WAug 16 · 18:30M. Stetsenko—1111113O. Ovsiienko—9870
WAug 6 · 11:20M. Stetsenko—11118133O. Ovsiienko—3211111
M. Stetsenko10
WSep 7 · 05:50V. Korniichuk2.7511470M. Stetsenko1.401311113WSep 6 · 12:20O. Lipeiko1.571171091M. Stetsenko2.2511112113LSep 6 · 11:20S. Solomko1.251211113M. Stetsenko3.7510670LSep 6 · 09:50E. Populovskyi1.301111113M. Stetsenko3.406890LSep 6 · 07:50A. Kovalenko1.4012711113M. Stetsenko2.751011791WSep 6 · 05:50D. Patalakha1.61781171M. Stetsenko2.2011114113LSep 4 · 11:05M. Stetsenko2.6368120K. Klymenko1.441111143LSep 4 · 09:35M. Stetsenko1.73611831V. Melnykov2.0011311113LSep 4 · 08:05M. Stetsenko2.631111171A. Kovalenko1.4411813113WSep 4 · 06:35M. Stetsenko1.4411714113O. Mytsyk2.636111241
O. Ovsiienko10
WSep 7 · 07:05O. Shyshman1.507860O. Ovsiienko2.501111113LSep 7 · 05:05K. Klymenko2.6311139113O. Ovsiienko1.443111191WSep 6 · 19:00K. Klymenko2.638101181O. Ovsiienko1.4411128113LSep 6 · 17:30O. Ovsiienko1.918640S. Baranskyi1.801111113LSep 6 · 15:30O. Leonenko1.5011119113O. Ovsiienko2.50891171LSep 6 · 13:30V. Smyk1.617111173O. Ovsiienko2.20116621LSep 6 · 12:30B. Zaika1.3611311113O. Ovsiienko3.00811651LSep 3 · 12:20O. Leonenko1.509111110113O. Ovsiienko2.5011971212LSep 3 · 11:20A. Kovalenko1.611111123O. Ovsiienko2.2049100WSep 3 · 09:50K. Klymenko3.0011812562O. Ovsiienko1.369111011113
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