TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13043810
Played Aug 30Finished
Oleksandr Osadchyi
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119119118––––
Oleksandr Tymofeev
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:49 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Osadchyi to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Osadchyi above · Oleksandr Tymofeev below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 59 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Oleksandr Osadchyi at 54.0%
59 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Osadchyi 5–6 Oleksandr Tymofeev Oleksandr Osadchyi has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:49What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Osadchyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-6 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Osadchyi 1527 vs Tymofeev 1503
Osadchyi
Correct
both rated, 24 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Osadchyi 60% vs Tymofeev 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Osadchyi 50% vs Tymofeev 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Osadchyi +1 · Tymofeev +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Osadchyi)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOsadchyi 1.80 / Tymofeev 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Osadchyi)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13043810
Osadchyi1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite70% won 112 of 160
Up 2–0, closes it97% 63 of 65
Up 1–0, closes it87% 85 of 98
Tymofeev1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 38 of 109
Down 0–1, comes back18% 11 of 60
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOsadchyi4wins
AwayTymofeev6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderTymofeev leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOsadchyi50%2 of 4
AwayTymofeev66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Osadchyi4Tymofeev6n = 10Tymofeev took 6 of 10
S2Osadchyi3Tymofeev7n = 10Tymofeev took 7 of 10
S3Osadchyi3Tymofeev7n = 10Tymofeev took 7 of 10
S4Osadchyi4Tymofeev2n = 6Osadchyi took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricOsadchyiTymofeevO − TBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match33.637.6−4.0per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOsadchyiTymofeevBasisWin rate · lifetime434 / 856 vs 275 / 53150.7%51.8%434 / 856 vs 275 / 531Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.437.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OsadchyiOsadchyi 1.80/Tymofeev 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Osadchyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Osadchyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 24 · 07:00O. Osadchyi—7360O. Tymofeev—1111113
WAug 16 · 06:50O. Osadchyi—1111711113O. Tymofeev—77111382
LAug 15 · 16:30O. Osadchyi—71340O. Tymofeev—1115113
WAug 9 · 10:20O. Osadchyi—11911113O. Tymofeev—911361
LAug 8 · 15:30O. Osadchyi—7960O. Tymofeev—1111113
LAug 2 · 07:00O. Osadchyi—115101122O. Tymofeev—511124113
LJul 28 · 12:40O. Osadchyi—67120O. Tymofeev—1111143
WJul 26 · 10:50O. Osadchyi—121111143O. Tymofeev—1458121
WJul 21 · 15:40O. Osadchyi—81212113O. Tymofeev—11101071
LJul 19 · 09:50O. Osadchyi—115551O. Tymofeev—91111113
O. Osadchyi10
LSep 7 · 06:00O. Osadchyi5.004690A. Troyan1.141111113WSep 7 · 04:30O. Osadchyi1.831112113O. Volynets1.8361060LSep 3 · 10:30O. Osadchyi1.53117651I. Emets2.3851111113LSep 3 · 09:00O. Osadchyi1.737410D. Khairov2.001111113WSep 3 · 07:30O. Osadchyi1.6781111113A. Kurtenko2.10114571WSep 3 · 06:00O. Osadchyi2.2012511113S. Solomko1.611011731WSep 3 · 04:30O. Osadchyi1.30119118113E. Populovskyi3.4031161172WSep 2 · 11:05O. Osadchyi1.7311711123A. Kurtenko2.006115101WSep 2 · 09:35O. Osadchyi2.3811115113S. Hryhorenko1.53491141WSep 2 · 08:05O. Osadchyi1.731111113O. Lipeiko2.003730
O. Tymofeev10
WSep 5 · 19:00O. Tymofeev1.44111110113S. Solomko2.63771281LSep 5 · 17:00V. Smyk2.501111113O. Tymofeev1.506770WSep 5 · 15:00A. Kurtenko2.10851251O. Tymofeev1.6711111073LSep 5 · 13:00D. Patalakha3.50111149123O. Tymofeev1.28191111102LAug 30 · 12:50O. Tymofeev1.4071111872S. Solomko2.75116611113LAug 30 · 10:50D. Khairov1.73711127123O. Tymofeev2.001151011102WAug 30 · 07:50O. Tymofeev2.2011119113E. Populovskyi1.61591171LAug 30 · 06:50S. Hryhorenko1.8061111123O. Tymofeev1.911189101WAug 29 · 19:00E. Populovskyi2.2078111132O. Tymofeev1.61111169113LAug 29 · 17:30O. Tymofeev1.80431171O. Osadchyi1.911111883
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