TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13043994
Played Aug 30Finished
Oleksandr Tymofeev
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
115119911117––
Eduard Populovskyi
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:48 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeEduard Populovskyi to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOleksandr Tymofeev above · Eduard Populovskyi below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 74 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Eduard Populovskyi at 54.9%
74 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Tymofeev 8–24 Eduard Populovskyi Oleksandr Tymofeev has won 8 of their 32 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:48What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Populovskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-24 in 32
Populovskyi
Wrong
gap of 16 in 32, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tymofeev 1461 vs Populovskyi 1436
Tymofeev
Correct
both rated, 25 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tymofeev 40% vs Populovskyi 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tymofeev 50% vs Populovskyi 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tymofeev -1 · Populovskyi +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Populovskyi) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Populovskyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTymofeev 2.20 / Populovskyi 1.61
Signal prob.44% / 57%
Edge (Populovskyi)-1.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13043994
Tymofeev2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 37 of 107
Down 0–1, comes back18% 11 of 60
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 36
Populovskyi1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite55% won 101 of 185
Up 2–0, closes it95% 54 of 57
Up 1–0, closes it84% 76 of 90
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTymofeev2wins
AwayPopulovskyi8wins
7 of 10 to a deciderPopulovskyi leads 8–2, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTymofeev50%2 of 4
AwayPopulovskyi100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tymofeev4Populovskyi6n = 10Populovskyi took 6 of 10
S2Tymofeev6Populovskyi4n = 10Tymofeev took 6 of 10
S3Tymofeev3Populovskyi7n = 10Populovskyi took 7 of 10
S4Tymofeev4Populovskyi4n = 8split evenly
S5Tymofeev1Populovskyi6n = 7Populovskyi took 6 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away660%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricTymofeevPopulovskyiT − PBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.744.2−2.5per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTymofeevPopulovskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime272 / 529 vs 337 / 68451.4%49.3%272 / 529 vs 337 / 684Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.236.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PopulovskyiTymofeev 2.20/Populovskyi 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.5%
Populovskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Tymofeev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 30 · 07:50O. Tymofeev—11119113E. Populovskyi—591171
WAug 29 · 19:00O. Tymofeev—111169113E. Populovskyi—78111132
LAug 16 · 10:20O. Tymofeev—61311992E. Populovskyi—1111611113
LAug 15 · 15:30O. Tymofeev—11811992E. Populovskyi—911311113
LAug 9 · 07:20O. Tymofeev—910100E. Populovskyi—1112123
LAug 2 · 11:00O. Tymofeev—77111172E. Populovskyi—111198113
LJul 28 · 17:40O. Tymofeev—111181272E. Populovskyi—1361110113
LJul 19 · 06:20O. Tymofeev—91231182E. Populovskyi—1110119113
LApr 19 · 09:20O. Tymofeev—131111962E. Populovskyi—1181311113
LApr 18 · 16:50O. Tymofeev—1970E. Populovskyi—1111113
O. Tymofeev10
WSep 5 · 19:00O. Tymofeev1.44111110113S. Solomko2.63771281LSep 5 · 17:00V. Smyk2.501111113O. Tymofeev1.506770WSep 5 · 15:00A. Kurtenko2.10851251O. Tymofeev1.6711111073LSep 5 · 13:00D. Patalakha3.50111149123O. Tymofeev1.28191111102LAug 30 · 12:50O. Tymofeev1.4071111872S. Solomko2.75116611113LAug 30 · 10:50D. Khairov1.73711127123O. Tymofeev2.001151011102LAug 30 · 08:50O. Osadchyi1.801111113O. Tymofeev1.919980LAug 30 · 06:50S. Hryhorenko1.8061111123O. Tymofeev1.911189101WAug 29 · 19:00E. Populovskyi2.2078111132O. Tymofeev1.61111169113LAug 29 · 17:30O. Tymofeev1.80431171O. Osadchyi1.911111883
E. Populovskyi10
LSep 6 · 11:50D. Patalakha1.501111113E. Populovskyi2.508570WSep 6 · 10:50E. Populovskyi1.91811411143A. Kovalenko1.80114119122WSep 6 · 09:50E. Populovskyi1.301111113M. Stetsenko3.406890LSep 6 · 08:20E. Populovskyi2.202390O. Lipeiko1.611111113LSep 6 · 06:20E. Populovskyi3.25117971S. Solomko1.3381111113WSep 4 · 11:35V. Melnykov1.914660E. Populovskyi1.801111113WSep 4 · 10:35O. Mytsyk1.91119881E. Populovskyi1.8091111113WSep 4 · 09:05K. Klymenko3.4059100E. Populovskyi1.301111123LSep 4 · 07:05A. Kovalenko1.8391111113E. Populovskyi1.83117771LAug 29 · 19:00E. Populovskyi2.2078111132O. Tymofeev1.61111169113
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