TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13043849
Played Aug 30Finished
Stepan Hryhorenko
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
6111181191210––
Oleksandr Tymofeev
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:47 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeStepan Hryhorenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingStepan Hryhorenko above · Oleksandr Tymofeev below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 78 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Stepan Hryhorenko at 54.0%
78 points played in total.
H2H Stepan Hryhorenko 2–1 Oleksandr Tymofeev Oleksandr Tymofeev has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:47What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Hryhorenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hryhorenko 1514 vs Tymofeev 1461
Hryhorenko
Correct
both rated, 52 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hryhorenko 20% vs Tymofeev 60%
Tymofeev
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hryhorenko 20% vs Tymofeev 50%
Tymofeev
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hryhorenko -4 · Tymofeev +1
Hryhorenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Hryhorenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hryhorenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHryhorenko 1.80 / Tymofeev 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Hryhorenko)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13043849
Hryhorenko1.80
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite50% won 22 of 44
Up 2–0, closes it78% 14 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it64% 16 of 25
Tymofeev1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 37 of 107
Down 0–1, comes back18% 11 of 60
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeHryhorenko2wins
AwayTymofeev1wins
2 of 3 to a deciderHryhorenko leads 2–1, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hryhorenko1Tymofeev2n = 3Tymofeev took 2 of 3
S2Hryhorenko1Tymofeev2n = 3Tymofeev took 2 of 3
S3Hryhorenko2Tymofeev1n = 3Hryhorenko took 2 of 3
S4Hryhorenko3Tymofeev0n = 3Hryhorenko took 3 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricHryhorenkoTymofeevH − TBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match49.347.0+2.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHryhorenkoTymofeevBasisWin rate · lifetime48 / 128 vs 272 / 52937.5%51.4%48 / 128 vs 272 / 529Avg sets wonper match1.72.0per matchAvg pointsper match34.337.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HryhorenkoHryhorenko 1.80/Tymofeev 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Hryhorenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Hryhorenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WAug 30 · 06:50S. Hryhorenko—61111123O. Tymofeev—1189101
LJul 11 · 06:05S. Hryhorenko—961111112O. Tymofeev—111146133
WJun 13 · 06:05S. Hryhorenko—1871014113O. Tymofeev—1611121272
S. Hryhorenko10
LSep 2 · 11:35S. Hryhorenko1.73111110792E. Populovskyi2.00751211113LSep 2 · 09:35O. Osadchyi2.3811115113S. Hryhorenko1.53491141LSep 2 · 08:35S. Hryhorenko1.61911791S. Solomko2.2011711113WSep 2 · 07:35A. Kurtenko2.209650S. Hryhorenko1.611111113WSep 2 · 06:05S. Hryhorenko1.531111113O. Lipeiko2.386690LAug 30 · 12:20S. Hryhorenko1.73881161E. Populovskyi2.0011117113WAug 30 · 10:20O. Osadchyi1.837620S. Hryhorenko1.831111113WAug 30 · 09:20S. Hryhorenko1.611281111113S. Solomko2.2014114782WAug 30 · 08:20D. Khairov1.80111110342S. Hryhorenko1.91391211113LAug 17 · 09:00Y. Volkov1.441111113S. Hryhorenko2.638840
O. Tymofeev10
WSep 5 · 19:00O. Tymofeev1.44111110113S. Solomko2.63771281LSep 5 · 17:00V. Smyk2.501111113O. Tymofeev1.506770WSep 5 · 15:00A. Kurtenko2.10851251O. Tymofeev1.6711111073LSep 5 · 13:00D. Patalakha3.50111149123O. Tymofeev1.28191111102LAug 30 · 12:50O. Tymofeev1.4071111872S. Solomko2.75116611113LAug 30 · 10:50D. Khairov1.73711127123O. Tymofeev2.001151011102LAug 30 · 08:50O. Osadchyi1.801111113O. Tymofeev1.919980WAug 30 · 07:50O. Tymofeev2.2011119113E. Populovskyi1.61591171WAug 29 · 19:00E. Populovskyi2.2078111132O. Tymofeev1.61111169113LAug 29 · 17:30O. Tymofeev1.80431171O. Osadchyi1.911111883
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