TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13060729
Played Sep 2Finished
Stepan Hryhorenko
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1171151012711911
Eduard Populovskyi
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:34 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeStepan Hryhorenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingStepan Hryhorenko above · Eduard Populovskyi below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 94 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Stepan Hryhorenko at 54.0%
94 points played in total.
H2H Stepan Hryhorenko 0–1 Eduard Populovskyi Stepan Hryhorenko has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:34What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Hryhorenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Hryhorenko 1514 vs Populovskyi 1418
Hryhorenko
Wrong
both rated, 96 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hryhorenko 40% vs Populovskyi 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hryhorenko 60% vs Populovskyi 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hryhorenko -2 · Populovskyi -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Hryhorenko) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hryhorenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHryhorenko 1.73 / Populovskyi 2.00
Signal prob.57% / 44%
Edge (Hryhorenko)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13060729
Hryhorenko1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite50% won 22 of 44
Up 2–0, closes it78% 14 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it64% 16 of 25
Populovskyi2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 51 of 155
Down 0–1, comes back19% 18 of 97
Down 0–2, comes back7% 5 of 68
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeHryhorenko0wins
AwayPopulovskyi1wins
Populovskyi leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricHryhorenkoPopulovskyiH − PBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match33.040.0−7.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHryhorenkoPopulovskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime50 / 132 vs 338 / 68837.9%49.1%50 / 132 vs 338 / 688Avg sets wonper match1.71.9per matchAvg pointsper match34.236.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HryhorenkoHryhorenko 1.73/Populovskyi 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.5%
Hryhorenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Populovskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LAug 30 · 12:20S. Hryhorenko—881161E. Populovskyi—11117113
S. Hryhorenko10
LSep 2 · 09:35O. Osadchyi2.3811115113S. Hryhorenko1.53491141LSep 2 · 08:35S. Hryhorenko1.61911791S. Solomko2.2011711113WSep 2 · 07:35A. Kurtenko2.209650S. Hryhorenko1.611111113WSep 2 · 06:05S. Hryhorenko1.531111113O. Lipeiko2.386690LAug 30 · 12:20S. Hryhorenko1.73881161E. Populovskyi2.0011117113WAug 30 · 10:20O. Osadchyi1.837620S. Hryhorenko1.831111113WAug 30 · 09:20S. Hryhorenko1.611281111113S. Solomko2.2014114782WAug 30 · 08:20D. Khairov1.80111110342S. Hryhorenko1.91391211113WAug 30 · 06:50S. Hryhorenko1.8061111123O. Tymofeev1.911189101LAug 17 · 09:00Y. Volkov1.441111113S. Hryhorenko2.638840
E. Populovskyi10
LSep 6 · 11:50D. Patalakha1.501111113E. Populovskyi2.508570WSep 6 · 10:50E. Populovskyi1.91811411143A. Kovalenko1.80114119122WSep 6 · 09:50E. Populovskyi1.301111113M. Stetsenko3.406890LSep 6 · 08:20E. Populovskyi2.202390O. Lipeiko1.611111113LSep 6 · 06:20E. Populovskyi3.25117971S. Solomko1.3381111113WSep 4 · 11:35V. Melnykov1.914660E. Populovskyi1.801111113WSep 4 · 10:35O. Mytsyk1.91119881E. Populovskyi1.8091111113WSep 4 · 09:05K. Klymenko3.4059100E. Populovskyi1.301111123LSep 4 · 07:05A. Kovalenko1.8391111113E. Populovskyi1.83117771WAug 30 · 12:20S. Hryhorenko1.73881161E. Populovskyi2.0011117113
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