TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13066916
Played Sep 3Finished
Oleksandr Osadchyi
Home
1.30
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
113911116811117
Eduard Populovskyi
Away
3.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:28 and never touched — 76.7% is still 76.7%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Osadchyi to win
76.7%
76.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Osadchyi above · Eduard Populovskyi below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 88 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Oleksandr Osadchyi at 76.7%
88 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Osadchyi 16–5 Eduard Populovskyi Eduard Populovskyi has won 5 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:28What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Osadchyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-5 in 21
Osadchyi
Correct
gap of 11 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Osadchyi 1564 vs Populovskyi 1432
Osadchyi
Correct
both rated, 132 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Osadchyi 80% vs Populovskyi 40%
Osadchyi
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Osadchyi 70% vs Populovskyi 50%
Osadchyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Osadchyi +3 · Populovskyi +1
Osadchyi
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Osadchyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Populovskyi form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOsadchyi 1.30 / Populovskyi 3.40
Signal prob.77% / 23%
Edge (Osadchyi)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13066916
Osadchyi1.30
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite70% won 114 of 163
Up 2–0, closes it97% 64 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it88% 86 of 98
Populovskyi3.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog33% won 51 of 155
Down 0–1, comes back19% 18 of 97
Down 0–2, comes back7% 5 of 68
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOsadchyi9wins
AwayPopulovskyi1wins
3 of 10 to a deciderOsadchyi leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOsadchyi100%6 of 6
AwayPopulovskyi25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Osadchyi6Populovskyi4n = 10Osadchyi took 6 of 10
S2Osadchyi9Populovskyi1n = 10Osadchyi took 9 of 10
S3Osadchyi7Populovskyi3n = 10Osadchyi took 7 of 10
S4Osadchyi5Populovskyi0n = 5Osadchyi took 5 of 5
S5Osadchyi2Populovskyi1n = 3Osadchyi took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricOsadchyiPopulovskyiO − PBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.227.6+11.6per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOsadchyiPopulovskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime437 / 859 vs 339 / 68950.9%49.2%437 / 859 vs 339 / 689Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.336.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OsadchyiOsadchyi 1.30/Populovskyi 3.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
76.7%
Osadchyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Osadchyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 2 · 05:05O. Osadchyi—1111113E. Populovskyi—9340
LAug 30 · 05:50O. Osadchyi—811111162E. Populovskyi—119133113
WAug 29 · 14:00O. Osadchyi—1111113E. Populovskyi—4730
WAug 16 · 08:50O. Osadchyi—1111143E. Populovskyi—65120
WAug 15 · 13:30O. Osadchyi—21111113E. Populovskyi—114761
WAug 9 · 09:20O. Osadchyi—9111111113E. Populovskyi—11813242
WAug 2 · 08:30O. Osadchyi—1211113E. Populovskyi—10770
WAug 1 · 14:00O. Osadchyi—911711113E. Populovskyi—11611732
WJul 29 · 06:35O. Osadchyi—11611113E. Populovskyi—211591
WJul 28 · 16:10O. Osadchyi—1111113E. Populovskyi—9570
O. Osadchyi10
LSep 7 · 07:30O. Osadchyi2.25111110832S. Solomko1.57861211113LSep 7 · 06:00O. Osadchyi5.004690A. Troyan1.141111113WSep 7 · 04:30O. Osadchyi1.831112113O. Volynets1.8361060LSep 3 · 10:30O. Osadchyi1.53117651I. Emets2.3851111113LSep 3 · 09:00O. Osadchyi1.737410D. Khairov2.001111113WSep 3 · 07:30O. Osadchyi1.6781111113A. Kurtenko2.10114571WSep 3 · 06:00O. Osadchyi2.2012511113S. Solomko1.611011731WSep 2 · 11:05O. Osadchyi1.7311711123A. Kurtenko2.006115101WSep 2 · 09:35O. Osadchyi2.3811115113S. Hryhorenko1.53491141WSep 2 · 08:05O. Osadchyi1.731111113O. Lipeiko2.003730
E. Populovskyi10
LSep 6 · 11:50D. Patalakha1.501111113E. Populovskyi2.508570WSep 6 · 10:50E. Populovskyi1.91811411143A. Kovalenko1.80114119122WSep 6 · 09:50E. Populovskyi1.301111113M. Stetsenko3.406890LSep 6 · 08:20E. Populovskyi2.202390O. Lipeiko1.611111113LSep 6 · 06:20E. Populovskyi3.25117971S. Solomko1.3381111113WSep 4 · 11:35V. Melnykov1.914660E. Populovskyi1.801111113WSep 4 · 10:35O. Mytsyk1.91119881E. Populovskyi1.8091111113WSep 4 · 09:05K. Klymenko3.4059100E. Populovskyi1.301111123LSep 4 · 07:05A. Kovalenko1.8391111113E. Populovskyi1.83117771WSep 4 · 05:05M. Stetsenko3.406116111E. Populovskyi1.3011911133
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