TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13073873
Played Sep 5Finished
Serhii Prus
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119117711911511
Ivan Fashchevskyi
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:37 and never touched — 56.6% is still 56.6%
Graded at full timeIvan Fashchevskyi to win
56.6%
56.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Prus above · Ivan Fashchevskyi below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 92 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Ivan Fashchevskyi at 56.6%
92 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Prus 13–19 Ivan Fashchevskyi Serhii Prus has won 13 of their 32 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:37What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Fashchevskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-19 in 32
Fashchevskyi
Correct
gap of 6 in 32, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Prus 1410 vs Fashchevskyi 1440
Fashchevskyi
Correct
both rated, 30 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Prus 60% vs Fashchevskyi 40%
Prus
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Prus 80% vs Fashchevskyi 40%
Prus
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Prus -2 · Fashchevskyi -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Fashchevskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fashchevskyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPrus 2.10 / Fashchevskyi 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Fashchevskyi)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13073873
Prus2.10
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 35 of 96
Down 0–1, comes back22% 12 of 55
Down 0–2, comes back18% 6 of 34
Fashchevskyi1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite51% won 83 of 164
Up 2–0, closes it85% 28 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it76% 57 of 75
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePrus5wins
AwayFashchevskyi5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePrus75%3 of 4
AwayFashchevskyi66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Prus4Fashchevskyi6n = 10Fashchevskyi took 6 of 10
S2Prus4Fashchevskyi6n = 10Fashchevskyi took 6 of 10
S3Prus8Fashchevskyi2n = 10Prus took 8 of 10
S4Prus4Fashchevskyi3n = 7Prus took 4 of 7
S5Prus2Fashchevskyi3n = 5Fashchevskyi took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPrusFashchevskyiP − FBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.940.0+0.9per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPrusFashchevskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime195 / 404 vs 278 / 54748.3%50.8%195 / 404 vs 278 / 547Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.938.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FashchevskyiPrus 2.10/Fashchevskyi 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.6%
Fashchevskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Fashchevskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 17 · 24:15S. Prus—1111113I. Fashchevskyi—9840
WJul 15 · 11:55S. Prus—1381111113I. Fashchevskyi—15117672
LJul 8 · 14:55S. Prus—91111882I. Fashchevskyi—116711113
LJul 4 · 05:55S. Prus—136111232I. Fashchevskyi—1511710113
WJul 3 · 17:55S. Prus—1181612133I. Fashchevskyi—13111410112
LJun 30 · 08:55S. Prus—581171I. Fashchevskyi—11115113
LJun 29 · 16:25S. Prus—10470I. Fashchevskyi—1211113
WJun 27 · 08:55S. Prus—11811113I. Fashchevskyi—911841
LJun 18 · 06:25S. Prus—11118672I. Fashchevskyi—761111113
WJun 17 · 16:25S. Prus—1211113I. Fashchevskyi—10680
S. Prus10
WSep 6 · 10:25M. Slozka1.44814881S. Prus2.63111211113LSep 6 · 09:25S. Prus2.636940T. Gil1.441111113WSep 6 · 08:25S. Prus1.4411119113R. Bihun2.63871171WSep 6 · 06:55S. Prus1.83111120113V. Kuzmych1.83882271WSep 6 · 04:55S. Prus1.73117611113O. Sydorchuk2.0091111852LSep 5 · 17:55S. Prus2.0096140O. Hudyma1.731111163WSep 5 · 16:25S. Prus2.001111113O. Sydorchuk1.736740WSep 5 · 14:55S. Prus3.401111113I. Kvak1.306380LSep 5 · 13:25S. Prus2.25571151M. Slozka1.5711115113LSep 5 · 11:55S. Prus3.254111261I. Pytsko1.3311714113
I. Fashchevskyi10
LSep 5 · 02:45I. Fashchevskyi2.503860T. Gil1.501111113LSep 4 · 23:45I. Fashchevskyi1.9158110M. Slozka1.801111133WSep 4 · 22:45V. Kuzmych1.834930I. Fashchevskyi1.831111113WSep 4 · 21:15I. Fashchevskyi1.73111011113O. Sydorchuk2.00412991LSep 4 · 03:15Y. Tebenko1.611114113I. Fashchevskyi2.2081220LSep 4 · 01:45I. Fashchevskyi2.10811661M. Potapov1.6711811113LSep 3 · 23:45O. Budnikov1.5711911113I. Fashchevskyi2.25911541WSep 3 · 21:45O. Storozhenko1.67111181082I. Fashchevskyi2.10281112113LSep 3 · 20:45V. Korobko1.8311117113I. Fashchevskyi1.83751181WSep 2 · 10:35I. Fashchevskyi1.91711511113I. Pytsko1.8011911862
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