TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067295
Played Sep 4Finished
Yaroslav Tebenko
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1181412112––––
Ivan Fashchevskyi
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:17 and never touched — 58.5% is still 58.5%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Tebenko to win
58.5%
58.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYaroslav Tebenko above · Ivan Fashchevskyi below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 11-2
Point 58 set 3, 11-2 — our read held Yaroslav Tebenko at 58.5%
58 points played in total.
H2H Yaroslav Tebenko 19–8 Ivan Fashchevskyi Ivan Fashchevskyi has won 8 of their 27 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:17What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Tebenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-8 in 27
Tebenko
Correct
gap of 11 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tebenko 1655 vs Fashchevskyi 1437
Tebenko
Correct
both rated, 218 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tebenko 80% vs Fashchevskyi 40%
Tebenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tebenko 90% vs Fashchevskyi 40%
Tebenko
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tebenko +4 · Fashchevskyi -2
Tebenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Tebenko) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tebenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTebenko 1.61 / Fashchevskyi 2.20
Signal prob.63% / 38%
Edge (Tebenko)+4.8pp
Setka Cup · #13067295
Tebenko1.61
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 76 of 138
Up 2–0, closes it94% 30 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it76% 47 of 62
Fashchevskyi2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog48% won 87 of 182
Down 0–1, comes back28% 25 of 88
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTebenko9wins
AwayFashchevskyi1wins
4 of 10 to a deciderTebenko leads 9–1, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTebenko100%5 of 5
AwayFashchevskyi20%1 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tebenko5Fashchevskyi5n = 10split evenly
S2Tebenko7Fashchevskyi3n = 10Tebenko took 7 of 10
S3Tebenko4Fashchevskyi6n = 10Fashchevskyi took 6 of 10
S4Tebenko7Fashchevskyi2n = 9Tebenko took 7 of 9
S5Tebenko4Fashchevskyi0n = 4Tebenko took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricTebenkoFashchevskyiT − FBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match43.836.8+7.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTebenkoFashchevskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime389 / 812 vs 276 / 54347.9%50.8%389 / 812 vs 276 / 543Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TebenkoTebenko 1.61/Fashchevskyi 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.5%
Tebenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Tebenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 2 · 09:05Y. Tebenko—811116113I. Fashchevskyi—11641162
WAug 31 · 11:05Y. Tebenko—11115113I. Fashchevskyi—921171
WAug 29 · 24:45Y. Tebenko—9111011113I. Fashchevskyi—11712652
WAug 26 · 09:05Y. Tebenko—1112915113I. Fashchevskyi—514111372
WAug 25 · 15:35Y. Tebenko—11118113I. Fashchevskyi—851141
WAug 24 · 21:00Y. Tebenko—4111110113I. Fashchevskyi—11651272
WAug 20 · 21:15Y. Tebenko—12116123I. Fashchevskyi—10511101
LAug 19 · 05:35Y. Tebenko—89120I. Fashchevskyi—1111143
WAug 18 · 13:05Y. Tebenko—91111113I. Fashchevskyi—119951
WAug 15 · 02:00Y. Tebenko—12911113I. Fashchevskyi—1011591
Y. Tebenko10
LSep 6 · 02:30Y. Tebenko1.838220D. Maltsev1.831111113LSep 6 · 24:30M. Potapov1.831112113Y. Tebenko1.8361050WSep 5 · 23:30Y. Tebenko2.10116611113O. Storozhenko1.6741111972LSep 5 · 22:30V. Korobko1.831051111113Y. Tebenko1.8312117472LSep 5 · 21:00Y. Tebenko2.501011781M. Khomenko1.5012911113LSep 4 · 18:25Y. Tebenko2.1031212672O. Storozhenko1.6711101011113WSep 4 · 16:25D. Maltsev1.831012129152Y. Tebenko1.8312101011173WSep 4 · 15:25Y. Tebenko1.83111147113M. Potapov1.8366111162LSep 4 · 14:25O. Budnikov2.101211133Y. Tebenko1.67108110WSep 4 · 12:55Y. Tebenko1.919111311113I. Pytsko1.8011915862
I. Fashchevskyi10
LSep 5 · 02:45I. Fashchevskyi2.503860T. Gil1.501111113WSep 5 · 24:45S. Prus2.1011117952I. Fashchevskyi1.67971111113LSep 4 · 23:45I. Fashchevskyi1.9158110M. Slozka1.801111133WSep 4 · 22:45V. Kuzmych1.834930I. Fashchevskyi1.831111113WSep 4 · 21:15I. Fashchevskyi1.73111011113O. Sydorchuk2.00412991LSep 4 · 01:45I. Fashchevskyi2.10811661M. Potapov1.6711811113LSep 3 · 23:45O. Budnikov1.5711911113I. Fashchevskyi2.25911541WSep 3 · 21:45O. Storozhenko1.67111181082I. Fashchevskyi2.10281112113LSep 3 · 20:45V. Korobko1.8311117113I. Fashchevskyi1.83751181WSep 2 · 10:35I. Fashchevskyi1.91711511113I. Pytsko1.8011911862
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