TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13073261
Played Sep 4Finished
Denys Maltsev
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1012121012109111517
Yaroslav Tebenko
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:28 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Tebenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDenys Maltsev above · Yaroslav Tebenko below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 15-17
Point 118 set 5, 15-17 — our read held Yaroslav Tebenko at 54.0%
118 points played in total.
H2H Denys Maltsev 42–55 Yaroslav Tebenko Denys Maltsev has won 42 of their 97 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:28What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Tebenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
42-55 in 97
Tebenko
Correct
gap of 13 in 97, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maltsev 1477 vs Tebenko 1673
Tebenko
Correct
both rated, 196 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maltsev 20% vs Tebenko 80%
Tebenko
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maltsev 40% vs Tebenko 80%
Tebenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Maltsev -4 · Tebenko +1
Maltsev
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Tebenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tebenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaltsev 1.83 / Tebenko 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Tebenko)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13073261
Maltsev1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Tebenko1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMaltsev3wins
AwayTebenko7wins
8 of 10 to a deciderTebenko leads 7–3, and 8 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaltsev0%0 of 4
AwayTebenko50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maltsev4Tebenko6n = 10Tebenko took 6 of 10
S2Maltsev3Tebenko7n = 10Tebenko took 7 of 10
S3Maltsev7Tebenko3n = 10Maltsev took 7 of 10
S4Maltsev5Tebenko4n = 9Maltsev took 5 of 9
S5Maltsev2Tebenko6n = 8Tebenko took 6 of 8
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away660%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaltsevTebenkoM − TBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match42.245.9−3.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaltsevTebenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime452 / 884 vs 393 / 81851.1%48%452 / 884 vs 393 / 818Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TebenkoMaltsev 1.83/Tebenko 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Tebenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Tebenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 4 · 16:25D. Maltsev—1012129152Y. Tebenko—12101011173
LAug 31 · 08:05D. Maltsev—11811922Y. Tebenko—911611113
WAug 29 · 02:45D. Maltsev—21111113Y. Tebenko—117981
WAug 26 · 11:05D. Maltsev—611115113Y. Tebenko—11561192
LAug 25 · 14:35D. Maltsev—98111162Y. Tebenko—111189113
WAug 24 · 23:30D. Maltsev—881111113Y. Tebenko—11119882
LAug 20 · 23:45D. Maltsev—1111115102Y. Tebenko—413411123
LAug 19 · 11:05D. Maltsev—111051272Y. Tebenko—9121110113
LAug 14 · 20:30D. Maltsev—3990Y. Tebenko—1111113
LAug 12 · 11:05D. Maltsev—111031112Y. Tebenko—712116113
D. Maltsev10
WSep 6 · 02:30Y. Tebenko1.838220D. Maltsev1.831111113WSep 6 · 01:30O. Storozhenko1.73116971D. Maltsev2.0041111113WSep 6 · 24:00V. Korobko3.252540D. Maltsev1.331111113LSep 5 · 22:00M. Khomenko1.361111113113D. Maltsev3.0013881162LSep 5 · 20:00M. Potapov1.911111118113D. Maltsev1.8013971172LSep 4 · 17:55D. Maltsev1.918111091O. Budnikov1.8011712113LSep 4 · 14:55D. Maltsev2.257111191I. Pytsko1.5711313113LSep 4 · 13:25D. Maltsev1.7384111182M. Potapov2.00111179113LSep 4 · 11:55D. Maltsev1.911231181O. Storozhenko1.80101113113LSep 1 · 18:35I. Pytsko1.5711611113D. Maltsev2.25711771
Y. Tebenko10
LSep 6 · 02:30Y. Tebenko1.838220D. Maltsev1.831111113LSep 6 · 24:30M. Potapov1.831112113Y. Tebenko1.8361050WSep 5 · 23:30Y. Tebenko2.10116611113O. Storozhenko1.6741111972LSep 5 · 22:30V. Korobko1.831051111113Y. Tebenko1.8312117472LSep 5 · 21:00Y. Tebenko2.501011781M. Khomenko1.5012911113LSep 4 · 18:25Y. Tebenko2.1031212672O. Storozhenko1.6711101011113WSep 4 · 15:25Y. Tebenko1.83111147113M. Potapov1.8366111162LSep 4 · 14:25O. Budnikov2.101211133Y. Tebenko1.67108110WSep 4 · 12:55Y. Tebenko1.919111311113I. Pytsko1.8011915862WSep 4 · 03:15Y. Tebenko1.611114113I. Fashchevskyi2.2081220
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