TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13073218
Played Sep 4Finished
Oleksandr Budnikov
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
12101181311––––
Yaroslav Tebenko
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:19 and never touched — 57.4% is still 57.4%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Tebenko to win
57.4%
57.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOleksandr Budnikov above · Yaroslav Tebenko below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 13-11
Point 65 set 3, 13-11 — our read held Yaroslav Tebenko at 57.4%
65 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Budnikov 2–11 Yaroslav Tebenko Oleksandr Budnikov has won 2 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:19What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Tebenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-11 in 13
Tebenko
Wrong
gap of 9 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Budnikov 1561 vs Tebenko 1669
Tebenko
Wrong
both rated, 108 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Budnikov 60% vs Tebenko 100%
Tebenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Budnikov 60% vs Tebenko 90%
Tebenko
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Budnikov +2 · Tebenko +5
Tebenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Tebenko) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tebenko form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBudnikov 2.10 / Tebenko 1.67
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Tebenko)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13073218
Budnikov2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog39% won 51 of 132
Down 0–1, comes back21% 16 of 76
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 47
Tebenko1.67
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 78 of 140
Up 2–0, closes it94% 31 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it76% 48 of 63
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBudnikov2wins
AwayTebenko8wins
6 of 10 to a deciderTebenko leads 8–2, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBudnikov33.3%1 of 3
AwayTebenko85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Budnikov3Tebenko7n = 10Tebenko took 7 of 10
S2Budnikov4Tebenko6n = 10Tebenko took 6 of 10
S3Budnikov7Tebenko3n = 10Budnikov took 7 of 10
S4Budnikov3Tebenko5n = 8Tebenko took 5 of 8
S5Budnikov1Tebenko5n = 6Tebenko took 5 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBudnikovTebenkoB − TBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match39.442.6−3.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBudnikovTebenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime231 / 553 vs 391 / 81441.8%48%231 / 553 vs 391 / 814Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.738.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TebenkoBudnikov 2.10/Tebenko 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.2%
Tebenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Budnikov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 3 · 21:15O. Budnikov—117741Y. Tebenko—91111113
LAug 28 · 22:45O. Budnikov—61112972Y. Tebenko—1151011113
LAug 24 · 22:30O. Budnikov—12170Y. Tebenko—1411113
LAug 1 · 23:15O. Budnikov—551161Y. Tebenko—11111113
LJul 28 · 14:35O. Budnikov—811711102Y. Tebenko—119118123
LJul 27 · 22:30O. Budnikov—14911572Y. Tebenko—1211911113
LMay 12 · 21:00O. Budnikov—71111982Y. Tebenko—113811113
WFeb 12 · 06:35O. Budnikov—1111113Y. Tebenko—9750
LFeb 1 · 22:00O. Budnikov—871111112Y. Tebenko—111157133
WJan 27 · 12:05O. Budnikov—991212113Y. Tebenko—1111101072
O. Budnikov10
WSep 4 · 17:55D. Maltsev1.918111091O. Budnikov1.8011712113WSep 4 · 16:55O. Budnikov1.571111113I. Pytsko2.257950LSep 4 · 15:55O. Budnikov2.381111115112O. Storozhenko1.53471311133WSep 4 · 12:25O. Budnikov1.61111146113M. Potapov2.2077111152WSep 4 · 02:45O. Budnikov1.731111113M. Potapov2.004880LSep 4 · 24:45O. Storozhenko1.5711911113O. Budnikov2.25411721WSep 3 · 23:45O. Budnikov1.5711911113I. Fashchevskyi2.25911541LSep 3 · 22:45V. Korobko1.831111133O. Budnikov1.8368110LSep 3 · 21:15O. Budnikov2.10117741Y. Tebenko1.6791111113WAug 29 · 02:15I. Fashchevskyi2.101071961O. Budnikov1.67121117113
Y. Tebenko10
LSep 6 · 02:30Y. Tebenko1.838220D. Maltsev1.831111113LSep 6 · 24:30M. Potapov1.831112113Y. Tebenko1.8361050WSep 5 · 23:30Y. Tebenko2.10116611113O. Storozhenko1.6741111972LSep 5 · 22:30V. Korobko1.831051111113Y. Tebenko1.8312117472LSep 5 · 21:00Y. Tebenko2.501011781M. Khomenko1.5012911113LSep 4 · 18:25Y. Tebenko2.1031212672O. Storozhenko1.6711101011113WSep 4 · 16:25D. Maltsev1.831012129152Y. Tebenko1.8312101011173WSep 4 · 15:25Y. Tebenko1.83111147113M. Potapov1.8366111162WSep 4 · 12:55Y. Tebenko1.919111311113I. Pytsko1.8011915862WSep 3 · 21:15O. Budnikov2.10117741Y. Tebenko1.6791111113
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