TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13073579
Played Sep 4Finished
Yaroslav Tebenko
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
116116411711116
Mykhailo Potapov
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:38 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMykhailo Potapov to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingYaroslav Tebenko above · Mykhailo Potapov below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 84 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Mykhailo Potapov at 54.0%
84 points played in total.
H2H Yaroslav Tebenko 27–43 Mykhailo Potapov Yaroslav Tebenko has won 27 of their 70 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:38What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Potapov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
27-43 in 70
Potapov
Wrong
gap of 16 in 70, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tebenko 1651 vs Potapov 1545
Tebenko
Correct
both rated, 106 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tebenko 80% vs Potapov 60%
Tebenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tebenko 80% vs Potapov 60%
Tebenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tebenko -1 · Potapov +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Tebenko) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tebenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTebenko 1.83 / Potapov 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Tebenko)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13073579
Tebenko1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Potapov1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTebenko5wins
AwayPotapov5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTebenko83.3%5 of 6
AwayPotapov100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tebenko6Potapov4n = 10Tebenko took 6 of 10
S2Tebenko5Potapov5n = 10split evenly
S3Tebenko4Potapov6n = 10Potapov took 6 of 10
S4Tebenko3Potapov6n = 9Potapov took 6 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricTebenkoPotapovT − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.639.0−1.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTebenkoPotapovBasisWin rate · lifetime391 / 815 vs 193 / 41048%47.1%391 / 815 vs 193 / 410Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TebenkoTebenko 1.83/Potapov 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Tebenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Tebenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 3 · 22:15Y. Tebenko—1312113M. Potapov—111070
LSep 2 · 11:05Y. Tebenko—541161M. Potapov—11118113
WAug 21 · 24:45Y. Tebenko—11117113M. Potapov—991121
WAug 12 · 09:05Y. Tebenko—11712113M. Potapov—4111081
LAug 11 · 02:30Y. Tebenko—912561M. Potapov—111011113
LJul 9 · 22:45Y. Tebenko—118781M. Potapov—71111113
LMay 22 · 02:15Y. Tebenko—614871M. Potapov—111211113
WMay 5 · 07:35Y. Tebenko—111127113M. Potapov—87111162
WMar 17 · 02:00Y. Tebenko—1114911113M. Potapov—51611682
LFeb 11 · 07:25Y. Tebenko—991151M. Potapov—11117113
Y. Tebenko10
LSep 6 · 02:30Y. Tebenko1.838220D. Maltsev1.831111113LSep 6 · 24:30M. Potapov1.831112113Y. Tebenko1.8361050WSep 5 · 23:30Y. Tebenko2.10116611113O. Storozhenko1.6741111972LSep 5 · 22:30V. Korobko1.831051111113Y. Tebenko1.8312117472LSep 5 · 21:00Y. Tebenko2.501011781M. Khomenko1.5012911113LSep 4 · 18:25Y. Tebenko2.1031212672O. Storozhenko1.6711101011113WSep 4 · 16:25D. Maltsev1.831012129152Y. Tebenko1.8312101011173LSep 4 · 14:25O. Budnikov2.101211133Y. Tebenko1.67108110WSep 4 · 12:55Y. Tebenko1.919111311113I. Pytsko1.8011915862WSep 4 · 03:15Y. Tebenko1.611114113I. Fashchevskyi2.2081220
M. Potapov10
WSep 6 · 02:00M. Potapov1.221111113V. Korobko4.005970WSep 6 · 24:30M. Potapov1.831112113Y. Tebenko1.8361050LSep 5 · 23:00M. Potapov3.407790M. Khomenko1.301111113LSep 5 · 21:30M. Potapov2.25511561O. Storozhenko1.5711711113WSep 5 · 20:00M. Potapov1.911111118113D. Maltsev1.8013971172LSep 4 · 18:55I. Pytsko1.6711119113M. Potapov2.10541151WSep 4 · 17:25M. Potapov2.5013115113O. Storozhenko1.501191151WSep 4 · 13:25D. Maltsev1.7384111182M. Potapov2.00111179113LSep 4 · 12:25O. Budnikov1.61111146113M. Potapov2.2077111152LSep 4 · 02:45O. Budnikov1.731111113M. Potapov2.004880
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