TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13073422
Played Sep 4Finished
Mykhailo Potapov
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1311119511115––
Oleksandr Storozhenko
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:48 and never touched — 61.9% is still 61.9%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Storozhenko to win
61.9%
61.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMykhailo Potapov above · Oleksandr Storozhenko below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 76 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Oleksandr Storozhenko at 61.9%
76 points played in total.
H2H Mykhailo Potapov 6–16 Oleksandr Storozhenko Mykhailo Potapov has won 6 of their 22 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:48What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Storozhenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-16 in 22
Storozhenko
Wrong
gap of 10 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Potapov 1538 vs Storozhenko 1555
Storozhenko
Wrong
both rated, 17 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Potapov 40% vs Storozhenko 60%
Storozhenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Potapov 50% vs Storozhenko 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Potapov -1 · Storozhenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Storozhenko) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPotapov 2.50 / Storozhenko 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Storozhenko)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13073422
Potapov2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 43 of 102
Down 0–1, comes back16% 8 of 50
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 20
Storozhenko1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite55% won 152 of 275
Up 2–0, closes it86% 57 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it68% 97 of 142
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePotapov2wins
AwayStorozhenko8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderStorozhenko leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePotapov50%2 of 4
AwayStorozhenko100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Potapov4Storozhenko6n = 10Storozhenko took 6 of 10
S2Potapov3Storozhenko7n = 10Storozhenko took 7 of 10
S3Potapov5Storozhenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Potapov6Storozhenko4n = 10Potapov took 6 of 10
S5Potapov0Storozhenko4n = 4Storozhenko took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPotapovStorozhenkoP − SBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.743.0−1.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPotapovStorozhenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime193 / 411 vs 240 / 46247%52%193 / 411 vs 240 / 462Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StorozhenkoPotapov 2.50/Storozhenko 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.1%
Storozhenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Potapov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 3 · 20:15M. Potapov—115891O. Storozhenko—61111113
LAug 20 · 20:15M. Potapov—7101151O. Storozhenko—11126113
WAug 17 · 21:00M. Potapov—15611133O. Storozhenko—13118111
WAug 12 · 06:05M. Potapov—111511113O. Storozhenko—817741
LAug 11 · 01:30M. Potapov—77111162O. Storozhenko—111122113
LJul 31 · 13:25M. Potapov—911771O. Storozhenko—11911113
LJul 23 · 23:45M. Potapov—97131162O. Storozhenko—1111118113
LJul 10 · 01:15M. Potapov—8111411102O. Storozhenko—117167123
LJul 8 · 15:55M. Potapov—11991272O. Storozhenko—6111110113
LJul 3 · 17:25M. Potapov—1011581O. Storozhenko—12511113
M. Potapov10
WSep 6 · 02:00M. Potapov1.221111113V. Korobko4.005970WSep 6 · 24:30M. Potapov1.831112113Y. Tebenko1.8361050LSep 5 · 23:00M. Potapov3.407790M. Khomenko1.301111113LSep 5 · 21:30M. Potapov2.25511561O. Storozhenko1.5711711113WSep 5 · 20:00M. Potapov1.911111118113D. Maltsev1.8013971172LSep 4 · 18:55I. Pytsko1.6711119113M. Potapov2.10541151LSep 4 · 15:25Y. Tebenko1.83111147113M. Potapov1.8366111162WSep 4 · 13:25D. Maltsev1.7384111182M. Potapov2.00111179113LSep 4 · 12:25O. Budnikov1.61111146113M. Potapov2.2077111152LSep 4 · 02:45O. Budnikov1.731111113M. Potapov2.004880
O. Storozhenko10
WSep 6 · 03:00M. Khomenko1.408470O. Storozhenko2.751111113LSep 6 · 01:30O. Storozhenko1.73116971D. Maltsev2.0041111113LSep 5 · 23:30Y. Tebenko2.10116611113O. Storozhenko1.6741111972WSep 5 · 21:30M. Potapov2.25511561O. Storozhenko1.5711711113LSep 5 · 20:30V. Korobko1.9111511173O. Storozhenko1.807114151WSep 4 · 18:25Y. Tebenko2.1031212672O. Storozhenko1.6711101011113WSep 4 · 15:55O. Budnikov2.381111115112O. Storozhenko1.53471311133LSep 4 · 13:55I. Pytsko2.3811117153O. Storozhenko1.539711131WSep 4 · 11:55D. Maltsev1.911231181O. Storozhenko1.80101113113LSep 4 · 02:15O. Storozhenko1.8011390V. Korobko1.911311113
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