TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13073688
Played Sep 4Finished
Denys Maltsev
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811411117119811
Mykhailo Potapov
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:07 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDenys Maltsev to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingDenys Maltsev above · Mykhailo Potapov below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 91 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Denys Maltsev at 54.0%
91 points played in total.
H2H Denys Maltsev 17–16 Mykhailo Potapov Mykhailo Potapov has won 16 of their 33 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:07What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Maltsev
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-16 in 33
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maltsev 1521 vs Potapov 1535
Potapov
Correct
both rated, 14 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maltsev 60% vs Potapov 40%
Maltsev
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maltsev 40% vs Potapov 60%
Potapov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Maltsev -2 · Potapov -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Maltsev)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaltsev 1.73 / Potapov 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Maltsev)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13073688
Maltsev1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 119 of 208
Up 2–0, closes it87% 77 of 89
Up 1–0, closes it75% 95 of 127
Potapov2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 43 of 102
Down 0–1, comes back16% 8 of 50
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMaltsev7wins
AwayPotapov3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMaltsev leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaltsev100%3 of 3
AwayPotapov42.9%3 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maltsev3Potapov7n = 10Potapov took 7 of 10
S2Maltsev3Potapov7n = 10Potapov took 7 of 10
S3Maltsev8Potapov2n = 10Maltsev took 8 of 10
S4Maltsev7Potapov2n = 9Maltsev took 7 of 9
S5Maltsev3Potapov1n = 4Maltsev took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaltsevPotapovM − PBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match41.440.1+1.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaltsevPotapovBasisWin rate · lifetime452 / 881 vs 192 / 40951.3%46.9%452 / 881 vs 192 / 409Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaltsevMaltsev 1.73/Potapov 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Maltsev · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Potapov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 1 · 12:05D. Maltsev—871161M. Potapov—11119113
WAug 20 · 21:45D. Maltsev—1151410113M. Potapov—711121242
WAug 17 · 23:30D. Maltsev—71111143M. Potapov—1198121
LAug 12 · 04:35D. Maltsev—64111282M. Potapov—1111410113
LJul 31 · 11:55D. Maltsev—7790M. Potapov—1111113
WJun 27 · 09:25D. Maltsev—571111113M. Potapov—11118772
WJun 13 · 04:55D. Maltsev—11711113M. Potapov—711681
WJun 12 · 24:15D. Maltsev—141211113M. Potapov—12101361
WMay 21 · 20:15D. Maltsev—91111113M. Potapov—115791
WApr 25 · 14:25D. Maltsev—612111193M. Potapov—11147572
D. Maltsev10
WSep 6 · 02:30Y. Tebenko1.838220D. Maltsev1.831111113WSep 6 · 01:30O. Storozhenko1.73116971D. Maltsev2.0041111113WSep 6 · 24:00V. Korobko3.252540D. Maltsev1.331111113LSep 5 · 22:00M. Khomenko1.361111113113D. Maltsev3.0013881162LSep 5 · 20:00M. Potapov1.911111118113D. Maltsev1.8013971172LSep 4 · 17:55D. Maltsev1.918111091O. Budnikov1.8011712113LSep 4 · 16:25D. Maltsev1.831012129152Y. Tebenko1.8312101011173LSep 4 · 14:55D. Maltsev2.257111191I. Pytsko1.5711313113LSep 4 · 11:55D. Maltsev1.911231181O. Storozhenko1.80101113113LSep 1 · 18:35I. Pytsko1.5711611113D. Maltsev2.25711771
M. Potapov10
WSep 6 · 02:00M. Potapov1.221111113V. Korobko4.005970WSep 6 · 24:30M. Potapov1.831112113Y. Tebenko1.8361050LSep 5 · 23:00M. Potapov3.407790M. Khomenko1.301111113LSep 5 · 21:30M. Potapov2.25511561O. Storozhenko1.5711711113WSep 5 · 20:00M. Potapov1.911111118113D. Maltsev1.8013971172LSep 4 · 18:55I. Pytsko1.6711119113M. Potapov2.10541151WSep 4 · 17:25M. Potapov2.5013115113O. Storozhenko1.501191151LSep 4 · 15:25Y. Tebenko1.83111147113M. Potapov1.8366111162LSep 4 · 12:25O. Budnikov1.61111146113M. Potapov2.2077111152LSep 4 · 02:45O. Budnikov1.731111113M. Potapov2.004880
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