TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079128
Played Sep 5Finished
Mykhailo Potapov
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511117511611––
Oleksandr Storozhenko
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:19 and never touched — 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Storozhenko to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMykhailo Potapov above · Oleksandr Storozhenko below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 67 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Oleksandr Storozhenko at 60.1%
67 points played in total.
H2H Mykhailo Potapov 7–16 Oleksandr Storozhenko Mykhailo Potapov has won 7 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:19What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Storozhenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-16 in 23
Storozhenko
Correct
gap of 9 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Potapov 1540 vs Storozhenko 1544
Storozhenko
Correct
both rated, 4 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Potapov 60% vs Storozhenko 40%
Potapov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Potapov 50% vs Storozhenko 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Potapov +1 · Storozhenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Storozhenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Storozhenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPotapov 2.25 / Storozhenko 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Storozhenko)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13079128
Potapov2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 45 of 107
Down 0–1, comes back15% 8 of 53
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 23
Storozhenko1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite55% won 155 of 280
Up 2–0, closes it86% 57 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it69% 98 of 143
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePotapov3wins
AwayStorozhenko7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderStorozhenko leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePotapov60%3 of 5
AwayStorozhenko100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Potapov5Storozhenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Potapov3Storozhenko7n = 10Storozhenko took 7 of 10
S3Potapov5Storozhenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Potapov7Storozhenko3n = 10Potapov took 7 of 10
S5Potapov0Storozhenko4n = 4Storozhenko took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPotapovStorozhenkoP − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.342.7−0.4per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPotapovStorozhenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime195 / 414 vs 241 / 46547.1%51.8%195 / 414 vs 241 / 465Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StorozhenkoPotapov 2.25/Storozhenko 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Storozhenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Storozhenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 17:25M. Potapov—13115113O. Storozhenko—1191151
LSep 3 · 20:15M. Potapov—115891O. Storozhenko—61111113
LAug 20 · 20:15M. Potapov—7101151O. Storozhenko—11126113
WAug 17 · 21:00M. Potapov—15611133O. Storozhenko—13118111
WAug 12 · 06:05M. Potapov—111511113O. Storozhenko—817741
LAug 11 · 01:30M. Potapov—77111162O. Storozhenko—111122113
LJul 31 · 13:25M. Potapov—911771O. Storozhenko—11911113
LJul 23 · 23:45M. Potapov—97131162O. Storozhenko—1111118113
LJul 10 · 01:15M. Potapov—8111411102O. Storozhenko—117167123
LJul 8 · 15:55M. Potapov—11991272O. Storozhenko—6111110113
M. Potapov10
WSep 6 · 02:00M. Potapov1.221111113V. Korobko4.005970WSep 6 · 24:30M. Potapov1.831112113Y. Tebenko1.8361050LSep 5 · 23:00M. Potapov3.407790M. Khomenko1.301111113WSep 5 · 20:00M. Potapov1.911111118113D. Maltsev1.8013971172LSep 4 · 18:55I. Pytsko1.6711119113M. Potapov2.10541151WSep 4 · 17:25M. Potapov2.5013115113O. Storozhenko1.501191151LSep 4 · 15:25Y. Tebenko1.83111147113M. Potapov1.8366111162WSep 4 · 13:25D. Maltsev1.7384111182M. Potapov2.00111179113LSep 4 · 12:25O. Budnikov1.61111146113M. Potapov2.2077111152LSep 4 · 02:45O. Budnikov1.731111113M. Potapov2.004880
O. Storozhenko10
WSep 6 · 03:00M. Khomenko1.408470O. Storozhenko2.751111113LSep 6 · 01:30O. Storozhenko1.73116971D. Maltsev2.0041111113LSep 5 · 23:30Y. Tebenko2.10116611113O. Storozhenko1.6741111972LSep 5 · 20:30V. Korobko1.9111511173O. Storozhenko1.807114151WSep 4 · 18:25Y. Tebenko2.1031212672O. Storozhenko1.6711101011113LSep 4 · 17:25M. Potapov2.5013115113O. Storozhenko1.501191151WSep 4 · 15:55O. Budnikov2.381111115112O. Storozhenko1.53471311133LSep 4 · 13:55I. Pytsko2.3811117153O. Storozhenko1.539711131WSep 4 · 11:55D. Maltsev1.911231181O. Storozhenko1.80101113113LSep 4 · 02:15O. Storozhenko1.8011390V. Korobko1.911311113
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