TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13089183
Played Sep 8Finished
Ivan Fashchevskyi
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115118119––––
Mykhailo Potapov
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:20 and never touched — 56.1% is still 56.1%
Graded at full timeMykhailo Potapov to win
56.1%
56.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIvan Fashchevskyi above · Mykhailo Potapov below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 55 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Mykhailo Potapov at 56.1%
55 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Fashchevskyi 14–11 Mykhailo Potapov Mykhailo Potapov has won 11 of their 25 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 20:20What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Potapov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-11 in 25
Fashchevskyi
Correct
gap of 3 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fashchevskyi 1425 vs Potapov 1541
Potapov
Wrong
both rated, 117 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fashchevskyi 20% vs Potapov 60%
Potapov
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fashchevskyi 40% vs Potapov 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Fashchevskyi -1 · Potapov -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Potapov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fashchevskyi form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFashchevskyi 2.00 / Potapov 1.73
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Potapov)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13089183
Fashchevskyi2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog48% won 89 of 187
Down 0–1, comes back28% 26 of 93
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 44
Potapov1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 48 of 83
Up 2–0, closes it96% 25 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it85% 41 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFashchevskyi6wins
AwayPotapov4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderFashchevskyi leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFashchevskyi100%5 of 5
AwayPotapov80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fashchevskyi5Potapov5n = 10split evenly
S2Fashchevskyi4Potapov6n = 10Potapov took 6 of 10
S3Fashchevskyi7Potapov3n = 10Fashchevskyi took 7 of 10
S4Fashchevskyi4Potapov6n = 10Potapov took 6 of 10
S5Fashchevskyi3Potapov1n = 4Fashchevskyi took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricFashchevskyiPotapovF − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.640.6−2.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFashchevskyiPotapovBasisWin rate · lifetime280 / 553 vs 199 / 42250.6%47.2%280 / 553 vs 199 / 422Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.938.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PotapovFashchevskyi 2.00/Potapov 1.73
Miss
What we said
56.1%
Potapov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Fashchevskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 4 · 01:45I. Fashchevskyi—811661M. Potapov—11811113
WSep 2 · 04:35I. Fashchevskyi—116117113M. Potapov—81141162
LAug 20 · 23:15I. Fashchevskyi—571151M. Potapov—11118113
WAug 12 · 07:35I. Fashchevskyi—11311113M. Potapov—611691
WJul 31 · 14:55I. Fashchevskyi—91112123M. Potapov—11710101
WJul 25 · 04:25I. Fashchevskyi—117114113M. Potapov—71181182
LJul 24 · 13:25I. Fashchevskyi—571181M. Potapov—11116113
WJul 23 · 21:15I. Fashchevskyi—11118113M. Potapov—661191
WJul 8 · 16:55I. Fashchevskyi—117117123M. Potapov—711911102
LJul 3 · 15:55I. Fashchevskyi—51151152M. Potapov—118119113
I. Fashchevskyi10
LSep 8 · 01:15V. Korobko1.731111113I. Fashchevskyi2.007850WSep 7 · 23:15D. Maltsev1.67411971I. Fashchevskyi2.1011811113LSep 7 · 22:15I. Fashchevskyi1.91611116102I. Pytsko1.80119611123LSep 7 · 21:15O. Storozhenko1.57811811113I. Fashchevskyi2.2511711972LSep 5 · 02:45I. Fashchevskyi2.503860T. Gil1.501111113WSep 5 · 24:45S. Prus2.1011117952I. Fashchevskyi1.67971111113LSep 4 · 23:45I. Fashchevskyi1.9158110M. Slozka1.801111133WSep 4 · 22:45V. Kuzmych1.834930I. Fashchevskyi1.831111113WSep 4 · 21:15I. Fashchevskyi1.73111011113O. Sydorchuk2.00412991LSep 4 · 03:15Y. Tebenko1.611114113I. Fashchevskyi2.2081220
M. Potapov10
LSep 8 · 01:45M. Potapov2.106880I. Pytsko1.671111113WSep 7 · 23:45O. Storozhenko1.5081151182M. Potapov2.50114114113LSep 7 · 21:45D. Maltsev1.80812812113M. Potapov1.911110111092WSep 7 · 20:45V. Korobko4.3371141352M. Potapov1.201171111113WSep 6 · 02:00M. Potapov1.221111113V. Korobko4.005970WSep 6 · 24:30M. Potapov1.831112113Y. Tebenko1.8361050LSep 5 · 23:00M. Potapov3.407790M. Khomenko1.301111113LSep 5 · 21:30M. Potapov2.25511561O. Storozhenko1.5711711113WSep 5 · 20:00M. Potapov1.911111118113D. Maltsev1.8013971172LSep 4 · 18:55I. Pytsko1.6711119113M. Potapov2.10541151
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