TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13089088
Played Sep 7Finished
Denys Maltsev
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
411118911711––
Ivan Fashchevskyi
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:50 and never touched — 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeDenys Maltsev to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDenys Maltsev above · Ivan Fashchevskyi below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 72 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Denys Maltsev at 57.0%
72 points played in total.
H2H Denys Maltsev 25–25 Ivan Fashchevskyi Dead even across their 50 meetings.
Last 10 · 6–4Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:50What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Maltsev
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
25-25 in 50
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maltsev 1511 vs Fashchevskyi 1423
Maltsev
Wrong
both rated, 88 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maltsev 80% vs Fashchevskyi 20%
Maltsev
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maltsev 40% vs Fashchevskyi 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Maltsev +1 · Fashchevskyi -3
Fashchevskyi
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Maltsev)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fashchevskyi form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaltsev 1.67 / Fashchevskyi 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Maltsev)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13089088
Maltsev1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 114 of 204
Up 2–0, closes it87% 75 of 86
Up 1–0, closes it75% 92 of 123
Fashchevskyi2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog48% won 89 of 187
Down 0–1, comes back28% 26 of 93
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMaltsev6wins
AwayFashchevskyi4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderMaltsev leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaltsev100%5 of 5
AwayFashchevskyi80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maltsev5Fashchevskyi5n = 10split evenly
S2Maltsev6Fashchevskyi4n = 10Maltsev took 6 of 10
S3Maltsev6Fashchevskyi4n = 10Maltsev took 6 of 10
S4Maltsev4Fashchevskyi2n = 6Maltsev took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaltsevFashchevskyiM − FBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.834.1+1.7per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaltsevFashchevskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime448 / 877 vs 279 / 55151.1%50.6%448 / 877 vs 279 / 551Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaltsevMaltsev 1.67/Fashchevskyi 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57%
Maltsev · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Fashchevskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 31 · 10:05D. Maltsev—13611113I. Fashchevskyi—1111281
WAug 30 · 01:30D. Maltsev—11811113I. Fashchevskyi—811591
LAug 28 · 20:15D. Maltsev—81114582I. Fashchevskyi—1181211113
LAug 26 · 04:35D. Maltsev—8550I. Fashchevskyi—1111113
WAug 25 · 13:05D. Maltsev—1111113I. Fashchevskyi—3960
LAug 25 · 03:00D. Maltsev—10121581I. Fashchevskyi—121017113
WAug 21 · 03:15D. Maltsev—11118113I. Fashchevskyi—861121
WAug 19 · 06:35D. Maltsev—71111113I. Fashchevskyi—119791
WAug 14 · 21:30D. Maltsev—1111113I. Fashchevskyi—9980
LAug 12 · 06:35D. Maltsev—9650I. Fashchevskyi—1111113
D. Maltsev10
WSep 7 · 21:45D. Maltsev1.80812812113M. Potapov1.911110111092LSep 7 · 20:15D. Maltsev1.83114134172I. Pytsko1.839111111193WSep 6 · 02:30Y. Tebenko1.838220D. Maltsev1.831111113WSep 6 · 01:30O. Storozhenko1.73116971D. Maltsev2.0041111113WSep 6 · 24:00V. Korobko3.252540D. Maltsev1.331111113LSep 5 · 22:00M. Khomenko1.361111113113D. Maltsev3.0013881162LSep 5 · 20:00M. Potapov1.911111118113D. Maltsev1.8013971172LSep 4 · 17:55D. Maltsev1.918111091O. Budnikov1.8011712113LSep 4 · 16:25D. Maltsev1.831012129152Y. Tebenko1.8312101011173LSep 4 · 14:55D. Maltsev2.257111191I. Pytsko1.5711313113
I. Fashchevskyi10
LSep 7 · 22:15I. Fashchevskyi1.91611116102I. Pytsko1.80119611123LSep 7 · 21:15O. Storozhenko1.57811811113I. Fashchevskyi2.2511711972LSep 5 · 02:45I. Fashchevskyi2.503860T. Gil1.501111113WSep 5 · 24:45S. Prus2.1011117952I. Fashchevskyi1.67971111113LSep 4 · 23:45I. Fashchevskyi1.9158110M. Slozka1.801111133WSep 4 · 22:45V. Kuzmych1.834930I. Fashchevskyi1.831111113WSep 4 · 21:15I. Fashchevskyi1.73111011113O. Sydorchuk2.00412991LSep 4 · 03:15Y. Tebenko1.611114113I. Fashchevskyi2.2081220LSep 4 · 01:45I. Fashchevskyi2.10811661M. Potapov1.6711811113LSep 3 · 23:45O. Budnikov1.5711911113I. Fashchevskyi2.25911541
Upcoming Matches
D. Maltsev
Sep 8 · 24:45D. Maltsev1.83O. Storozhenko1.83—Sep 8 · 02:15D. Maltsev1.25V. Korobko3.75—Sep 8 · 13:05D. Maltsev1.91Y. Tebenko1.80—Sep 8 · 14:05D. Maltsev2.10I. Pytsko1.67—Sep 8 · 15:05D. Maltsev2.00V. Moshovskyi1.73—Sep 8 · 17:05D. Maltsev1.83M. Potapov1.83—Sep 8 · 19:05D. Maltsev1.83O. Storozhenko1.83—
I. Fashchevskyi
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