TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067620
Played Sep 4Finished
Ivan Fashchevskyi
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811118611611––
Mykhailo Potapov
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:28 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMykhailo Potapov to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightpick shipped
How it is goingIvan Fashchevskyi above · Mykhailo Potapov below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 72 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Mykhailo Potapov at 54.0%
72 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Fashchevskyi 14–10 Mykhailo Potapov Mykhailo Potapov has won 10 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:28What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Potapov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-10 in 24
Fashchevskyi
Wrong
gap of 4 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fashchevskyi 1444 vs Potapov 1587
Potapov
Correct
both rated, 143 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fashchevskyi 40% vs Potapov 60%
Potapov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fashchevskyi 40% vs Potapov 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Fashchevskyi -1 · Potapov +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Potapov) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFashchevskyi 2.10 / Potapov 1.67
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Potapov)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13067620
Fashchevskyi2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog48% won 87 of 182
Down 0–1, comes back28% 25 of 88
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 40
Potapov1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 44 of 78
Up 2–0, closes it96% 22 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it84% 37 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFashchevskyi6wins
AwayPotapov4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderFashchevskyi leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFashchevskyi100%5 of 5
AwayPotapov80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fashchevskyi5Potapov5n = 10split evenly
S2Fashchevskyi3Potapov7n = 10Potapov took 7 of 10
S3Fashchevskyi7Potapov3n = 10Fashchevskyi took 7 of 10
S4Fashchevskyi4Potapov5n = 9Potapov took 5 of 9
S5Fashchevskyi3Potapov1n = 4Fashchevskyi took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricFashchevskyiPotapovF − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.639.8−2.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFashchevskyiPotapovBasisWin rate · lifetime276 / 542 vs 191 / 40650.9%47%276 / 542 vs 191 / 406Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.038.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PotapovFashchevskyi 2.10/Potapov 1.67
Hit
What we said
58.6%
Potapov · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Potapov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 2 · 04:35I. Fashchevskyi—116117113M. Potapov—81141162
LAug 20 · 23:15I. Fashchevskyi—571151M. Potapov—11118113
WAug 12 · 07:35I. Fashchevskyi—11311113M. Potapov—611691
WJul 31 · 14:55I. Fashchevskyi—91112123M. Potapov—11710101
WJul 25 · 04:25I. Fashchevskyi—117114113M. Potapov—71181182
LJul 24 · 13:25I. Fashchevskyi—571181M. Potapov—11116113
WJul 23 · 21:15I. Fashchevskyi—11118113M. Potapov—661191
WJul 8 · 16:55I. Fashchevskyi—117117123M. Potapov—711911102
LJul 3 · 15:55I. Fashchevskyi—51151152M. Potapov—118119113
LJul 2 · 22:45I. Fashchevskyi—7590M. Potapov—1111113
I. Fashchevskyi10
LSep 5 · 02:45I. Fashchevskyi2.503860T. Gil1.501111113WSep 5 · 24:45S. Prus2.1011117952I. Fashchevskyi1.67971111113LSep 4 · 23:45I. Fashchevskyi1.9158110M. Slozka1.801111133WSep 4 · 22:45V. Kuzmych1.834930I. Fashchevskyi1.831111113WSep 4 · 21:15I. Fashchevskyi1.73111011113O. Sydorchuk2.00412991LSep 4 · 03:15Y. Tebenko1.611114113I. Fashchevskyi2.2081220LSep 3 · 23:45O. Budnikov1.5711911113I. Fashchevskyi2.25911541WSep 3 · 21:45O. Storozhenko1.67111181082I. Fashchevskyi2.10281112113LSep 3 · 20:45V. Korobko1.8311117113I. Fashchevskyi1.83751181WSep 2 · 10:35I. Fashchevskyi1.91711511113I. Pytsko1.8011911862
M. Potapov10
WSep 6 · 02:00M. Potapov1.221111113V. Korobko4.005970WSep 6 · 24:30M. Potapov1.831112113Y. Tebenko1.8361050LSep 5 · 23:00M. Potapov3.407790M. Khomenko1.301111113LSep 5 · 21:30M. Potapov2.25511561O. Storozhenko1.5711711113WSep 5 · 20:00M. Potapov1.911111118113D. Maltsev1.8013971172LSep 4 · 18:55I. Pytsko1.6711119113M. Potapov2.10541151WSep 4 · 17:25M. Potapov2.5013115113O. Storozhenko1.501191151LSep 4 · 15:25Y. Tebenko1.83111147113M. Potapov1.8366111162WSep 4 · 13:25D. Maltsev1.7384111182M. Potapov2.00111179113LSep 4 · 12:25O. Budnikov1.61111146113M. Potapov2.2077111152
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