TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079085
Played Sep 5Finished
Mykhailo Potapov
Home
3.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711711911––––
Maksym Khomenko
Away
1.30
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:08 and never touched — 75.8% is still 75.8%
Graded at full timeMaksym Khomenko to win
75.8%
75.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMykhailo Potapov above · Maksym Khomenko below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 56 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Maksym Khomenko at 75.8%
56 points played in total.
H2H Mykhailo Potapov 2–11 Maksym Khomenko Mykhailo Potapov has won 2 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:08What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Khomenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-11 in 13
Khomenko
Correct
gap of 9 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Potapov 1529 vs Khomenko 1565
Khomenko
Correct
both rated, 37 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Potapov 40% vs Khomenko 80%
Khomenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Potapov 50% vs Khomenko 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Potapov -1 · Khomenko +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 76% — Strong (leans Khomenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Potapov form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPotapov 3.40 / Khomenko 1.30
Signal prob.24% / 76%
Edge (Khomenko)+3.5pp
Setka Cup · #13079085
Potapov3.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 45 of 107
Down 0–1, comes back15% 8 of 53
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 23
Khomenko1.30
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 70 of 117
Up 2–0, closes it100% 39 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it80% 48 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePotapov1wins
AwayKhomenko9wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKhomenko leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePotapov25%1 of 4
AwayKhomenko100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Potapov4Khomenko6n = 10Khomenko took 6 of 10
S2Potapov2Khomenko8n = 10Khomenko took 8 of 10
S3Potapov5Khomenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Potapov2Khomenko6n = 8Khomenko took 6 of 8
S5Potapov0Khomenko3n = 3Khomenko took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricPotapovKhomenkoP − KBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match33.240.2−7.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPotapovKhomenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime195 / 415 vs 471 / 85647%55%195 / 415 vs 471 / 856Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.736.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KhomenkoPotapov 3.40/Khomenko 1.30
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.8%
Khomenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Khomenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 15 · 08:35M. Potapov—731131M. Khomenko—11116113
LOct 14 · 15:35M. Potapov—5680M. Khomenko—1111113
LOct 13 · 23:00M. Potapov—6860M. Khomenko—1111113
LOct 8 · 05:05M. Potapov—9101171M. Khomenko—11128113
LOct 7 · 13:05M. Potapov—118119102M. Khomenko—511511123
LOct 1 · 08:35M. Potapov—11871152M. Khomenko—611117113
WSep 30 · 16:35M. Potapov—11612113M. Khomenko—8111071
LSep 29 · 23:00M. Potapov—115881M. Khomenko—91111113
LSep 16 · 07:35M. Potapov—51111562M. Khomenko—119711113
LAug 12 · 13:05M. Potapov—411791M. Khomenko—11511113
M. Potapov10
WSep 6 · 02:00M. Potapov1.221111113V. Korobko4.005970WSep 6 · 24:30M. Potapov1.831112113Y. Tebenko1.8361050LSep 5 · 21:30M. Potapov2.25511561O. Storozhenko1.5711711113WSep 5 · 20:00M. Potapov1.911111118113D. Maltsev1.8013971172LSep 4 · 18:55I. Pytsko1.6711119113M. Potapov2.10541151WSep 4 · 17:25M. Potapov2.5013115113O. Storozhenko1.501191151LSep 4 · 15:25Y. Tebenko1.83111147113M. Potapov1.8366111162WSep 4 · 13:25D. Maltsev1.7384111182M. Potapov2.00111179113LSep 4 · 12:25O. Budnikov1.61111146113M. Potapov2.2077111152LSep 4 · 02:45O. Budnikov1.731111113M. Potapov2.004880
M. Khomenko10
WSep 7 · 06:05Y. Kolos3.258540M. Khomenko1.331111113WSep 7 · 05:05M. Khomenko1.831111113O. Rodin1.833880WSep 6 · 18:05I. Hrekh1.4415730M. Khomenko2.631711113WSep 6 · 17:05M. Khomenko2.101113113O. Rodin1.6761140WSep 6 · 16:05M. Khomenko1.80111143M. Loboda1.914210WSep 6 · 14:35M. Khomenko2.10911711113D. Shchegelskyi1.6711611542LSep 6 · 12:35M. Khomenko2.25119921Y. Vorsuliak1.5791111113LSep 6 · 03:00M. Khomenko1.408470O. Storozhenko2.751111113WSep 6 · 01:00V. Korobko2.2061060M. Khomenko1.611112113WSep 5 · 22:00M. Khomenko1.361111113113D. Maltsev3.0013881162
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