TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084256
Played Sep 6Finished
Maksym Khomenko
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911116711115114
Dmytro Shchegelskyi
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:38 and never touched — 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeDmytro Shchegelskyi to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMaksym Khomenko above · Dmytro Shchegelskyi below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 86 set 5, 11-4 — our read held Dmytro Shchegelskyi at 59.3%
86 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Khomenko 19–51 Dmytro Shchegelskyi Maksym Khomenko has won 19 of their 70 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:38What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Shchegelskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-51 in 70
Shchegelskyi
Wrong
gap of 32 in 70, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Khomenko 1548 vs Shchegelskyi 1552
Shchegelskyi
Wrong
both rated, 4 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Khomenko 60% vs Shchegelskyi 20%
Khomenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Khomenko 70% vs Shchegelskyi 30%
Khomenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Khomenko -2 · Shchegelskyi -4
Shchegelskyi
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Shchegelskyi) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Shchegelskyi form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKhomenko 2.10 / Shchegelskyi 1.67
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Shchegelskyi)-0.6pp
Setka Cup · #13084256
Khomenko2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 67 of 155
Down 0–1, comes back30% 30 of 99
Down 0–2, comes back15% 10 of 66
Shchegelskyi1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite58% won 108 of 186
Up 2–0, closes it98% 39 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it76% 68 of 90
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKhomenko3wins
AwayShchegelskyi7wins
6 of 10 to a deciderShchegelskyi leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKhomenko25%1 of 4
AwayShchegelskyi66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Khomenko4Shchegelskyi6n = 10Shchegelskyi took 6 of 10
S2Khomenko5Shchegelskyi5n = 10split evenly
S3Khomenko6Shchegelskyi4n = 10Khomenko took 6 of 10
S4Khomenko3Shchegelskyi7n = 10Shchegelskyi took 7 of 10
S5Khomenko2Shchegelskyi4n = 6Shchegelskyi took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKhomenkoShchegelskyiK − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match43.347.4−4.1per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKhomenkoShchegelskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime472 / 859 vs 474 / 89655%52.9%472 / 859 vs 474 / 896Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.539.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ShchegelskyiKhomenko 2.10/Shchegelskyi 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.2%
Shchegelskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Khomenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 30 · 14:35M. Khomenko—811914103D. Shchegelskyi—113111282
LAug 2 · 17:05M. Khomenko—111612111D. Shchegelskyi—131810133
LAug 2 · 01:00M. Khomenko—116681D. Shchegelskyi—91111113
LJul 25 · 22:30M. Khomenko—11211792D. Shchegelskyi—711711113
LJul 19 · 01:00M. Khomenko—791341D. Shchegelskyi—111111113
WJul 12 · 17:05M. Khomenko—1110911113D. Shchegelskyi—91211992
LJul 12 · 24:00M. Khomenko—81111742D. Shchegelskyi—119811113
LJun 14 · 02:00M. Khomenko—11117682D. Shchegelskyi—981111113
WJun 1 · 09:35M. Khomenko—81511113D. Shchegelskyi—1113761
LMay 31 · 14:35M. Khomenko—711134112D. Shchegelskyi—1191111133
M. Khomenko10
WSep 7 · 09:44M. Khomenko1.281111113Y. Kolos3.505630LSep 7 · 08:05D. Shchegelskyi1.571381111113M. Khomenko2.2515115982LSep 7 · 07:05M. Khomenko2.389670Y. Vorsuliak1.531111113WSep 7 · 06:05Y. Kolos3.258540M. Khomenko1.331111113WSep 7 · 05:05M. Khomenko1.831111113O. Rodin1.833880WSep 6 · 18:05I. Hrekh1.4415730M. Khomenko2.631711113WSep 6 · 17:05M. Khomenko2.101113113O. Rodin1.6761140WSep 6 · 16:05M. Khomenko1.80111143M. Loboda1.914210LSep 6 · 12:35M. Khomenko2.25119921Y. Vorsuliak1.5791111113LSep 6 · 03:00M. Khomenko1.408470O. Storozhenko2.751111113
D. Shchegelskyi10
WSep 7 · 09:05D. Shchegelskyi1.8312311153Y. Kolos1.8310118131WSep 7 · 08:05D. Shchegelskyi1.571381111113M. Khomenko2.2515115982WSep 7 · 06:35D. Shchegelskyi1.73117112153O. Rodin2.00811911132LSep 7 · 05:35D. Shchegelskyi2.201011111582Y. Vorsuliak1.61125917113LSep 6 · 18:35D. Shchegelskyi2.109970M. Loboda1.671111113LSep 6 · 16:35I. Hrekh1.611111103D. Shchegelskyi2.208780LSep 6 · 15:35D. Shchegelskyi2.20135221Y. Vorsuliak1.61111111113LSep 6 · 13:05D. Shchegelskyi1.73631181O. Rodin2.001111793LSep 4 · 11:05D. Shchegelskyi2.63121411102V. Slozka1.441011117123LSep 4 · 09:05I. Hrekh1.67111213113D. Shchegelskyi2.106101581
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