TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13072875
Played Sep 4Finished
Iurii Hrekh
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11612101315118––
Dmytro Shchegelskyi
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:28 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeIurii Hrekh to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIurii Hrekh above · Dmytro Shchegelskyi below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 13-15
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 86 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Iurii Hrekh at 58.9%
86 points played in total.
H2H Iurii Hrekh 16–10 Dmytro Shchegelskyi Dmytro Shchegelskyi has won 10 of their 26 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:28What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Hrekh
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-10 in 26
Hrekh
Correct
gap of 6 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hrekh 1645 vs Shchegelskyi 1582
Hrekh
Correct
both rated, 63 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hrekh 40% vs Shchegelskyi 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hrekh 30% vs Shchegelskyi 60%
Shchegelskyi
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hrekh -3 · Shchegelskyi -1
Hrekh
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Hrekh) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hrekh form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHrekh 1.67 / Shchegelskyi 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Hrekh)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13072875
Hrekh1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 168 of 294
Up 2–0, closes it96% 93 of 97
Up 1–0, closes it78% 130 of 167
Shchegelskyi2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 65 of 157
Down 0–1, comes back25% 24 of 97
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHrekh5wins
AwayShchegelskyi5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHrekh71.4%5 of 7
AwayShchegelskyi100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hrekh7Shchegelskyi3n = 10Hrekh took 7 of 10
S2Hrekh6Shchegelskyi4n = 10Hrekh took 6 of 10
S3Hrekh1Shchegelskyi9n = 10Shchegelskyi took 9 of 10
S4Hrekh6Shchegelskyi2n = 8Hrekh took 6 of 8
S5Hrekh1Shchegelskyi3n = 4Shchegelskyi took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricHrekhShchegelskyiH − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match42.141.0+1.1per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHrekhShchegelskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime257 / 501 vs 474 / 89451.3%53%257 / 501 vs 474 / 894Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.539.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HrekhHrekh 1.67/Shchegelskyi 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57%
Hrekh · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Hrekh won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 3 · 16:35I. Hrekh—1111129133D. Shchegelskyi—381411112
LSep 3 · 24:30I. Hrekh—13770D. Shchegelskyi—1511113
WAug 28 · 07:35I. Hrekh—11115113D. Shchegelskyi—791191
LAug 27 · 16:35I. Hrekh—8880D. Shchegelskyi—1111113
WAug 27 · 24:30I. Hrekh—14118113D. Shchegelskyi—1251181
WAug 23 · 20:45I. Hrekh—12117133D. Shchegelskyi—10711111
WAug 21 · 07:35I. Hrekh—11138113D. Shchegelskyi—8111131
LAug 17 · 24:45I. Hrekh—81131292D. Shchegelskyi—1131110113
LAug 14 · 07:35I. Hrekh—1191110112D. Shchegelskyi—711912133
LAug 12 · 22:00I. Hrekh—1111811102D. Shchegelskyi—813117123
I. Hrekh10
LSep 6 · 18:05I. Hrekh1.4415730M. Khomenko2.631711113WSep 6 · 16:35I. Hrekh1.611111103D. Shchegelskyi2.208780WSep 6 · 15:05I. Hrekh1.611111113O. Rodin2.206340WSep 6 · 13:35I. Hrekh1.501111113Y. Vorsuliak2.508480WSep 6 · 12:05I. Hrekh2.2011616113M. Loboda1.617111451LSep 4 · 10:35I. Hrekh2.201291191M. Loboda1.6114115113LSep 4 · 07:35I. Hrekh1.50114131072Y. Vorsuliak2.507111112113LSep 4 · 06:05I. Hrekh1.8071180A. Romanenko1.911113113LSep 4 · 04:35I. Hrekh1.67811581V. Slozka2.1011711113WSep 3 · 18:05I. Hrekh2.2571211113M. Loboda1.571110571
D. Shchegelskyi10
WSep 7 · 06:35D. Shchegelskyi1.73117112153O. Rodin2.00811911132LSep 7 · 05:35D. Shchegelskyi2.201011111582Y. Vorsuliak1.61125917113LSep 6 · 18:35D. Shchegelskyi2.109970M. Loboda1.671111113LSep 6 · 16:35I. Hrekh1.611111103D. Shchegelskyi2.208780LSep 6 · 15:35D. Shchegelskyi2.20135221Y. Vorsuliak1.61111111113LSep 6 · 14:35M. Khomenko2.10911711113D. Shchegelskyi1.6711611542LSep 6 · 13:05D. Shchegelskyi1.73631181O. Rodin2.001111793LSep 4 · 11:05D. Shchegelskyi2.63121411102V. Slozka1.441011117123LSep 4 · 08:05D. Shchegelskyi2.2091181232A. Romanenko1.611151110113WSep 4 · 07:05M. Loboda1.67111111892D. Shchegelskyi2.10591311113
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