TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13089005
Played Sep 7Finished
Dmytro Shchegelskyi
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 8Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 8
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
10121151191517811
Yaroslav Vorsuliak
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:46 and never touched — 60.9% is still 60.9%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Vorsuliak to win
60.9%
60.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightpick shipped
How it is goingDmytro Shchegelskyi above · Yaroslav Vorsuliak below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 15-17
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 109 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Yaroslav Vorsuliak at 60.9%
109 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Shchegelskyi 37–45 Yaroslav Vorsuliak Dmytro Shchegelskyi has won 37 of their 82 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 14h before this match
Vorsuliak beat Shchegelskyi 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:46What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Vorsuliak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
37-45 in 82
Vorsuliak
Correct
gap of 8 in 82, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shchegelskyi 1487 vs Vorsuliak 1617
Vorsuliak
Correct
both rated, 130 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shchegelskyi 0% vs Vorsuliak 60%
Vorsuliak
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shchegelskyi 10% vs Vorsuliak 60%
Vorsuliak
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Shchegelskyi -5 · Vorsuliak +2
Shchegelskyi
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Vorsuliak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Shchegelskyi form (0%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShchegelskyi 2.20 / Vorsuliak 1.61
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Vorsuliak)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13089005
Shchegelskyi2.20
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 8
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog40% won 65 of 164
Down 0–1, comes back24% 25 of 103
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 58
Vorsuliak1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 100 of 166
Up 2–0, closes it91% 42 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it79% 70 of 89
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShchegelskyi2wins
AwayVorsuliak8wins
1 of 10 to a deciderVorsuliak leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShchegelskyi33.3%1 of 3
AwayVorsuliak85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shchegelskyi3Vorsuliak7n = 10Vorsuliak took 7 of 10
S2Shchegelskyi2Vorsuliak8n = 10Vorsuliak took 8 of 10
S3Shchegelskyi4Vorsuliak6n = 10Vorsuliak took 6 of 10
S4Shchegelskyi1Vorsuliak6n = 7Vorsuliak took 6 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricShchegelskyiVorsuliakS − VBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match30.640.7−10.1per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShchegelskyiVorsuliakBasisWin rate · lifetime474 / 900 vs 449 / 89152.7%50.4%474 / 900 vs 449 / 891Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.138.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VorsuliakShchegelskyi 2.20/Vorsuliak 1.61
Hit
What we said
60.9%
Vorsuliak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Vorsuliak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 15:35D. Shchegelskyi—135221Y. Vorsuliak—111111113
LSep 4 · 05:35D. Shchegelskyi—4470Y. Vorsuliak—1111113
WSep 3 · 18:35D. Shchegelskyi—411113123Y. Vorsuliak—117711102
WSep 3 · 02:30D. Shchegelskyi—13717133Y. Vorsuliak—111115111
LAug 30 · 16:35D. Shchegelskyi—10101171Y. Vorsuliak—12128113
LAug 28 · 11:35D. Shchegelskyi—8670Y. Vorsuliak—1111113
LAug 27 · 15:35D. Shchegelskyi—74100Y. Vorsuliak—1111123
LAug 26 · 23:30D. Shchegelskyi—4111081Y. Vorsuliak—11712113
LAug 10 · 23:45D. Shchegelskyi—1176111Y. Vorsuliak—81111133
LAug 10 · 02:45D. Shchegelskyi—381181Y. Vorsuliak—11119113
D. Shchegelskyi10
LSep 6 · 18:35D. Shchegelskyi2.109970M. Loboda1.671111113LSep 6 · 16:35I. Hrekh1.611111103D. Shchegelskyi2.208780LSep 6 · 15:35D. Shchegelskyi2.20135221Y. Vorsuliak1.61111111113LSep 6 · 14:35M. Khomenko2.10911711113D. Shchegelskyi1.6711611542LSep 6 · 13:05D. Shchegelskyi1.73631181O. Rodin2.001111793LSep 4 · 11:05D. Shchegelskyi2.63121411102V. Slozka1.441011117123LSep 4 · 09:05I. Hrekh1.67111213113D. Shchegelskyi2.106101581LSep 4 · 08:05D. Shchegelskyi2.2091181232A. Romanenko1.611151110113WSep 4 · 07:05M. Loboda1.67111111892D. Shchegelskyi2.10591311113LSep 4 · 05:35D. Shchegelskyi2.104470Y. Vorsuliak1.671111113
Y. Vorsuliak10
WSep 7 · 04:35Y. Kolos2.1091113842Y. Vorsuliak1.671191111113WSep 6 · 19:05O. Rodin1.839560Y. Vorsuliak1.831111103LSep 6 · 17:35Y. Vorsuliak2.6311611882M. Loboda1.44811311113WSep 6 · 15:35D. Shchegelskyi2.20135221Y. Vorsuliak1.61111111113LSep 6 · 13:35I. Hrekh1.501111113Y. Vorsuliak2.508480WSep 6 · 12:35M. Khomenko2.25119921Y. Vorsuliak1.5791111113WSep 4 · 11:35Y. Vorsuliak2.3812118113A. Romanenko1.531091171LSep 4 · 09:35M. Loboda1.44111411133Y. Vorsuliak2.637166111WSep 4 · 07:35I. Hrekh1.50114131072Y. Vorsuliak2.507111112113WSep 4 · 05:35D. Shchegelskyi2.104470Y. Vorsuliak1.671111113
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