TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084331
Played Sep 6Finished
Maksym Khomenko
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119911911211––
Yaroslav Vorsuliak
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:58 and never touched — 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Vorsuliak to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMaksym Khomenko above · Yaroslav Vorsuliak below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 2-11
Point 73 set 4, 2-11 — our read held Yaroslav Vorsuliak at 60.1%
73 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Khomenko 28–40 Yaroslav Vorsuliak Maksym Khomenko has won 28 of their 68 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:58What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Vorsuliak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
28-40 in 68
Vorsuliak
Correct
gap of 12 in 68, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Khomenko 1558 vs Vorsuliak 1612
Vorsuliak
Correct
both rated, 54 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Khomenko 80% vs Vorsuliak 60%
Khomenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Khomenko 70% vs Vorsuliak 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Khomenko -1 · Vorsuliak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Vorsuliak) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Khomenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKhomenko 2.25 / Vorsuliak 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Vorsuliak)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13084331
Khomenko2.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 67 of 155
Down 0–1, comes back30% 30 of 99
Down 0–2, comes back15% 10 of 66
Vorsuliak1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite60% won 98 of 164
Up 2–0, closes it91% 42 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it79% 70 of 89
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKhomenko3wins
AwayVorsuliak7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderVorsuliak leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKhomenko66.7%2 of 3
AwayVorsuliak85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Khomenko3Vorsuliak7n = 10Vorsuliak took 7 of 10
S2Khomenko3Vorsuliak7n = 10Vorsuliak took 7 of 10
S3Khomenko4Vorsuliak6n = 10Vorsuliak took 6 of 10
S4Khomenko2Vorsuliak2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricKhomenkoVorsuliakK − VBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match31.635.9−4.3per matchSweeps24−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKhomenkoVorsuliakBasisWin rate · lifetime473 / 859 vs 448 / 89055.1%50.3%473 / 859 vs 448 / 890Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.638.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VorsuliakKhomenko 2.25/Vorsuliak 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.3%
Vorsuliak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Vorsuliak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 24 · 08:35M. Khomenko—81491162Y. Vorsuliak—1112116113
LAug 23 · 16:35M. Khomenko—7660Y. Vorsuliak—1111113
LAug 22 · 20:30M. Khomenko—9890Y. Vorsuliak—1111113
WAug 17 · 07:05M. Khomenko—3121111113Y. Vorsuliak—11144982
LAug 16 · 12:05M. Khomenko—612110Y. Vorsuliak—1114133
LAug 15 · 20:30M. Khomenko—391141Y. Vorsuliak—11119113
WAug 8 · 22:30M. Khomenko—1111113Y. Vorsuliak—6630
LJul 18 · 20:30M. Khomenko—119441Y. Vorsuliak—71111113
WJul 12 · 16:05M. Khomenko—1111113Y. Vorsuliak—7890
LJun 29 · 05:05M. Khomenko—123100Y. Vorsuliak—1411123
M. Khomenko10
WSep 7 · 06:05Y. Kolos3.258540M. Khomenko1.331111113WSep 7 · 05:05M. Khomenko1.831111113O. Rodin1.833880WSep 6 · 18:05I. Hrekh1.4415730M. Khomenko2.631711113WSep 6 · 17:05M. Khomenko2.101113113O. Rodin1.6761140WSep 6 · 16:05M. Khomenko1.80111143M. Loboda1.914210WSep 6 · 14:35M. Khomenko2.10911711113D. Shchegelskyi1.6711611542LSep 6 · 03:00M. Khomenko1.408470O. Storozhenko2.751111113WSep 6 · 01:00V. Korobko2.2061060M. Khomenko1.611112113WSep 5 · 23:00M. Potapov3.407790M. Khomenko1.301111113WSep 5 · 22:00M. Khomenko1.361111113113D. Maltsev3.0013881162
Y. Vorsuliak10
WSep 7 · 05:35D. Shchegelskyi2.201011111582Y. Vorsuliak1.61125917113WSep 7 · 04:35Y. Kolos2.1091113842Y. Vorsuliak1.671191111113WSep 6 · 19:05O. Rodin1.839560Y. Vorsuliak1.831111103LSep 6 · 17:35Y. Vorsuliak2.6311611882M. Loboda1.44811311113WSep 6 · 15:35D. Shchegelskyi2.20135221Y. Vorsuliak1.61111111113LSep 6 · 13:35I. Hrekh1.501111113Y. Vorsuliak2.508480WSep 4 · 11:35Y. Vorsuliak2.3812118113A. Romanenko1.531091171LSep 4 · 09:35M. Loboda1.44111411133Y. Vorsuliak2.637166111WSep 4 · 07:35I. Hrekh1.50114131072Y. Vorsuliak2.507111112113LSep 4 · 06:35Y. Vorsuliak2.63131312392V. Slozka1.4415111011113
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