TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084405
Played Sep 6Finished
Maksym Khomenko
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1161311114––––
Oleksii Rodin
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:19 and never touched — 56.6% is still 56.6%
Graded at full timeOleksii Rodin to win
56.6%
56.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMaksym Khomenko above · Oleksii Rodin below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Point 56 set 3, 11-4 — our read held Oleksii Rodin at 56.6%
56 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Khomenko 6–9 Oleksii Rodin Maksym Khomenko has won 6 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:19What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Rodin
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-9 in 15
Rodin
Wrong
gap of 3 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Khomenko 1648 vs Rodin 1551
Khomenko
Correct
both rated, 97 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Khomenko 60% vs Rodin 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Khomenko 70% vs Rodin 50%
Khomenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Khomenko +2 · Rodin -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Rodin) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Khomenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKhomenko 2.10 / Rodin 1.67
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Rodin)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13084405
Khomenko2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 67 of 155
Down 0–1, comes back30% 30 of 99
Down 0–2, comes back15% 10 of 66
Rodin1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite62% won 141 of 226
Up 2–0, closes it96% 69 of 72
Up 1–0, closes it79% 96 of 121
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKhomenko3wins
AwayRodin7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderRodin leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKhomenko60%3 of 5
AwayRodin100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Khomenko5Rodin5n = 10split evenly
S2Khomenko3Rodin7n = 10Rodin took 7 of 10
S3Khomenko7Rodin3n = 10Khomenko took 7 of 10
S4Khomenko5Rodin2n = 7Khomenko took 5 of 7
S5Khomenko0Rodin5n = 5Rodin took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKhomenkoRodinK − RBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.539.0−1.5per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKhomenkoRodinBasisWin rate · lifetime474 / 860 vs 172 / 29155.1%59.1%474 / 860 vs 172 / 291Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.538.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RodinKhomenko 2.10/Rodin 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Rodin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Khomenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 17:05M. Khomenko—1113113O. Rodin—61140
LAug 30 · 16:05M. Khomenko—69111162O. Rodin—11115883
LAug 24 · 05:05M. Khomenko—6880O. Rodin—1111113
LAug 23 · 17:05M. Khomenko—116137122O. Rodin—5111111143
LAug 23 · 15:05M. Khomenko—511611132O. Rodin—118117153
LAug 23 · 01:00M. Khomenko—11951142O. Rodin—611113113
WAug 17 · 05:05M. Khomenko—13511113O. Rodin—1111991
LAug 16 · 17:29M. Khomenko—84111162O. Rodin—111177113
WAug 16 · 15:05M. Khomenko—1111113O. Rodin—8560
LAug 16 · 24:00M. Khomenko—551161O. Rodin—11118113
M. Khomenko10
WSep 7 · 06:05Y. Kolos3.258540M. Khomenko1.331111113WSep 7 · 05:05M. Khomenko1.831111113O. Rodin1.833880WSep 6 · 18:05I. Hrekh1.4415730M. Khomenko2.631711113WSep 6 · 16:05M. Khomenko1.80111143M. Loboda1.914210WSep 6 · 14:35M. Khomenko2.10911711113D. Shchegelskyi1.6711611542LSep 6 · 12:35M. Khomenko2.25119921Y. Vorsuliak1.5791111113LSep 6 · 03:00M. Khomenko1.408470O. Storozhenko2.751111113WSep 6 · 01:00V. Korobko2.2061060M. Khomenko1.611112113WSep 5 · 23:00M. Potapov3.407790M. Khomenko1.301111113WSep 5 · 22:00M. Khomenko1.361111113113D. Maltsev3.0013881162
O. Rodin10
LSep 7 · 06:35D. Shchegelskyi1.73117112153O. Rodin2.00811911132LSep 7 · 05:05M. Khomenko1.831111113O. Rodin1.833880LSep 6 · 19:05O. Rodin1.839560Y. Vorsuliak1.831111103LSep 6 · 15:05I. Hrekh1.611111113O. Rodin2.206340WSep 6 · 14:05O. Rodin2.38111111113M. Loboda1.53138571WSep 6 · 13:05D. Shchegelskyi1.73631181O. Rodin2.001111793WSep 3 · 19:05O. Rodin2.1011116113A. Romanenko1.67661161LSep 3 · 17:05M. Loboda1.5321411113O. Rodin2.381112631WSep 3 · 15:05I. Hrekh1.4413441182O. Rodin2.631111119113LSep 3 · 14:05O. Rodin1.8011119862Y. Vorsuliak1.91371111113
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