TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084390
Played Sep 6Finished
Dmytro Shchegelskyi
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
61131111789––
Oleksii Rodin
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:19 and never touched — 55.3% is still 55.3%
Graded at full timeDmytro Shchegelskyi to win
55.3%
55.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingDmytro Shchegelskyi above · Oleksii Rodin below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 8-9
Point 66 set 4, 8-9 — our read held Dmytro Shchegelskyi at 55.3%
66 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Shchegelskyi 7–1 Oleksii Rodin Oleksii Rodin has won 1 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:19What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Shchegelskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-1 in 8
Shchegelskyi
Wrong
gap of 6 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shchegelskyi 1574 vs Rodin 1577
Rodin
Correct
both rated, 3 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shchegelskyi 20% vs Rodin 40%
Rodin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shchegelskyi 40% vs Rodin 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Shchegelskyi -3 · Rodin +1
Shchegelskyi
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Shchegelskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Shchegelskyi form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShchegelskyi 1.73 / Rodin 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Shchegelskyi)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13084390
Shchegelskyi1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite58% won 108 of 186
Up 2–0, closes it98% 39 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it76% 68 of 90
Rodin2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog50% won 28 of 56
Down 0–1, comes back24% 5 of 21
Down 0–2, comes back9% 1 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeShchegelskyi7wins
AwayRodin1wins
5 of 8 to a deciderShchegelskyi leads 7–1, and 5 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShchegelskyi100%4 of 4
AwayRodin25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shchegelskyi4Rodin4n = 8split evenly
S2Shchegelskyi5Rodin3n = 8Shchegelskyi took 5 of 8
S3Shchegelskyi7Rodin1n = 8Shchegelskyi took 7 of 8
S4Shchegelskyi3Rodin4n = 7Rodin took 4 of 7
S5Shchegelskyi4Rodin1n = 5Shchegelskyi took 4 of 5
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home450%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricShchegelskyiRodinS − RBasisWins71+6in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match44.241.1+3.1per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShchegelskyiRodinBasisWin rate · lifetime474 / 895 vs 170 / 28653%59.4%474 / 895 vs 170 / 286Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.238.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ShchegelskyiShchegelskyi 1.73/Rodin 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.3%
Shchegelskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Rodin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 3 · 13:05D. Shchegelskyi—6111115113O. Rodin—11881782
WAug 30 · 18:35D. Shchegelskyi—41111113O. Rodin—118661
WAug 28 · 06:35D. Shchegelskyi—11711113O. Rodin—611981
WAug 27 · 18:35D. Shchegelskyi—114912113O. Rodin—911111092
WAug 27 · 02:30D. Shchegelskyi—1161111113O. Rodin—91171382
WAug 3 · 08:35D. Shchegelskyi—1111123O. Rodin—65100
LAug 2 · 14:05D. Shchegelskyi—61111792O. Rodin—118411113
WAug 2 · 03:00D. Shchegelskyi—611119113O. Rodin—11891192
D. Shchegelskyi10
WSep 7 · 06:35D. Shchegelskyi1.73117112153O. Rodin2.00811911132LSep 7 · 05:35D. Shchegelskyi2.201011111582Y. Vorsuliak1.61125917113LSep 6 · 18:35D. Shchegelskyi2.109970M. Loboda1.671111113LSep 6 · 16:35I. Hrekh1.611111103D. Shchegelskyi2.208780LSep 6 · 15:35D. Shchegelskyi2.20135221Y. Vorsuliak1.61111111113LSep 6 · 14:35M. Khomenko2.10911711113D. Shchegelskyi1.6711611542LSep 4 · 11:05D. Shchegelskyi2.63121411102V. Slozka1.441011117123LSep 4 · 09:05I. Hrekh1.67111213113D. Shchegelskyi2.106101581LSep 4 · 08:05D. Shchegelskyi2.2091181232A. Romanenko1.611151110113WSep 4 · 07:05M. Loboda1.67111111892D. Shchegelskyi2.10591311113
O. Rodin10
LSep 7 · 06:35D. Shchegelskyi1.73117112153O. Rodin2.00811911132LSep 7 · 05:05M. Khomenko1.831111113O. Rodin1.833880LSep 6 · 19:05O. Rodin1.839560Y. Vorsuliak1.831111103LSep 6 · 17:05M. Khomenko2.101113113O. Rodin1.6761140LSep 6 · 15:05I. Hrekh1.611111113O. Rodin2.206340WSep 6 · 14:05O. Rodin2.38111111113M. Loboda1.53138571WSep 3 · 19:05O. Rodin2.1011116113A. Romanenko1.67661161LSep 3 · 17:05M. Loboda1.5321411113O. Rodin2.381112631WSep 3 · 15:05I. Hrekh1.4413441182O. Rodin2.631111119113LSep 3 · 14:05O. Rodin1.8011119862Y. Vorsuliak1.91371111113
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