TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084179
Played Sep 6Finished
Iurii Hrekh
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118114118––––
Yaroslav Vorsuliak
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:20 and never touched — 61.2% is still 61.2%
Graded at full timeIurii Hrekh to win
61.2%
61.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIurii Hrekh above · Yaroslav Vorsuliak below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 53 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Iurii Hrekh at 61.2%
53 points played in total.
H2H Iurii Hrekh 19–12 Yaroslav Vorsuliak Yaroslav Vorsuliak has won 12 of their 31 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:20What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Hrekh
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-12 in 31
Hrekh
Correct
gap of 7 in 31, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hrekh 1647 vs Vorsuliak 1622
Hrekh
Correct
both rated, 25 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hrekh 40% vs Vorsuliak 60%
Vorsuliak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hrekh 40% vs Vorsuliak 60%
Vorsuliak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hrekh +1 · Vorsuliak +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Hrekh) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vorsuliak form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHrekh 1.50 / Vorsuliak 2.50
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Hrekh)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13084179
Hrekh1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 169 of 298
Up 2–0, closes it96% 94 of 98
Up 1–0, closes it78% 131 of 169
Vorsuliak2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog43% won 106 of 249
Down 0–1, comes back23% 30 of 131
Down 0–2, comes back8% 6 of 74
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHrekh7wins
AwayVorsuliak3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderHrekh leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHrekh75%6 of 8
AwayVorsuliakn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hrekh8Vorsuliak2n = 10Hrekh took 8 of 10
S2Hrekh6Vorsuliak4n = 10Hrekh took 6 of 10
S3Hrekh5Vorsuliak5n = 10split evenly
S4Hrekh5Vorsuliak2n = 7Hrekh took 5 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricHrekhVorsuliakH − VBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match36.533.8+2.7per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHrekhVorsuliakBasisWin rate · lifetime258 / 503 vs 449 / 89151.3%50.4%258 / 503 vs 449 / 891Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.538.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HrekhHrekh 1.50/Vorsuliak 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.9%
Hrekh · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Hrekh won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 4 · 07:35I. Hrekh—114131072Y. Vorsuliak—7111112113
LSep 3 · 12:05I. Hrekh—118551Y. Vorsuliak—61111113
WSep 2 · 20:00I. Hrekh—13119113Y. Vorsuliak—1161171
LAug 28 · 06:05I. Hrekh—5560Y. Vorsuliak—1111113
WAug 27 · 13:35I. Hrekh—11511113Y. Vorsuliak—911251
WAug 26 · 21:30I. Hrekh—1211113Y. Vorsuliak—10460
WAug 13 · 13:35I. Hrekh—11114113Y. Vorsuliak—761161
WAug 10 · 21:45I. Hrekh—13119113Y. Vorsuliak—1161191
WAug 9 · 20:15I. Hrekh—1112143Y. Vorsuliak—610120
WJul 31 · 06:05I. Hrekh—71112113Y. Vorsuliak—1181081
I. Hrekh10
LSep 6 · 18:05I. Hrekh1.4415730M. Khomenko2.631711113WSep 6 · 16:35I. Hrekh1.611111103D. Shchegelskyi2.208780WSep 6 · 15:05I. Hrekh1.611111113O. Rodin2.206340WSep 6 · 12:05I. Hrekh2.2011616113M. Loboda1.617111451LSep 4 · 10:35I. Hrekh2.201291191M. Loboda1.6114115113WSep 4 · 09:05I. Hrekh1.67111213113D. Shchegelskyi2.106101581LSep 4 · 07:35I. Hrekh1.50114131072Y. Vorsuliak2.507111112113LSep 4 · 06:05I. Hrekh1.8071180A. Romanenko1.911113113LSep 4 · 04:35I. Hrekh1.67811581V. Slozka2.1011711113WSep 3 · 18:05I. Hrekh2.2571211113M. Loboda1.571110571
Y. Vorsuliak10
WSep 7 · 05:35D. Shchegelskyi2.201011111582Y. Vorsuliak1.61125917113WSep 7 · 04:35Y. Kolos2.1091113842Y. Vorsuliak1.671191111113WSep 6 · 19:05O. Rodin1.839560Y. Vorsuliak1.831111103LSep 6 · 17:35Y. Vorsuliak2.6311611882M. Loboda1.44811311113WSep 6 · 15:35D. Shchegelskyi2.20135221Y. Vorsuliak1.61111111113WSep 6 · 12:35M. Khomenko2.25119921Y. Vorsuliak1.5791111113WSep 4 · 11:35Y. Vorsuliak2.3812118113A. Romanenko1.531091171LSep 4 · 09:35M. Loboda1.44111411133Y. Vorsuliak2.637166111WSep 4 · 07:35I. Hrekh1.50114131072Y. Vorsuliak2.507111112113LSep 4 · 06:35Y. Vorsuliak2.63131312392V. Slozka1.4415111011113
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