TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13072982
Played Sep 4Finished
Dmytro Shchegelskyi
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
411411711––––
Yaroslav Vorsuliak
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:51 and never touched — 57.4% is still 57.4%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Vorsuliak to win
57.4%
57.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightpick shipped
How it is goingDmytro Shchegelskyi above · Yaroslav Vorsuliak below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 48 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Yaroslav Vorsuliak at 57.4%
48 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Shchegelskyi 35–43 Yaroslav Vorsuliak Dmytro Shchegelskyi has won 35 of their 78 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:51What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Vorsuliak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
35-43 in 78
Vorsuliak
Correct
gap of 8 in 78, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shchegelskyi 1592 vs Vorsuliak 1600
Vorsuliak
Correct
both rated, 8 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shchegelskyi 60% vs Vorsuliak 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shchegelskyi 60% vs Vorsuliak 40%
Shchegelskyi
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Shchegelskyi +1 · Vorsuliak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Vorsuliak) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Shchegelskyi form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShchegelskyi 2.10 / Vorsuliak 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Vorsuliak)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13072982
Shchegelskyi2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 65 of 157
Down 0–1, comes back25% 24 of 97
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 53
Vorsuliak1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite60% won 97 of 163
Up 2–0, closes it91% 41 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it78% 69 of 88
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShchegelskyi2wins
AwayVorsuliak8wins
1 of 10 to a deciderVorsuliak leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShchegelskyin = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayVorsuliak75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shchegelskyi2Vorsuliak8n = 10Vorsuliak took 8 of 10
S2Shchegelskyi3Vorsuliak7n = 10Vorsuliak took 7 of 10
S3Shchegelskyi3Vorsuliak7n = 10Vorsuliak took 7 of 10
S4Shchegelskyi2Vorsuliak5n = 7Vorsuliak took 5 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricShchegelskyiVorsuliakS − VBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match33.841.7−7.9per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShchegelskyiVorsuliakBasisWin rate · lifetime473 / 890 vs 445 / 88553.2%50.3%473 / 890 vs 445 / 885Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.238.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VorsuliakShchegelskyi 2.10/Vorsuliak 1.67
Hit
What we said
56.6%
Vorsuliak · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Vorsuliak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 16:35D. Shchegelskyi—10101171Y. Vorsuliak—12128113
LAug 28 · 11:35D. Shchegelskyi—8670Y. Vorsuliak—1111113
LAug 27 · 15:35D. Shchegelskyi—74100Y. Vorsuliak—1111123
LAug 26 · 23:30D. Shchegelskyi—4111081Y. Vorsuliak—11712113
LAug 10 · 23:45D. Shchegelskyi—1176111Y. Vorsuliak—81111133
LAug 10 · 02:45D. Shchegelskyi—381181Y. Vorsuliak—11119113
WAug 3 · 09:39D. Shchegelskyi—811911123Y. Vorsuliak—119117102
LAug 3 · 05:05D. Shchegelskyi—1298171Y. Vorsuliak—101111193
LJul 20 · 05:05D. Shchegelskyi—2700Y. Vorsuliak—1111113
WJul 19 · 12:35D. Shchegelskyi—91116183Y. Vorsuliak—11814161
D. Shchegelskyi10
WSep 7 · 06:35D. Shchegelskyi1.73117112153O. Rodin2.00811911132LSep 7 · 05:35D. Shchegelskyi2.201011111582Y. Vorsuliak1.61125917113LSep 6 · 18:35D. Shchegelskyi2.109970M. Loboda1.671111113LSep 6 · 16:35I. Hrekh1.611111103D. Shchegelskyi2.208780LSep 6 · 15:35D. Shchegelskyi2.20135221Y. Vorsuliak1.61111111113LSep 6 · 14:35M. Khomenko2.10911711113D. Shchegelskyi1.6711611542LSep 6 · 13:05D. Shchegelskyi1.73631181O. Rodin2.001111793LSep 4 · 11:05D. Shchegelskyi2.63121411102V. Slozka1.441011117123LSep 4 · 09:05I. Hrekh1.67111213113D. Shchegelskyi2.106101581LSep 4 · 08:05D. Shchegelskyi2.2091181232A. Romanenko1.611151110113
Y. Vorsuliak10
WSep 7 · 07:05M. Khomenko2.389670Y. Vorsuliak1.531111113WSep 7 · 05:35D. Shchegelskyi2.201011111582Y. Vorsuliak1.61125917113WSep 7 · 04:35Y. Kolos2.1091113842Y. Vorsuliak1.671191111113WSep 6 · 19:05O. Rodin1.839560Y. Vorsuliak1.831111103LSep 6 · 17:35Y. Vorsuliak2.6311611882M. Loboda1.44811311113WSep 6 · 15:35D. Shchegelskyi2.20135221Y. Vorsuliak1.61111111113LSep 6 · 13:35I. Hrekh1.501111113Y. Vorsuliak2.508480WSep 6 · 12:35M. Khomenko2.25119921Y. Vorsuliak1.5791111113WSep 4 · 11:35Y. Vorsuliak2.3812118113A. Romanenko1.531091171LSep 4 · 09:35M. Loboda1.44111411133Y. Vorsuliak2.637166111
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