TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13089324
Played Sep 7Finished
Dmytro Shchegelskyi
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
1–9Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1315811115119118
Maksym Khomenko
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:03 and never touched — 56.1% is still 56.1%
Graded at full timeDmytro Shchegelskyi to win
56.1%
56.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDmytro Shchegelskyi above · Maksym Khomenko below
Set 1 · 13-15
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 102 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Dmytro Shchegelskyi at 56.1%
102 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Shchegelskyi 51–20 Maksym Khomenko Maksym Khomenko has won 20 of their 71 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:03What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Shchegelskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
51-20 in 71
Shchegelskyi
Correct
gap of 31 in 71, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shchegelskyi 1492 vs Khomenko 1660
Khomenko
Wrong
both rated, 168 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shchegelskyi 20% vs Khomenko 80%
Khomenko
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shchegelskyi 10% vs Khomenko 70%
Khomenko
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Shchegelskyi +1 · Khomenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Shchegelskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Khomenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShchegelskyi 1.57 / Khomenko 2.25
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Shchegelskyi)-2.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13089324
Shchegelskyi1.57
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 108 of 188
Up 2–0, closes it98% 39 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it75% 68 of 91
Khomenko2.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog44% won 70 of 159
Down 0–1, comes back31% 31 of 100
Down 0–2, comes back15% 10 of 66
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShchegelskyi6wins
AwayKhomenko4wins
6 of 10 to a deciderShchegelskyi leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShchegelskyi50%3 of 6
AwayKhomenko25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shchegelskyi6Khomenko4n = 10Shchegelskyi took 6 of 10
S2Shchegelskyi5Khomenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Shchegelskyi5Khomenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Shchegelskyi6Khomenko4n = 10Shchegelskyi took 6 of 10
S5Shchegelskyi3Khomenko3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricShchegelskyiKhomenkoS − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match45.643.6+2.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShchegelskyiKhomenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime475 / 902 vs 474 / 85952.7%55.2%475 / 902 vs 474 / 859Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.136.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ShchegelskyiShchegelskyi 1.57/Khomenko 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.1%
Shchegelskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Shchegelskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 14:35D. Shchegelskyi—11611542M. Khomenko—911711113
LAug 30 · 14:35D. Shchegelskyi—113111282M. Khomenko—811914103
WAug 2 · 17:05D. Shchegelskyi—131810133M. Khomenko—111612111
WAug 2 · 01:00D. Shchegelskyi—91111113M. Khomenko—116681
WJul 25 · 22:30D. Shchegelskyi—711711113M. Khomenko—11211792
WJul 19 · 01:00D. Shchegelskyi—111111113M. Khomenko—791341
LJul 12 · 17:05D. Shchegelskyi—91211992M. Khomenko—1110911113
WJul 12 · 24:00D. Shchegelskyi—119811113M. Khomenko—81111742
WJun 14 · 02:00D. Shchegelskyi—981111113M. Khomenko—11117682
LJun 1 · 09:35D. Shchegelskyi—1113761M. Khomenko—81511113
D. Shchegelskyi10
WSep 7 · 10:13Y. Vorsuliak1.67111177102D. Shchegelskyi2.10681111123WSep 7 · 09:05D. Shchegelskyi1.8312311153Y. Kolos1.8310118131WSep 7 · 06:35D. Shchegelskyi1.73117112153O. Rodin2.00811911132LSep 7 · 05:35D. Shchegelskyi2.201011111582Y. Vorsuliak1.61125917113LSep 6 · 18:35D. Shchegelskyi2.109970M. Loboda1.671111113LSep 6 · 16:35I. Hrekh1.611111103D. Shchegelskyi2.208780LSep 6 · 15:35D. Shchegelskyi2.20135221Y. Vorsuliak1.61111111113LSep 6 · 14:35M. Khomenko2.10911711113D. Shchegelskyi1.6711611542LSep 6 · 13:05D. Shchegelskyi1.73631181O. Rodin2.001111793LSep 4 · 11:05D. Shchegelskyi2.63121411102V. Slozka1.441011117123
M. Khomenko10
WSep 7 · 09:44M. Khomenko1.281111113Y. Kolos3.505630LSep 7 · 07:05M. Khomenko2.389670Y. Vorsuliak1.531111113WSep 7 · 06:05Y. Kolos3.258540M. Khomenko1.331111113WSep 7 · 05:05M. Khomenko1.831111113O. Rodin1.833880WSep 6 · 18:05I. Hrekh1.4415730M. Khomenko2.631711113WSep 6 · 17:05M. Khomenko2.101113113O. Rodin1.6761140WSep 6 · 16:05M. Khomenko1.80111143M. Loboda1.914210WSep 6 · 14:35M. Khomenko2.10911711113D. Shchegelskyi1.6711611542LSep 6 · 12:35M. Khomenko2.25119921Y. Vorsuliak1.5791111113LSep 6 · 03:00M. Khomenko1.408470O. Storozhenko2.751111113
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